Public Weather Services and Nowcasting

1. Public Weather Services and Nowcasting Haleh Kootval Chief Public Weather Services Programme HKootval@wmo.int

2. Purposes of Public Weather Services Delivery of weather and related services in support of: Safety of life Protection of property Welfare and convenience Primary role of NMSs Visibility of NMSs

3. Guiding principles Thepopulation’s rightto weather services for safety, convenience and well-being A single officialsource for severe weather warnings Issue warningsin time to allow protective action

4. What do we need to do? Increaseawarenessof hazards and their impact Provide information that iseasily accessible and understandableeverywhere: Dissemination andcommunication Utilizewarning services to enable effectivedecision-making: user focus Important elements in application of nowcasting to PWS

5. PWS Nowcasting WorkshopSydney 2006 • Deliverable of CBS PWS OPAG ET/DPM • Fast developing severe weather systems have life span of hours • Challenge to forecast • Of great interest to the public, media and disaster management • Advances in technology and science: better prediction • Advances in communications: more timely and direct delivery

6. Overall Objective • Create a forum for • Nowcast system designers • PWS operational and managers • Media • Disaster managers • Communicators and educators • Explore possibilities of maximizing the application of nowcasting systems • Generate new or improved PWS products for benefit of community • Transfer technology from developed to developing world

7. JOint Nowcasting Applications Services (JONAS) • Follow up to the Sydney Workshop (Geneva, April 2007): M.C. Wong, T. Keenan • Developed a Joint PWSP-WWRP Nowcasting Applications Implementation Plan • Produced a draft business plan for a PWS Nowcasting Applications framework.

8. JONAS Mission “increase the capacity of NMHSs to deliver reliable nowcasts to enable informed decision-making in mitigating the effects of high impact weather and weather-related disasters.”

9. ToRs JONAS SC • Facilitate the identification of user needs and the engagement of users for nowcast applications in PWS; • Promote the operational use of end-to-end nowcasting techniques, processes and systems; • Provide guidance material on nowcasting applications in PWS, establish an inventory of existing operational nowcasting tools, processes and capabilities; • Provide recommendations to PWSP on the endorsement and priority of projects focusing on end-to-end nowcasting activities; capacity building; and facilitate regional multi-national collaboration, • Provide a link between PWSP and WWRP • Report to PWSP and WWRP the progress made in projects and the use of nowcasting products among WMO Members; and • Facilitate the assessment of the societal and economic benefits of nowcasting applications in PWS

10. Existing and new Opportunities • Establish pilot projects:test beds • Outcomes: • More effective observing and processing systems, better use of data in forecasts, improved services and products, and economic as well as public safety benefits. • Acceleration of the translation of research findings into better operational services and decision-making.

11. Shanghai World EXPO 2010 Nowcasting Service Demonstration Project (WENS) • CBS PWS OPAG ICT: Shanghai, May 2008 • The Goals: • In the context of the multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS), to demonstrate how nowcasting applications can enhance short-range forecasts of high-impact weather using the opportunity afforded by the World EXPO 2010; • Promote the understanding and enhance the capability, as appropriate, of WMO Members in nowcasting services.

12. Objectives • Provide advancedhigh impact weather nowcasting products and services for the World EXPO 2010; • Enhance the capacity of the SMB in MHEWS to: • Effectively present the information to the decision makers and the public. • Demonstrate the application of advanced nowcasting systems in operational forecasting and in the generation of enhanced products and services; • Evaluate the impact of the implementation; • Promote the implementation of nowcasting services in the Shanghai region initially and ultimately for the benefit of WMO Members, especially those in East Asia.

13. Before full operation • 1. Established WENS Scientific Steering Group (SSG), TORs, draft business plan for WENS. Sep. 2008 • 2. Finalized TORs and WENS Business Plan, deliverables funding arrangements (SSG) in mid Dec. 2008. • 3. Implemented Business Plan (SMB/CMA, WENSWG, PSOs). Oct. 2009. • 4. First trial run (WENSWG). Jul.-Aug. 2009 • 5. Interim Review Meeting: validated performance of systems engaged key stakeholders/users; adjusted Business Plan as appropriate (SSG). Oct.2009

14. Full operationApr.26 - Oct. 31 2010 • WENS Participant Systems • CMA • SWAN(Severe Weather Automatic Nowcast system) • BJANC(Beijing Auto-Nowcastor) • NoCAWS(NowCAsting and Warning System) • STI-WARR(Shanghai Typhoon Institute – WRF ADAS-3DVar Rapid Refresh system) • Australia BOM – STEPS(Short Term Ensemble Prediction System) • HKO– SWIRLS(Short-range Warning of Intense Rainstorms in Localized

15. Issues of concern • Focus on impact evaluation • Focus on how to evaluate nowcasting • Focus on how to deliver nowcasting services to different users

16. Follow up Plan • Post-project survey to assess impact of WENS . (December 2010-February 2011) • Final Review Meeting and Report Preparation • Publication of Guidelines on provision of nowcasting services reflecting experience of WENS • Capacity Building Workshop for WMO Members ( by end 2011)

17. Future of PWS and Nowcasting? • Opportunities for demonstration projects • How to apply WENS experience? • Revival of JONAS • Continue collaboration with WWRP • Funding?

18. Thank you