Dr Richenda Connell Technical Director UK Climate Impacts Programme

1. Climate change An overview of the risks and available climate change information 10 February 2005, RIBA London Dr Richenda Connell Technical Director UK Climate Impacts Programme

2. UKCIP • the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) helps organisations to assess how they might be affected by climate change, so that they can prepare for its impacts • set up by UK Government in 1997, funded by Defra based at Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford • stakeholder-led research, partnerships, programmes and capacity building, using common tools and datasets. All free! website: www.ukcip.org.uk

3. introduction • climate is changing • twin approach needed: adaptation and mitigation • rich climate scenarios data are available • climate impacts can affect many aspects of an organisation • UKCIP has tools, resources and support to help your organisation

4. Climate change and man’s influence

5. (4) Most escapes to outer space and cools the earth... the greenhouse effect - good SUN (1) Sunlight passes through the atmosphere.. (5) but some is trapped by greenhouse gases, and keeps the earth warm enough for us (3) infra-red “heat” radiation is given off by the earth (2) and warms the earth

6. (4) Some escapes to outer space and cools the earth... the greenhouse effect - bad (7) until a new balance is achieved at a higher temperature. SUN (1) Sunlight passes through the atmosphere.. (5) but some is trapped by greenhouse gases, and keeps the earth warm enough for us (6) and more is trapped by man-made greenhouse gases, and heats the earth further (3) infra-red “heat” radiation is given off by the earth (2) and warms the earth

7. rising carbon dioxide (900 - 2002) [Source: IPCC]

8. global mean surface temperatures have increased

9. most of the observed global warming in the past 50 years is attributable to human activities source IPCC

10. future greenhouse gas emission scenarios source IPCC The four GHG emissions scenarios used in developing the UKCIP02 climate scenarios

11. we are already committed to changes up to 2040, but still have some choice thereafter

12. global mean temperatures will increase much further by 2100 source IPCC

13. 2. twin responses to climate change:adaptation and mitigation adaptation directly benefits your own organisation

14. mitigation and adaptation • mitigation of climate change to slow down global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions • adaptation to climate change to respond to the impacts of climate change

15. some simple adaptation messages • some climate change is inevitable, so some adaptation is too • effective adaptation responses can create more time for mitigation actions to slow down climate change • adaptation is not just an ‘environmental’ issue: climate change can effect many aspects of business • adaptation directly benefits your own organisation • adaptation has not yet found a ‘home’ in many organisations, and no-one is tasked with this area of responsibility

16. 3. climate change scenarios for UK over the 21st Century

17. UKCIP02 climate change scenarios The main parameters used in reporting the data: • all referred to baseline data for 1961-1990 • regional variation: 50 km square grid over UK • three time periods: 2020s, 2050s, 2080s • four emissions scenarios: L, ML, MH, H • climate variables (see next slide) + sea level • means, maxima, minima • 4 seasons + annual • probability curves for some variables • expert judgements of levels of confidence Note UKCIP 07 is on the way!

18. Changes in average temperature Low emissions High emissions

19. Daily maximum temperature: probability of exceedance Central England summer temperature Baseline (1961-90) 31oC has 1% chance [I day per summer] 2080s, medium-high emissions 31oC has 11% chance [11 days per summer] 39oC has 1% chance

20. Changes in average precipitation Winter Summer

21. Daily precipitation: probability of exceedance “Pembrokeshire” rainfall Winter - solid Baseline (1961-90) 32mm/day has 1% chance [I day per summer] 2080s, medium-high emissions 32mm/day has 2% chance [2 days per summer] 38mm has 1% chance

22. High water level return period: Immingham, Lincs Baseline (1961-90)1.5m ca. 1 in 120 year eventMedium-high Emissions, 2080s1.5m is ca. 1 in 7 year event

23. Frequency of UK depressions Baseline (1961-90) - blueMedium-High Emissions, 2080s - red

24. How often will extremes occur? Medium high emissions scenario: percentage of years with…..

25. Summary of expected climate changes Long-term / seasonal averages • Warmer, drier summers (spring, autumn too) • Milder, wetter winters • Rising sea levels Extremes • More very hot days • More intense downpours of rain • Shorter return periods for high water levels at coast • Uncertain changes in storms – possible increase in winter

26. Circulation strength (Sverdrups) No change in emissions High emissions Medium-High Medium-Low Low emissions issues of debate: Gulf Stream collapse? Climate models show a 20% reduction, but not a switch-off

27. 4. impacts on business areas • market/need/demand • logistics/utilities • process • investment/insurance • people • premises Management responses

28. changing marketswhich will influence client decisions • tourism: UK and abroad Scotland becomes more attractive than Mediterranean? • commercial and residential development New locations become attractive Vulnerable locations become less attractive • building design and technology Increased demand for buildings able to cope with new climate conditions Lifestyle changes are least predictable but could be significant

29. evidence of ‘future proofing’ for insurers, etc • Association of British Insurers likely to introduce differentiated premiums according to degree of future proofing (especially flooding risk) • Council of Mortgage Lenders looking at future proofing to be included in new ‘sellers pack’ • Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change looking at ways of assessing climate risks before committing to investment in development

30. 5. UKCIP resources and support all UKCIP resources are free

31. UKCIP tools • climate change scenarios • socio-economic scenarios • risk management framework • costing method • adaptation wizard • adaptation case study database

32. A framework to support good decision-making in the face of climate risk Criteria for Stage 5 – legislation, risk attitude Main drivers behind decision How can we manage risks of overheating in building design? Tiered risk assessment – climate and non-climate factors Bring info together Final checks No-regret options Flexible options Delay/Do nothing? Evaluate against Stage 2 criteria

33. UKCIP studies & partnerships Sectoral: Regional: Nine English Regions Three Devolved Administrations: Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland Regional studies provide a good overview of whole range of climate risks

34. Research projects on: • Urban drainage • Urban planning • Energy supply • Heritage buildings • Slope stability • Air transport • High-resolution climate scenarios • Socio-economics & adaptive capacity • Risk management • DTI-funded Arup study: CIBSE TM36 sectoral studies and partnerships: ‘Building Knowledge for a Changing Climate’ considerable stakeholder input into research agendas, methodology and outputs (both style and content)

35. capacity building in business Pilot project with 8 Trade Associations and Professional Institutes In four clusters • building design and construction • financial services (insurance and mortgage lenders) • rural land-use and economy (agriculture) • manufacturing (including motor vehicle manufacture) RIBA, CIBSE, RICS (in discussion), Concrete Centre, ABI, CML are partners in this programme and key players in building design and construction contact gerry.metcalf@ukcip.org.uk

36. key messages • climate is changing more quickly than in recent geological time • climate scenarios are now robust and data rich • climate risks can affect many aspects of business • UKCIP has tools, research and expertise to help you prepare visit the UKCIP website at ukcip.org.uk