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Dr. Norbert Doerry Technical Director, SEA 05 Technology Group SEA05TD Norbert.doerry@navy.mil

Setting the stage for real options theory in ship design and naval force structure planning ASNE – SNAME Joint Panel SD-8 (Naval ship design) Meeting October 14, 2011. Dr. Norbert Doerry Technical Director, SEA 05 Technology Group SEA05TD Norbert.doerry@navy.mil 202-781-2520.

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Dr. Norbert Doerry Technical Director, SEA 05 Technology Group SEA05TD Norbert.doerry@navy.mil

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  1. Setting the stage for real options theory in ship design and naval force structure planningASNE – SNAME Joint Panel SD-8 (Naval ship design) MeetingOctober 14, 2011 Dr. Norbert Doerry Technical Director, SEA 05 Technology Group SEA05TD Norbert.doerry@navy.mil 202-781-2520 Approved for Public Release Doerry

  2. It’s hard to predict the future! It’s hard to make good design decisions today for an uncertain future How should one value the ability to defer a decision to when the “future is better known?” How much of what type of modularity / flexibility should a ship design provide? Approved for Public Release Doerry

  3. This is an important issue Actual Service Life Cruisers: 26.3 years Destroyers: 25.4 years Frigates: 19.8 years Philip Koenig, Don Nalchajian, and John Hootman, “Ship Service Life and Naval Force Structure,” ETS 2008. Since World War II, the Navy has not been successful in keeping surface combatants operationally relevant for their design service life. Modularity and Flexibility technologies that can help keep ships operationally relevant have been well known since mid 70’s, but have not been systematically adopted Current requirements and decision processes do not inherently consider the value of modularity and flexibility in keeping ships operationally relevant Can REAL OPTIONS THEORY help? Approved for Public Release Doerry

  4. Workshop Objectives • Identify the opportunities for Real Option Theory in force structure planning and ship design. • Identify the barriers in using Real Option Theory in force structure planning and ship design. Agenda 0830 – Refreshments 0900 - Introduction to SD-8 panel by Fidel Sanchez 0910 - Setting the stage for real options theory in ship design and naval force structure planning by Dr. Norbert Doerry 0920 - Introduction to Real Options Theory by LT Jon Page 0945 - Introduction to the DSTO and Operations research/Navy Force Structure efforts by Dr. Kurt Brinschwitz 1010 - SERC efforts in Real Options Theory by Dr. Kevin Sullivan, University of Virginia and SERC 1035 - Open Discussion 1130 - Recap on findings by Dr. Norbert Doerry 1145 - Adjourn Approved for Public Release Doerry

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