Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS/ORA, Fort Collins, CO Michelle M. Mainelli, NOAA/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL

1. The Impact of Satellite Data on Real Time Statistical Tropical Cyclone Intensity ForecastsJoint Hurricane Testbed Project Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS/ORA, Fort Collins, COMichelle M. Mainelli, NOAA/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL   Lynn K. Shay, University of Miami, MPO/RSMAS, Miami, FL John A. Knaff, CSU/CIRA, Fort Collins, CO James P. Kossin, UW/SSEC/CIMSS, Madison, WI Presented At The Inter-Departmental Hurricane Conference March, 2003 Miami, FL

2. Project Overview • Goal: To determine if satellite data (GOES and satellite altimetry) can improve the intensity forecasts from the statistical-dynamical SHIPS model • Method: Parallel version of SHIPS with satellite input was run in real-time for 2002 Atlantic season • Parallel version also developed for East Pacific, and run after the season with operational input • Evaluation: Compare operational and parallel SHIPS forecasts for Atlantic and east Pacific

3. The SHIPS Model • Statistical-dynamical model predicts tropical cyclone max winds 0-120 hr • Climatology, persistence, SST and atmospheric (vertical shear, momentum fluxes, etc) predictors • Reynold’s SST, NCEP global forecasting system • Empirical decay for portion of track over land • Run 4 times per day, initiated by the ATCF • Track from adjusted 6-hour old NHC official forecast • LBAR track when no official forecast available • Developed from 1989-2001 sample

4. Parallel Version of SHIPS • Predictors from GOES Imagery • % IR brightness temperature < -20 C, R=50-200 km • Std. Dev. of IR temp, R=100-300 km • Predictors from satellite altimetry data • Ocean Heat Content (OHC) exceeding 50 KJ/cm2 averaged along the forecast track • Method developed by Shay/Mainelli • Atlantic only • Developed using 1995-2001 sample • Predicts correction to operational SHIPS forecast • Dependent data suggest ~5% max improvement at 48 hr

5. Sample GOES Imagery and OHC Analysis Hurricane Floyd 14 Sept 1999 OHC 26 Sept 2002

6. 2002 Evaluation • “New” NHC verification rules • Depressions, subtropical included • Extra-tropical, wave, remnant-lows excluded • Only Decay-SHIPS forecasts considered since many storms were affected by land • Verification samples • Atlantic real-time forecasts (Dolly-TD14) • Atlantic re-runs (all storms) • No GOES or OHC, GOES only, OHC only, GOES+OHC • East Pacific re-runs (all storms) • No GOES, GOES • Re-runs used all operational input • Very similar, but not identical to real-time forecasts

7. Verification of Real-Time 2002 Atlantic Forecasts

8. Improvement of Parallel vs. Operational SHIPS(Real-time 2002 Atlantic Forecasts) N: 238 219 199 185 158 133 118

9. Contributions from GOES/OHC(Atlantic Forecast Re-runs) N: 268 244 219 197 178 163 149 139 132 123

10. Verification of Re-Run 2002 East Pacific Forecasts

11. Improvement of Parallel vs. Operational SHIPS(Re-Run 2002 East Pacific Forecasts)

12. Conclusions • Atlantic • Real-time 12-72 h SHIPS improved by up to 5% • Statistically significant at 90% level 12-36 hr • GOES and OHC both contribute to improvement • Some degradation at day 4 and 5 • East Pacific • Real-time 12-72 h SHIPS improved by up to 8% • Statistically significant at 90% level 12-72 hr • Some degradation at day 4 and 5 • Suggestions to JHT: • Study individual forecasts in more detail • Add 2002 cases to developmental sample • Run in parallel again in 2003

13. Future Plans • On average, SHIPS model has skill out to 72 hours (10-15% over SHIFOR, 1997-2002) • Wide variation in performance from storm to storm • Primary limitations • Upper-end of rapid intensification • 100-140 kt range • Add recon data to SHIPS (new JHT proposal) • “False Alarm” storms • Lack of thermodynamic information? • Analyze new hyperspectral (AIRS) tropical soundings

14. Operational SHIPS forecasts forAlberto 2000 and Lili 2002