1 Adelphi Research, Berlin

1. 2 Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel 1Adelphi Research, Berlin The Impacts of Droughts on Societies: Developing an Interdisciplinary Assessment Approach by Dennis Tänzler1, Dr. Dörthe Krömker2 and Frank Eierdanz2

2. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Adelphi Research, Berlin Aim of this Paper To present an approach to improve our understanding of the vulnerability of societies to drought … …by developing and combining three concepts against the background of different disciplinary viewpoints and in cooperation with other researchers:

3. Crises event Environmental Stress High probabilityof crises Low probability of crises No crisesevent Susceptibility The Framework: Security Diagrams

4. Case Study Regions Volgograd + Saratov Russia Algarve + Alentejo Portugal Andhra Pradesh India

5. (Actual – Minimum) (Maximum – Minimum) (Actual (Actual – – Minimum) Minimum) 1 - (Maximum (Maximum – – Minimum) Minimum) (Actual – Minimum) (Maximum – Minimum) I. Water Stress: Max-Index Definition of limits Index of achievement Maximum Fresh water withdrawals 1 - Fresh water (Actual (Actual – – Minimum) Minimum) max. max. = = 100% 100% withdrawals, min. min. = = 0% 0% (Maximum (Maximum – – Minimum) Minimum) [% of water resources] [% of water resources] Deviation of water availability from long time average 3 - Deviation of water (Actual (Actual – – Minimum) Minimum) availability from long max. max. = = 0% 0% Max Max (Index (Index ) ) 1 1 - - time average, 1, 2, 3 1, 2, 3 min. min. = = 100% 100% (Maximum (Maximum – – Minimum) Minimum) [% of 1961 [% of 1961 - - 1990] 1990] 6 - Percentage of area Percentage of area under stress (Actual (Actual – – Minimum) Minimum) under stress, max. max. = = 100% 100% [% of population in area [% of area with with-drawals/avail. >= 0,4] min. min. = = 0% 0% (Maximum (Maximum – – Minimum) Minimum) where withdrawals/ availability >= 0,4]

6. PolSus EcoSus SocCuSus II. Susceptibility top-down Approach: “Functional Differentiation of Societies” applied … Environmental Stress Political Capacity & Political Willingness Wealth & Resource Sensitivity Degree of Susceptibility Social Integration

7. II. Model for the assessment of susceptibility Opport. for Particip. Degree of Corruption Tax Revenue Expendi-tures for Health Conflict Involve-ment GDP per Capita Hydro-power Prod. Employees in Agricult. Size of Agricult. Immuni-zation Relative State Willingness Lack of Wealth Relative State Capacity Lack of Social Integration Economic Sensitivity Economic Susceptibility Political Susceptibility Socio-cultural Susceptibility Susceptibility

8. II. Results for the Top-Down Approach Volgograd + Saratov, Russia 1991-1995 Algarve + Alentejo, Portugal 1991- 1995 Andhra Pradesh, India 1991-1995 Lack of Lack of Lack of State capacity State capacity State capacity 1,00 1,00 1,00 0,75 0,75 0,75 Lack of Lack of Lack of 0,50 0,50 0,50 Lack of Lack of Lack of Social Social Social Statewill 0,25 Statewill 0,25 0,25 Statewill Integration Integration Integration 0,00 0,00 0,00 Lack of Lack of Economic Economic Lack of Economic Wealth Wealth Sensitivity Sensitivity Wealth Sensitivity 0,8 high 0,4 low high 0,8

9. II. Findings from the Top-Down Approach • Russian and Indian regions have similary high levels of susceptibility • Both regions show high degrees of corruption, Russia especially a high level of conflict involvement, India a lack of wealth • Temporal trends (1980-1995) indicate decreasing susceptibility for Portugal and continued level of high susceptibility for Russia and India • Applying the model only for recent developments offers the chance to use more precise indicators for some of the dimension • The model could also be improved by introducing a systematic measurement of potentials for coping capacity.

10. III. Crisis Definition (based on the media analysis) • A serious disruption of the functioning of societies causing widespread material or human losses as well as socio-cultural impacts requiring political and social responses. • With respect to the occurrence of crisis induced by droughts this means that undesirable outcomes are brought on by environmental stress and extraordinary emergency measures to counteract are required. • Undesirable outcomes are typically related to human well-being and to agricultural or energyproduction whereas extraordinary measures comprise inter alia financial aid, political regulations or some kind of sociocultural adaptation.

11. Combination of the three dimensions: water stress, susceptibility and crisis(sel.)

12. IV. Bottom-Up Approach:„Protection-Capacity Theory“ applied… Perception based appraisal process Severity Appraisal of Threat = Exposure Probability Values Degree of Susceptibility External Stress Response Efficacy Coping Appraisal = Competence Self Efficacy Costs/Barriers

13. Results for Psychological Perspective Algarve + Alentejo, Portugal 2001 Volgograd + Saratov, Russia 2001 Andhra Pradesh, India 2001 Low capacity Low capacity Low capacity for technical for technical for technical measures measures measures 1,00 Low capacity 1,00 Dependency Low capacity Low capacity 1,00 Dependency for at place Dependency 0,75 from agriculture for at place 0,75 for at place 0,75 from agriculture measures from agriculture measures measures 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,25 0,25 0,25 Barriers to Dependency Dependency Barriers to Dependency Barriers to 0,00 0,00 implement 0,00 ratio ratio implement implement ratio measures measures measures Appraisal of Appraisal of Appraisal of Low threatened Low Low threatened resources threatened values resources resources values values Negative Negative Negative consequences consequences consequences of drought of drought of drought 0,7 0,4 0,3 high low low

14. Findings from the Bottom Up Approach • The subjective exposure to water stress and the possibilities to deal with it define the degree of susceptibility • Approach emphasizes the importance of how specific stakeholder groups perceive increased stress and interact with it • From the bottom up perspective the regions of Portugal and Russia show a similar degree of susceptibility. • Difference to the top-down results: people in the Russian region perceive a low degree of susceptibility (low exposure & sufficient coping capacities) • But: No time series data available, preliminary and non-representative data for regions, validation still to be done

15. Conclusions • Refinement of the concepts of susceptibility, environmental stress, crisis • First steps towards an Integrated Assessment – Coupling between approaches from the social & natural sciences • Development of methodology to assess susceptibility from different disciplinary viewpoints resulting in a comprehensive and comparative analytical approach • Quantification of susceptibility and Consideration of qualitative information • Compilation of crisis data via media analysis: testing of the vulnerability estimates • More efforts are needed to validate method and findings, especially we need to increase the number of case studies

16. Acknowledgements: funded by the German Climate Research Programme (Deklim) of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) Thanks go also to: Prof. Joseph Alcamo (CERS Kassel); Dr. Richard JT Klein (PIK); Dr.Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik (PIK) and Alexander Carius (Adelphi) as well as to: The Madras School of Economics (Chennai; India) Euronatura (Lisboa, Portugal) and Moscow State University (Russia)

17. Thank you! Contact: taenzler@adelphi-research.de Project Website: www.usf.uni-kassel.de/secdiag