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Initial Water Demand Estimates For Three 2030 Scenarios

Initial Water Demand Estimates For Three 2030 Scenarios. David Groves RAND. 1 st Cut at Quantifying Narrative Scenarios. Steps Build model Identify parameter values unique to scenarios Compute results. No single method for choosing numerical values for parameters.

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Initial Water Demand Estimates For Three 2030 Scenarios

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  1. Initial Water Demand EstimatesFor Three 2030 Scenarios David Groves RAND

  2. 1st Cut at QuantifyingNarrative Scenarios • Steps • Build model • Identify parameter values unique to scenarios • Compute results

  3. No single method for choosing numerical values for parameters • There is no “correct” scenario • Other modeling studies can inform quantification • Ex: DOF demographic projects – good choice for Current Trends • Important to quantify drivers independently of scenario results (water demand) • Check intermediate results for plausibility

  4. Demand Driver Results • Please consult “Quantified Narrative Scenarios” hand-out • New rows…

  5. Total Population Current Trends: DOF Resource Sustain: DOF Resource Intensive: Old DOF

  6. Current Trends: DOF Resource Sustain: DOF Resource Intensive: DOF + 25% / 16% Population Distribution Population Change 2030-2000

  7. Housing (Population Density) Current Trends: 36% MF housing (2000) Resource Sustain: 46% MF (+10%) Resource Intensive: 31% MF (-5%)

  8. Employees Current Trends: Driven by population* Resource Sustain: Driven by population* Resource Intensive: Driven by population* *Replace with 2030 DOF projections when data available

  9. Changes in Water Use Coefficients • Changes in WUC captures • Response to prices, income, natural conservation and efficiency • Current Trends • 10% decrease in WUC from 2000-2030 • Resource Sustainability • 20% decrease in WUC from 2000-2030 • Resource Intensive • 5% decrease in WUC from 2000-2030

  10. Summary of Urban Drivers

  11. Irrigated Area Current Trends: ICA – Current Trends, MA/ILA – 6%->10% Resource Sustain: ICA – Constant, MA/ILA – 6%->14% Resource Intensive: ICA – Constant, MA/ILA – 6%->23%

  12. Irrigation Applied Water • Reflects all factors affecting water use per crop type • Also reflects changes in cropping patterns • Can disaggregate in future • Current Trends • 5% decrease in AW from 2000-2030 • Resource Sustainability • 10% decrease in AW from 2000-2030 • Resource Intensive • Constant AW

  13. Summary of Irrigation Demand Factors

  14. Environmental Water Demand • Unmet needs based upon memo from Environmental Defense (Dec. 8, 2003) • Current Trends • 100% Unmet Needs by 2030 • Resource Sustainability • 150% Unmet Needs by 2030 • Resource Intensive • 100% Unmet Needs by 2030

  15. Results

  16. Urban Water Demand

  17. Urban Demand Change – by sector and zone 2030-2000 by Sector 2030-2000 by Zone South/dry = SC, CR, SL Valley = SR, SJ, TL North/coast = NC, SF, CC, NL

  18. Results – Agricultural Demand

  19. Urban, Ag, Envir. Demand By Region South/dry = SC, CR, SL Valley = SR, SJ, TL North/coast = NC, SF, CC, NL

  20. Total Demand South/dry = SC, CR, SL Valley = SR, SJ, TL North/coast = NC, SF, CC, NL

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