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A Dynamic Air Pollution Prediction System DAPPS

Mark Zunckel & Eugene Cairncross CSIR Pen Technikon SAWS SRK. A Dynamic Air Pollution Prediction System DAPPS. Innovation Fund. Dept Arts, Culture, Science & Technology Call for consortia South African partners Large projects, e.g. 3-years

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A Dynamic Air Pollution Prediction System DAPPS

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  1. Mark Zunckel & Eugene Cairncross CSIR Pen Technikon SAWS SRK A Dynamic Air Pollution Prediction SystemDAPPS

  2. Innovation Fund • Dept Arts, Culture, Science & Technology • Call for consortia • South African partners • Large projects, e.g. 3-years • Contribution in specified key areas, e.g. biotechnology, technology & information

  3. Air Quality Management Sources Management Intervention Chemistry Transport Deposition Dispersion Receptor impact Ambient concentrations Modeling or monitoring

  4. Air Quality Monitoring • Site specific • Selected pollutants • Accurate • Continuous • Expensive • Can be integrated with modelling

  5. Air Quality Modelling • Spatially continuous • A range of pollutants • Estimation of concentrations • Average concentrations • Cost effective • Integrated with monitoring

  6. DAPPS • Sources: Compile a comprehensive emissions inventory • Meteorology: SAWS forecast fields • Dispersion: Photochemical dispersion model • Receptors: Spatially resolved grid • Forecast map of air pollution data and indicators • Information to manage air quality

  7. The output, an example..

  8. High • Medium

  9. Communicating the forecast • Air pollution data and indicators • Map of an area with a number scale or color scale indicating potential health risk • Interactive web site, updated ever 24 hours • Daily newspaper? Other methods?

  10. What DAPPS will not do! • DAPPS will have limitations • Quality of input data • Uncertainty in meteorological predictions • Assumptions in dispersion model • Spatial resolution • Scenario modelling • DAPPS cannot manage air quality

  11. Validation of the system • Meteorological forecast On going validation at SAWS • Source model Point sources Mobile sources Domestic sources • Dispersion model Comparison of estimations with monitored data

  12. Project structure • 3 year research & development project • Number of specialist components to be developed and integrated with one another • Maintain a two-way communications with a number of stakeholders

  13. Project Plan • Year 1: Project launch, components of DAPPS system running independently • Year 2: Integration of the components • Year 3: DAPPS running in test location • Stakeholder involvement throughout the development

  14. Potential sites: Durban (SIB) Richards Bay PE/Coega Cape Metro Vaal Triangle Platinum Area Pietermaritzburg Criteria for selection: Stakeholders buy-in Data availability Digital information Issue (s) Range of source types History /other work Isolation from sources Local by-laws Running costs Complex meteorology Why Cape Town?

  15. Conclusion We believe that we can develop a system to assist in the management of air quality & CMC is our prefered development site To make it happen, we need: • Your buy-in as key stakeholders, • Your input now to help specify the outputs of the system; to influence the design of the system, • Your input throughout the system development.

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