Understanding Your Market: Leveraging Trends and Research to Enhance Admissions and Communications

1. Understanding Your Market:Leveraging Trends and Research to Enhance Admissions and Communications Myra McGovern, Director of Public Information, NAIS, mcgovern@nais.org Amada Torres, Director of Academic Research, NAIS, torres@nais.org

2. Overview • Demographic Trends • Demographic Research Tools • Perceptions of Independent Schools • Messages that Resonate • How to Counter Stereotypes and Capitalize on Strengths

3. Demographic Trends

4. Changing School-age Population • After a 20 percent increase between 1990 and 2003, enrollments in both public and private schools are expected to increase at lower rates between 2003 and 2015. • Enrollment in private elementary and secondary schools is projected to increase 7% between 2003 and 2015 (as opposed to a projected 6% increase for public schools). Source: Projections of Education Statistics to 2015, U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, September 2006.

5. Changing School-age Population Source: Projections of Education Statistics to 2015, U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, September 2006.

6. Aging of America • Today, 12 percent of the total population in the United States is over 65 years of age. By 2050, it is projected that 21 percent of the total population will be over 65 years of age. (U.S. Census Bureau, “Facts for Features: Older American Month Celebrated in May”). • As the baby boomer generation ages, health care and pension costs will greatly increase and cause social and financial institutions to become strained. These strains could lead to a decrease in political and financial support for K-12 education.

7. Aging of America

8. Family Structure • In 2003: • 68 percent of children under the age of 18 lived with two married parents (compared to 77 percent in 1980) • 23 percent lived only with a mother • 5 percent lived only with a father • 4 percent lived with neither parent. (U.S. Census Bureau, “America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2003”) • The number of two-parent families is projected to slowly decrease to 23.1 million by 2010. (U.S. Department of Commerce, “Projections of the Number of Households and Families in the United States: 1995 to 2010”)

9. Family Structure

10. Race and Ethnicity • Whites will make up only 58% of those in the 0-24 age range by 2015 (compared with 70% in 1990). (Vernes and Krop, “Projected Social Context for Education of Children: 1990-2015”) • Hispanics are expected to nearly double from 12 % in 1990 to 21% in 2015. (Vernes and Krop, “Projected Social Context for Education of Children: 1990-2015”) • Half of all school children will be non-Anglo American by 2025, and half of all Americans will be non-Anglo American by 2050. (Hodgkinson, “Secondary Schools in a New Millennium: Demographic Certainties, Social Realities”)

11. Race and Ethnicity

12. Race and Ethnicity • The 65% increase in diverse populations will be absorbed by only 230 counties, with California, Texas, and Florida getting about three-fifths. (Hodgkinson, “Educational Demographics: What Teachers Should Know”) • 82% of US population growth since 2000 has been from non-whites (Johnson, “People on the Move: Implications for U.S. Higher Education.” College Board Review, Fall, 2006, pp. 4-9.) • At least 40% of all Americans have had some racial mixing in the last three generations. (Hodgkinson, “Secondary Schools in a New Millennium: Demographic Certainties, Social Realities”)

13. Race and Ethnicity

14. Educational Attainment • The share of children to be raised in families with college-educated parents is projected to increase from 27% in 1990 to 30% in 2015. • More than half (51%) of Asian children are projected to be raised by college-educated parents in 2015, compared to 45% in 1990. Source: Georges Vernes and Richard Krop, “Projected Social Context for Education of Children: 1990-2015”.

15. Educational Attainment

16. Income Level in Columbus, OH

17. The Barbell Effect • The numbers of very wealthy and very poor are growing, while the number of people in the middle is shrinking • The gap between rich and poor is growing.

18. Disposable Income The Middle Class: Dual Income Family $75,000 ~ “The Middle Class on the Precipice,” Harvard Magazine, February, 2006

19. Costs/ Demand Conundrum • Wages have stagnated and costs are up. • Tuition has grown substantially. • Could drive down demand.

20. Cost vs. Affordability • Balancing operating expenses with affordable tuitions has been made even more difficult by expansion of staff, skyrocketing health insurance costs, offering competitive salaries/benefits, escalating technology expenses, and facilities maintenance and renovation costs. • The demand for individualized services has driven up tuitions. For example, NAIS schools have seen an increase in instructional support salaries from 2.8% or $500 per student in 1996 to 4.4% or $896 per student in 2006. (NAIS, “ Financial Operations Core Sample Stats-Online Participating Schools,” June 2007)

21. Gen Xers Parents • Some characteristics of Gen Xers: • Are children of divorce. 40% have grown up in single parent families. As a result, they want a rich family life. While financial success is important, personal lives take precedence. • Have spent more time watching television than going to school. • Have an unrelenting desire to use and learn more about leading edge technology. • Are procrastinators, postponing commitments in order to continue to evaluate options. • Are a racially diverse group. • Will pick up and leave a job that does not satisfy them.

22. Data-driven Decision Makers • In NAIS’s 2004 Hot Issues Survey, school leaders cited a growing consumer attitude that is harder to manage (demands for specialized and individualized services, rising demand for information about the value-added of an independent education). • As tuitions rise, parental expectations for measurable outcomes also grow. They want hard data about outcomes—college graduation rates, job satisfaction levels, etc. • Forecasters predict that Generation X, who grew up on the Internet, will demand even more hard data.

23. Women as Buyers According to market guru Tom Peters: “Start with women. They buy everything. Consider these stats from the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Women’s share of purchases: • Home furnishings ...94% • Vacations ... 92% • Houses ... 91% • D.I.Y. (major “home projects”) ...80% • Consumer electronics ...51% (66% home computers) • Cars ... 68% • All consumer purchases ...83% • Bank account ... 89% • Household investment decisions ...67% • Small business loans/biz starts ... 70% • Health care ...80%” Source: Peters, “Everything You Need to Know About Strategy: A Baker’s Dozen Eternal Verities”

24. Women as Buyers (Cont’d) • Trend spotting guru Faith Popcorn summarizes: “Men and women don’t think the same way, don’t communicate the same way, don’t buy for the same reasons. He simply wants the transaction to take place. She’s interested in creating a relationship.”

25. Educational Consumerism • Trend forecasters see “Ethical Consumerism” as a growing movement making its way to education in the years ahead. Ethical consumers base their purchasing decisions on ethical criteria such as environmentalism and social responsibility. • In the coming years, parents and students may evaluate schools on more than educational criteria.

26. What are the Challenges with These Parents? • Parents who are consumers are less loyal than they were a generation ago. No longer good enough to say “just trust us.” • Some want their child and the school to be a “winner” whether it is National Merit test or soccer. • Some parents are accustomed to go to the top when they want something done. • Some demand grades be changed, their child not be cut from a team, or the school settle typical teenage social issues.

27. The “Millennials” – “Baby on Board” • Born between 1980-1999 when the “thirty-something” baby boomers decided they wanted to have children. • Era of the “wanted child” • Era of the “protected child” • Many adults changed their behavior towards children: children as “prized possessions”-more protective of and fearful about; more “precious”; what colleges are calling “teacup freshmen”—i.e.. fragile. “I’m special, so special…I need your attention.” • The Millennials distinguishing traits (Howe and Strauss, “Millennials Rising: The Next Great Generation”): • Special • Sheltered • Confident • Team-oriented • Achieving • Pressured • Conventional

28. The “Millennials” as Students • Gravitate toward group activity • Believe it’s cool to be smart • Are fascinated by the new technologies • Identify with their parents’ values and feel close to their parents. • Most racially & ethnically diverse • Least Caucasian generation • 20% of under 18 population is Latino (NAIS Demographic Center) • 1 in every 5 has an immigrant parent Source: Oblinger, “Boomers, Gen-Xers, and Millennials: Understanding the New Students”

29. Demographic Research Tool

30. How to find out about your community using the NAIS Demographic Center? • Basic Reports for Independent Schools: They include variables especially selected for their relevance in the decision-making process for independent school administrators (school population, households, income, race/ethnicity, and educational attainment). • Summary Reports • Detailed Reports

31. How to find out about your community using the NAIS Demographic Center? • Additional Reports for Advanced Use: They contain more general variables that provide a more sophisticated analysis of the demographic changes in the American landscape. • Quick Reports • Ring Studies • Quick Maps • Rank Analysis • Profile Analysis

32. Case Study I: Changing Gender Trends

33. Case Study I: Changing Gender Trends • An elementary girls’ school in Philadelphia, PA finds that the population of school-aged girls is decreasing. What strategic questions should it ask? • What percentage of all girls would we need to attract to survive? Is that doable? • Do we consider going coed? Or merging with another girls’ school? • If not, what financial planning do we need to do to help us weather the downturn? • Can we work with the local businesses and the chamber of commerce to attract new families to the area?

