Population Forecast and Malthus

1. Population Forecast and Malthus Chapter 2 sections 6 – 8

2. Terms/Concepts • Demographics • Thomas Malthus and his theory

3. Demographics • Demographics - the study of population

4. Declining Birth Rates • Population hit a peak of growth around 1970 • NIR has beendecliningon a global scale- it now sits at 1.2% • Two population reduction strategies: • 1. Education and health care • 2. Distribution of contraceptives • Due to cultural and religious beliefs the most effective method varies from country to country

5. Declining Birth Rates Lowering birth rates through health care Works together with bettering economic conditions in a given area In nations where women are able to attend school longer the birth rates are lower than nations who do not have women receiving a full education Well-developed health care has helped infant mortality rate decrease Education about contraceptives and sexually transmitted diseases has also played a major role in the decline in birth rates

6. Declining Birth Rates Lowering birth rates through contraception Economic development will help decrease birth rates in the long run In societies that have lower status of women there are higher birth rates as compared to countrieswith the opposite Nations that show lower contraception use show higher birth rates The main reason that contraceptive use is not as wide spread is due to religious beliefs We have seen major growth in the last couple years in nations who do not have either contraceptives or health care education

7. Population Futures • World population will still increase, but at a slower rate than in the past. • The principal reason for declining natural increase rates in less developed countries today is declining birth rates • Components of future population growth • Fertility is the primary determinant.

8. Population Futures • Demographic transition possible stage 5 • Negative NIR • Many developed countries are predicted to experience population decline. • Factor of more elderly than young population in these countries • Fewer young women who will be entering their childbearing years

9. Population Futures

10. Population Futures – India vs. China • These two countries comprise more than one-third of the world’s population.

11. Population Futures – India vs. China India’s population policies Beginning in 1971, citizens paid to be sterilized Now a stronger emphasis on education as family planning Limited success

12. Population Futures – India vs. China • China’s population policies • Beginning in 1980, one-child policy • Financial and other incentives to limit family size • Greater prosperity in China has led to a relaxation of one-child policy • Now a stronger emphasis on education as family planning • Family-planning fees

13. Who is this? What do you think about his theory? What did he believe about Population?

14. Malthus Grim Forecast

15. Malthus Grim Forecast • Malthus’s theory and reality • Globally, Malthus’s theory has not been supported during the past 50 years. • World food production has increased faster than the NIR. • Hunger and famine are distribution problems and not production problems. • Cultural, economic, and technological change has slowed population growth.

16. Where do you think the US falls in terms of Resources?

17. Do you think the US should send aid to countries that are ailing?

18. Population Growth • Population Growth Video • Hans Rosling

19. Terms/Concepts Demographics Thomas Malthus and his Theory