SEER: The Current State presented to NASA CAS 2005

1. Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 1 SEER: The Current Statepresented to NASA CAS 2005

2. 2 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 Galorath Mission Statement Help engineers, managers and cost analysts plan and control critical projects with advanced modeling tools and services: This is accomplished by providing: 1. SEER software for management planning & control and for cost analysis; 2. User training in tool implementation and methodology to enhance decision making and process refinement 3. Product tailoring to meet customer specific requirements 4. Management planning, control and cost services to assist in the implementation of the tools and methodologies SEER: Empowering project estimation, planning & control

3. 3 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 SEER Products Provide Complete Total Cost of Ownership Solutions SEER-H with Total System Vision Estimate and Analyze the Development, Production, Operations & Support and System Level Costs Integrating your SEER-SEM (software) and SEER-DFM (detail production) estimates into a single project rollup with complete associativity The SEER Software Estimation and Project Control Suite Estimate and Analyze the Development and Maintenance of Software Projects with respect to Cost, Schedule, Effort, Risk and Reliability SEER-DFM (Design for Manufacturability) Estimate and Analyze Detail Production Costs – Part Labor Costs, Tooling Costs, Material Costs

4. 4 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 SEER Products SEER Lifecycle Cost Evaluation SEER-H with Total System Vision SEER-Spyglass SEER-IC The SEER Software Estimation and Project Control Suite SEER-SEM (Software Estimation Model) SEER-AccuScope SEER-SEM Client for MS Project SEER-PPMC (Parametric Project Monitoring and Control) SEER-ScatterPlot SEER-ProjectMiner SEER-DFM (Design for Manufacturability) Machining Mold/Cast/Forge Finishing Electrical Assembly Printed Circuit Board Assembly Mechanical Assembly Fabrication 3 Levels of Composites SEER-RateMaker

5. 5 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 What Does SEER-H Estimate? System Level Cost Estimation System program management System engineering and integration System test operations System integration, assembly and test System support equipment Development Estimation Design Prototypes Tooling Production Estimation Direct Labor--fabrication, integration, assembly Indirect Labor- production support, overhead, Management, etc. Material--raw materials, purchased components Operations & Support Scenario Estimation Program schedule Product reliability Product maintainability Product availability

6. 6 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 System Level Costs System Level Cost analysis can be added to your SEER-H estimate by setting parameters at the project or rollup level. When applied, it takes into account all child work elements (including software) in every branch that leads to the rollup. It considers these work elements to be collectively designed to fulfill a common, non-trivial purpose, preparation for which requires incurring costs above and beyond their standalone costs and the costs of creating the appropriate interfaces for the individual elements. System Level Costs use the labor and material costs of the subsystems along with system level complexity factors to compute system level costs. System level costs are reported for both recurring and non-recurring activities.

7. 7 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 System Level Cost - Outputs SLC: An initiative to incorporate system level costs into SEER-H Purpose: to allow estimators to include both subsystem and system level costs in a single estimate Initial data research effort funded by NASA IPAO Main source of data: NAFCOM 2002 database Other sources: Industry survey, in-house data and expert opinion Up to five distinct system level cost increments can be estimated (or omitted if deemed inappropriate) in development: System program management (SPM) System engineering and integration (SEI) System test operations (STO) System integration, assembly and test (IAT) System support equipment (SSE) Up to three distinct system level cost increments can be estimated (or omitted if deemed inappropriate) in production: SPM; SEI; IAT

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10. 10 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 What is SEER-DFM? Bottoms –Up Parametric Cost Model Based on Standards Parametric Forecasting Estimates At the Process Level Estimates Average Unit and Total Production costs Labor Material Tooling Bases Estimates on Process Parameters Part Size, Process Types and Steps, Lot Size, Etc. Provides Design Team with the ability to make smart decisions from the “Back of the Napkin” to the CAD Program Phases, Which Reduces Downstream Manufacturing Costs Provides the Design Team with Real Time Cost Feedback Provides a Systematic Repeatable Estimating Process Reports Production Cost estimates in a variety of formats

11. 11 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 What Does SEER-DFM Estimate?

12. 12 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 Basic SEER-DFM Manufacturing Processes

13. 13 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 Basic SEER-DFM Manufacturing Processes (cont.)

14. 14 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 What Does SEER-SEM Do? SEER-SEM uses a combination of: Sizing metrics and techniques (SLOC, Function Points and others), Parametric algorithms Knowledge Bases (industry data), Simulation-based probability analysis techniques, and User supplied data to estimate and analyze the development and maintenance of software projects… with respect to Cost Schedule Effort Risk (probability of success) Reliability (Defects)

15. 15 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 SEER: Process Focus (CMMI) Project Planning Establish Estimates Develop a Project Plan Obtain Commitment to the Plan Project Monitoring and Control Monitor Project Against Plan Manage Corrective Action to Closure Measurement and Analysis Align Measurement and Analysis Activities Provide Measurement Results

16. 16 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 SEER: Methods Project Planning History-Based Sizing Direct Measure Sizing Parametric Estimation Project Monitoring and Control 4-D Performance Measurement At-a-Glance Status Indication Performance-based Prediction Measurement and Analysis Estimation Accuracy Assessment and Improvement Calibration Knowledge Base Management Benchmarking

17. 17 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 SEER: Tools Project Planning SEER-AccuScope SEER-SEM Project Miner (SEER-SEM option) SEER-H SEER-IC SEER-DFM SEER-SEM Client for Microsoft Project (SEER-SEM option) Project Monitoring and Control Parametric Project Monitoring and Control (SEER-SEM option) Measurement and Analysis SEER-RDB SEER-ScatterPlot (SEER-SEM option) Databases SEER-DB SEER-RDB

