Qualifications for U.S. Presidents

1. Qualifications for U.S. Presidents What Sarah Palin Tells Us About Public Opinion Measurement and Public Opinion Lee B. Becker University of Georgia, USA

2. John McCain announced her selection on Aug. 29, 2008. • McCain turned 72 that day, making him the oldest candidate ever nominated for a first term by a major party for the U.S. presidency. • Questions had been raised about his health. • Democratic nominee Barack Obama had turned 47 earlier in August and was in his his first term in the U.S. Senate, having also served in the Illinois state legislature. • Obama had selected Joe Biden, who would turn 66 in November, as his vice presidential nominee. • Biden had served in the Senate since 1972 and had considerable experience on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, having twice been its chair. Picture from wikipedia

3. Sarah Palin was 44. She had attended four colleges before completing a degree in journalism from the University of Idaho. • She had been a beauty pageant contestant, a high school athlete, and a sports journalist. • Palin entered politics in 1992 by winning a seat on the city council of Wasilla, Alaska, a city of 9,000 residents near the capital of Anchorage. • She was elected mayor four years later and served in that capacity for six years. • She was elected governor of Alaska in November of 2006 and assumed that office the next month. • She was mother of five children, including a child less than a year old with learning disabilities and a 17-year-old oldest child who was pregnant but not married. • She had traveled little and had no foreign policy experience. Picture from wikipedia

4. Reaction of Elite • Obama news release: “Today, John McCain put the former mayor of a town of 9,000 with zero foreign policy experience a heartbeat away from the presidency.” • The media tried to find out more about her, convey her record and biography, and calculate her impact on the race, according findings of Campaign Coverage Index from the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism for the week of Sept. 1-7. • Palin was a significant or dominant factor in 60% of the campaign stories. • The naming of Palin was the top campaign story of the week. • Palin’s family and her record were in the top five.

5. And the Polling Elite • More than 500 questions in the archive of The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Connecticut . • 22 questions including the word “qualified” were asked about Palin. • 17 questions used the word “experience” in a question about Palin. • 10 questions used the words Palin and “prepared.” • 8 questions used Palin and “ability” in a question. • The only type of question that was asked more commonly about Palin across the campaign was one in which “favorable” appeared. A question of that type was asked 81 times.

6. Is Palin Qualified? • PSRA/Newsweek: Do you think Sarah Palin is qualified to step in as president if she has to. • NBC/WSJ: Do you feel Sarah Palin is qualified to be president if the need arises, or is she not qualified to be president. • LAT/Bloomberg: Do you thing Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin is qualified to become president of the United States if something happens to John McCain, or is she not qualified? • Gallup & CNN/ORC: Based on what you know about Sarah Palin, do you think she is qualified to serve as president if it becomes necessary, or not?

7. Is Palin Qualified (continued) • Pew: Based on what you know about the Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, do you think she is qualifed to serve as president, if it becomes necessary, or not? • CBS/NYT: If John McCainis elected president and cannot finish his term in office, do you think Sarah Palin would be qualified to serve as President, or would you be concerned about her? • Ipsos/McClatchy: Do you think Sarah Palin is qualified to be president.

9. Does Palin Have Experience? • ABC/WashPost: Do you think Sarah Palin does or does or does not have the kind of experience it takes to serve effectively as president, if that became necessary? • AP/Gfk: In your opinion, please tell me whether you think each of the following candidates does or does not have the right type of experience to successfully serve as President of the United States. If you don’t know enough about the person, just let me know…Sarah Palin

11. Is Palin Prepared? • CBS/NYT: Do you think Sarah Palin is prepared for the job of Vice President, or isn’t she?

13. Four Polls Selected • Survey by Newsweek and Princeton Survey Research Associates International, September 10-September 11, 2008). • Survey by Newsweek and Princeton Survey Research Associates International, October 8-9, 2008). • Survey by Newsweek and Princeton Survey Research Associates International, October 22-October 23, 2008). • Survey by Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and Princeton Survey Research Associates International, Abt SRBI, September 9-September 14, 2008.

14. What is Qualification Measuring? • Nothing • Unlikely answer, given stability. • Something with predictive power, even if we don’t know what it means to voters. • Qualification is simply a surrogate for partisan attitudes. • Qualification is explained (predicted) in sensible ways that may not have anything to do with elite notions of qualification.

15. Sept. 10-11, 2008

16. Chart 2. More Likely to Vote McCain by Palin Qualified by Party Affiliation Sept. 10-11, 2008

17. Sept. 10-11, 2008

18. Chart 4. Vote for Vice President by Palin Qualified by Party Affiliation Sept. 10-11, 2008

19. Sept. 10-11, 2008

20. Chart 6. Palin Favorability by Palin Qualified by Party Affiliation Sept. 10-11, 2008

21. Sept. 10-11, 2008

22. Sept. 10-11, 2008

23. Sept. 10-11, 2008

24. Sept. 10-11, 2008

25. Sept. 10-11, 2008

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27. Sept. 10-11, 2008

28. Oct. 8-9, 2008

29. Oct. 8-9, 2008

30. Oct. 8-9, 2008

31. Oct. 8-9, 2008

32. Oct. 22-23, 2008

33. Oct. 22-23, 2008

34. Oct. 22-23, 2008

35. Oct. 22-23, 2008

36. Oct. 22-23, 2008

37. Chart 23. Foreign Policy Questions from September and October NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Registered Voter Sample (N=1,157), Sept. 19-22, 2008. PSRA/Newsweek Oct. 22-23, 2008

38. Chart 24. What One Word best describes your impression of Sarah Palin? Just the one word that best describes her. Pew Survey, Sept. 9-14, 2008 Data only for registered voters who said they planned to vote for McCain & Palin (N=260 answers, more than 4 or more answers below.) Aggressive New Confident Refreshing Conservative Smart Dynamic Strong Energetic Unknown Excellent Fresh Good Great Honest Impressive Intelligent Interesting

39. Conclusions • Qualification does not seem to mean the same thing to everyone. • Difference between elite (pollster) and voter interpretations. • Given the attention paid to this term, polling organizations should have done more to understand it. • Expertise in foreign affairs not an important part of the discussion—among elite or among the public.

40. In discussing her book, conservative USAToday Columnist Michael Medved says the media and rest of the political establishment still does not understand Palin. Reviews, he said, “represent an elitist attempt to disarm a political combatant by questioning her qualification.” He accuses this elite of having a “liberal infatuation with Ivy League affiliation” and says that “A nation that proudly offers fresh starts and open doors regardless of old world titles of family connections should reject snobbery based on either academic attainment or aristocratic ancestry.”

41. ABC News Washington Post Release 7 24 09

42. ABC News Washington Post Release 7 24 09

43. ABC News Washington Post Release 7 24 09

44. Thank you for your attention! lbbecker@uga.edu