Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Presidents

1. Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Presidents • 100% male • 100% Caucasian • 97% Protestant • 82% of British ancestry • 77% college educated • 69% politicians • 62% lawyers • >50% from the top 3% wealth and social class • 0.5% born into poverty • 69% elected from large states

2. Constitutional Qualifications • Must be at least 35 years old • Must have lived in the United States for 14 years • Must be a natural born citizen

3. Presidential Benefits • $400,000 tax-free salary • $50,000/year expense account • $100,000/year travel expenses • The White House • Secret Service protection • Camp David country estate • Air Force One personal airplane • Staff of 400-500

4. Head of State

5. Chief Executive

6. Commander-in-Chief

7. Chief Legislator

8. Chief Diplomat

9. Political Party Leader

10. Presidential Power • Difference between legal powers and power (which is the exercise of influence). • Powers include the constitutional and legal authority of the president: • National Security Powers: Commander in Chief, make treaties & executive agreements, nominate ambassadors. • Legislative Powers: State of the Union--recommend legislation, convene/adjourn Congress, veto. • Executive Powers: to faithfully execute the law; nominate executive officials (and fire them). • Judicial Powers: reprieves and pardons for federal offenses; appoint federal judges and S.C. justices.

11. Presidential Power • How much power (not powers) do presidents have? Depends on the political context in which they govern– something which they have little control over. • Presidential power is the power to persuade-- presidents must often bargain in order to persuade. Few things can be done alone. • Examples: FDR, GW Bush. • Viewed this way, power (influence) fluctuates from president to president, and within presidencies.

12. The Constituencies of Modern Presidency • The American People; • Their Party; • Executive Branch (the bureaucracy); • Congress; • Foreign Leaders. • All of these look to the president for leadership. • May see things differently, however. • A President’s ability to persuade relates more to things he cannot control (e.g. partisan division of Congress), rather than things they can control.

15. The President & the Public • Public approval is an important resource for presidential leadership. Where is Bush now? • Approval fluctuates with time. • The honeymoon: Approval generally highest early during the term. • Generally declines over time. • Approval levels typically reflect public evaluation of the handling of important issues (economy, war, etc.). • They are not a reflection of their feelings regarding the president’s personality.

16. The natural decline of approval over time

17. Average approval during terms (1st term Bush)

18. The President & the Public • The salient issuestend to be most important in determining public approval. Priming. • Rally events help explain sudden upsurges in approval as a result of a foreign policy event involving the US. • Most approval rallies are short-lived, however. • 9/11 would be an example of an enduring rally, one that is not typical.

20. Presidential Effects on Opinion • Presidents try to persuade the public to gain support, generally, and for specific proposals. • How successful are they? • It depends. Popular presidents are more likely to be successful. • For a speech to work, the public must react favorably, and then make it clear to Congress what they want. • Presidential speeches designed to influence the public have generally been unimpressive. • They rarely persuade the public.

21. Presidents & the Executive Branch • As chief executive, President is charged with overseeing vast federal bureaucracy. • Size of executive branch has increased drastically since the 1930s. • Before 1939, presidents had little help in this task. 1939- creation of the Executive Office of the Presidency (EOP). Has 11 offices, incl: • National Security Council • The Council of Economic Advisors • The Office of Management and Budget (OMB)-- most important.

22. Presidents, White House Staff & Cabinet • The Cabinet includes department secretaries. • Modern presidents rely less on their cabinet for advice. • Cabinet secretaries have mixed loyalties. • Must satisfy Congress & interests. • Hence, modern presidents have relied on EOP to manage bureaucracy and their White House staff for political and policy advice. • White House staff work directly for President. • This might limit diversity of advice.

23. Managing/Leading the Bureaucracy • Despite their role as chief executive, modern presidents have been frustrated leading the bureaucracy. • Agencies often resist presidential leadership. • Modern presidents have tools to help in task: • The appointment power. Changing agency leadership can influence what agencies do. • Budgetary control. Using the carrot and stick of agency resources, presidents request budgets. • Centralized management, through the OMB.

24. Presidential Leadership of Congress • Myth of strong presidents dominating Congress. • Evidence suggests otherwise. Presidents are weak relative to Congress, must bargain to persuade. • President’s greatest influence: what goes into the legislative funnel (legislativeagenda setting). • ~40% of legislative agenda are presidential initiatives. • Rises to ~50% during unified gov’t; Only ~25% during divided government.

25. Presidential Leadership of Congress • Most powerful legislative tool: the Veto. • Requires 2/3rds majority in both chambers of Congress to pass bill over a veto. • Very difficult to override. Only 12% of vetoes (since Eisenhower) have been overridden. • Even fewer overrides recently (see table). • The Veto is a tool of minority presidents (presidents during divided government). • Threat of veto important as well. • Presidents can help shape legislation through veto threats.

27. 3 Essential Leadership Resources • 1. Political Party. Members of his party are predisposed to support the president. • On average a member of the president’s party supports the president about 70% of the time. • Has increased during polarized era. • Much lower among the opposing party. • Presidents have little impact on the number of their partisans in Congress. • Presidential coattails-- uncommon, and disappears by the midterm election.

29. 2006 GW Bush -30 -6

30. 3 Essential Leadership Resources • 2. Public Support can help the president persuade Congress. • A necessary, but insufficient resource for leadership. • Results are mixed, but most research suggests only a marginal relationship between approval and legislative support. • 3. Legislative skills. Some presidents are more skilled than others. • Bargaining takes skill, understanding of process. • Skilled presidents generally best at determining an effective strategy.

31. Presidential Legislative Strategies for Success • Move quickly once elected. • Take advantage of the “honeymoon” that follows inauguration. • Legislative success usually comes early. • Focus the agenda by setting clear priorities on a few important items. • Understand the strategic situation. Many presidents attempt too much, given context. • Consult with Congress, don’t alienate them.