18. 18 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 A Common Question In SEER-SEM, can I enter my actual effort once the project is underway and will the tool recalibrate my estimate? The right answer is NO - it’s not enough just to give actual hours Just because you spent 50% of a planned budget doesn’t mean your are 50% done What the project manager needs to know: How much more money, how many people, for how long? How can the project be adjusted to meet objectives? To do this, you need assess the project status in terms of progress, not just in terms of expenditure

19. 19 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 Software Project ManagementFully Managed Project

20. 20 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 What is PPMC?Features A set of add-on features to SEER-SEM that enable project monitoring and control of software development projects Features include: Inputs for actual effort and project progress as well as for certain project metrics Performance Measurement calculations Reporting to provide information on project status PPMC employs 4-D Performance Measurement Activity Completion Expenditures Artifact Completion Defect Discovery/Removal

21. 21 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 Why PPMC?Benefits Performance Measurement is considered a best practice for monitoring and controlling software projects Performance Measurement can be improved: More fidelity in determining progress (Earned Value) Better prediction and re-baselining capability by coupling to-date performance with established estimation methods PPMC adds monitoring and control capabilities to SEER-SEM by combining: Accepted algorithms currently used for cost and schedule estimation during the project planning process Accepted equations currently used for traditional Performance Measurement

22. 22 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 Performance Measurement:Measures and Metrics Fundamental Cost of Work Measures Baseline Budget – Budget at Completion (BAC) Planned – Budgeted Cost of the Work Scheduled (BCWS) Earned – Budgeted Cost of the Work Performed (BCWP) Spent – Actual Cost of the Work Performed (ACWP) Variances (Differences between Cost of Work Measures) Schedule Variance (SV) Cost Variance (CV) Budget Variance (BV) Time Variance (TV)

23. 23 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 Performance Measurement:Measures and Metrics Performance Indices – (Ratios Between Cost of Work Measures) Schedule Performance Index (SPI) Cost Performance Index (CPI) Budget Performance Index (BPI) Time Performance Index (TPI) Composite Performance Index (XPI) To-Complete Performance Index (TCPI) Status and Forecasting Metrics Estimate at Completion (EAC) Estimate to Complete (ETC)

24. 24 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 Tracking a Project Once a project is started, the PPMC process may begin Start with a SEER-SEM “Current Estimate” Upon approval, make the “Current Estimate” the Baseline Measure project progress and expenditure periodically and/or aperiodically and record data “Snapshots” At each “Snapshot” point in time: Analyze all of the various Performance Measurement metrics and indicators and identify potential problems Report analysis findings to stakeholders Replan (revisit the estimate) as required Modify “Current Estimate” in SEER-SEM until it reasonably matches actual progress (BCWP) and actual expenditure (ACWP) to date Upon approval, save the current Baseline and then make the “Current Estimate” the new Baseline

25. 25 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 The Baseline A baseline freezes the current estimate The baseline provides the yardstick against which the project is tracked and evaluated Allows you to do trades with the current estimate while maintaining the planning baseline A baseline can be updated at any time The current estimate may be set back to the baseline at any time

26. 26 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 The Snapshot Snapshots are a picture of the project’s metrics at any give point in time The snapshot includes two key components: Work Complete Actual Effort Work Complete describes the progress in terms of milestone completion Actual Effort includes hours as well as size and defect metrics Snapshots are flexible in terms of interval or frequency Regular snapshots – e.g. monthly or quarterly As needed – e.g. before a key review

27. 27 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 Reporting PPMC reports and charts are based on the most recent snapshot entered Work complete metrics are used to evaluate remaining effort and schedule (Estimate To Complete) Estimate At Complete = Actual Effort + ETC

28. 28 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 Example Project: Metrics Charts at Project Start (Initial Plan)

29. 29 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 Example Project: Metrics Chartsat Software Requirements Review

30. 30 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 Example Project: Metrics Chartsat Preliminary Design Review

31. 31 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 Example Project: Metrics Chartsat Critical Design Review

32. 32 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 Example Project: Metrics Chartsat Code & Unit Test Complete

33. 33 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 Example Project: Metrics Chartsat Component Integration Complete

34. 34 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 Example Project: Metrics Chartsat Program Test Complete

35. 35 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 Example Project: Metrics Chartsat Delivery

36. 36 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 PPMC: Summary Enables powerful evaluation of a project’s progress Utilizes Performance Measurement best practices Capitalizes on parametric model’s ability to replan and forecast based on current project assumptions Flexible – doesn’t require regular care and feeding, you can use it only when you need to Provides a significant contribution to the project management continuum

37. 37 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 SEER TRAINING SEER-H and SEER-SEM Core Training 3 Days of presentation, discussion and extensive hands-on exercises and case studies Public Workshop – available quarterly (Galorath HQ – El Segundo, CA) Private (on-site) Advanced Training 2 Days more sophisticated use of the tools, integration and customization as well as introductions to specialized SEER add-ons Public Workshop – available quarterly (Galorath HQ – El Segundo, CA) Private (on-site) SEER-DFM 4 to 5 Days of presentation, discussion and extensive hands-on exercises and case studies Private (on-site)

38. 38 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 SEER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES The mission of our Professional Services branch is to ensure our customer’s success by providing world-class capabilities in the application of Galorath products to real-world projects. QuickStart Assessment (QSA) Implementation Services JumpStart Program * Estimating and Proposal Support Independent Cost Estimation Custom Modeling Solutions * NASA has prepaid JumpStarts available.

39. 39 Ó Galorath Incorporated 2005 +1 (310) 414-3222 US (703-201-0651) info@galorath.com www.galorath.com +44 (0) 1252 720 629 UK For More InformationPlease contact us at: