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Cost-Effective Environmental Measures for EU-25: CAFE Policy Scenarios

Explore the CAFE policy scenarios for optimizing emission reductions, costs, and environmental benefits in the EU-25 region. The study assesses the impact of various measures on pollutants like SO2, NOx, VOCs, and more, aiming to achieve ambitious targets by 2020.

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Cost-Effective Environmental Measures for EU-25: CAFE Policy Scenarios

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  1. The three CAFE policy scenarios Markus Amann, Janusz Cofala, Chris Heyes, Zbigniew Klimont, Wolfgang Schöpp, Fabian Wagner

  2. Assumptions • CAFE baseline “with climate measures” for 2020 • Agricultural projections without CAP reform • Further measures for road emissions taken • Meteorology of 1997

  3. Costs for gap closures between CLE and MTFR *) excluding costs for road sources

  4. Composite gap closure indicatorsSum of gap closure percentages of all environmental end points

  5. Targets selected for the optimization

  6. Emission control costsfor three ambition levels for the four targets*) *) excluding costs for road sources

  7. PM Eutrophication Ozone Acid, forests Acid, lakes Acid, semi-nat. Effects in 2000 and for CAFE medium ambition 2020

  8. Optimized emission reductions for EU-25of the D23 scenarios [2000=100%]

  9. Costs per pollutant for EU-25on top of CLE

  10. SO2 Low sulphur coal Low sulphur heavy fuel oil Flue gas desulphurization NOx Combustion modifications Selective non-catalytic and catalytic reduction NOx reduction from light- and heavy-duty diesel vehicles Measures taken in the D23 medium ambition scenario • PM • High efficiency dedusters • New boiler types in the residential sector • Good housekeeping measures on oil boilers • Low sulphur fuels for (national) sea traffic

  11. Ammonia Application of pig and cattle manures with low ammonia application measures Substituting ammonium nitrate by urea Covers on manure storage for pigs and cattle Changes in feeding strategies Measures taken in the D23 medium ambition scenario • VOC • Control of fugitive losses in organic chemical industry • Switch emulsion bitumen in road paving • Paint application (coatings) • Stage II VOC controls • Liquid fuel production (improved flare and reduction of fugitive losses)

  12. Distribution of costs[€/person/year] *) excluding costs for road sources

  13. Distribution of physical benefitsCAFE Case “B” % point improvements in total European effect indicators*), sum over four effects *) between CLE and MTFR

  14. Conclusions • Three cases calculated for three ambition levels: costs of 6, 11 and 15 billion €/year • For targets on PM, eutrophication, acidification and ozone • Resulting emission reductions are cost-effective and have equitable distributions of costs and physical benefits

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