34. Case Study II: Changing Ethnicity Trends

35. Case Study II: Changing Ethnicity Trends • A school in San Antonio, Texas, finds that the population of people of color in its area is growing rapidly. The school currently has 10% students of color. What strategic questions should it ask? • Given the demographic changes, what percentage of students of color should the school aim for? • What are the key characteristics that parents of color are looking for in a school? Does the school highlight these characteristics in its messages? • What communication channels should the school use to reach out to the people of color in its community? Should the school include other languages in its communications with parents?

36. Case Study III: Changing Income Trends Location: Boulder, CO Cities Plotted:6 Cities Score Variable: Households with Income $35,000 to $49,999  Cities Score Colors: ABCDEA - E Scores represent Quintiles of Concentration An area with A has a top 20% concentration of the Score Variable based on the Based ranking

37. Case Study III: Changing Income Trends • A school in Boulder, Colorado, finds that there are fewer middle-class families in its town and the school is increasingly attracting students from the upper-most and lowest socio-economic brackets. What strategic questions should it ask? • Can we adjust pricing to attract more middle-class families? Can we increase financial aid? • Are middle-class families aware of all the options offered to pursue an education in our school (need-based financial aid, merit awards, tuition payment plans, and, tuition loan programs)?

38. Perceptions of Independent Schools

39. Individualized Attention Involved Parents Strong Academic Programs Homogenous Student Body Independent Schools Small Classes Elitist High Tuitions Isolated from the Rest of the Community High Quality Teachers Safe Environment

40. What are the elements of a quality school? • Providing a safe environment • Employing high quality teachers • Maintaining discipline • Keeping students motivated/enthusiastic about learning • Climate that says it’s okay to study and excel • Preparing students academically for college • Encouraging parents’ participation Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006

41. What Attracts Parents to Independent Schools? • In a 2003 NAIS survey, current independent school parents highlighted the following factors as influential in choosing an independent education: • Academic quality • Small class sizes • More challenging than public school options • Reputation for college admissions. • One of the top reasons for sending children to independent schools is dissatisfaction with public system.

42. Top Ten Characteristics That Affect School Quality - General Public Opinion Providing a safe environment Employing high-quality teachers Maintaining discipline Keeping students motivated and enthusiastic about learning Supporting a climate that says it’s okay to study and excel Preparing students academically for college Encouraging parents to participate in their child's education Preventing drug and alcohol use Preparing students for life and career in a global economy Attending to the needs of students with learning disabilities Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006

43. Top Ten Characteristics That Affect School Quality - High Income Families Opinions Providing a safe environment Employing high-quality teachers Supporting a climate that says it’s okay to study and excel Preparing students academically for college Keeping students motivated and enthusiastic about learning Maintaining discipline Encouraging parents to participate in their child's education Using computers and other technology to enhance learning Preventing drug and alcohol use Preparing students for life and career in a global economy Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006

44. In what areas does the public think that independent schools excel? • Safe environment • Preparing students for college • Climate that says it’s okay to study and excel • Maintaining discipline • Encouraging parents’ participation • Small class sizes • Using computers/tech to enhance learning • High-quality teachers • Individualized attention • Offering opportunities to be leaders • Keeping students motivated about learning Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006

45. In what areas does the public think that independent schools don’t meet expectations? • Preventing drug and alcohol use • Music and arts programs/curriculum • Having students involved in community service • Involving students in athletics and sports • Attending to the needs of students with learning disabilities • Having students drawn from a range of cultures/ races and income groups. Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006

46. Gap Analysis Among Targeted Sample Note: “Extremely Important” represents those respondents answering an 8, 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale where 1 is Not At All Important and 10 is Extremely Important. Note: “Excellent” represents those respondents answering an 8, 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale where 1 is Very Poor and 10 is Excellent. *Indicates a significant difference from the characteristic ranked as important at the 95% confidence level Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006

47. Messages that Resonate

48. What are all parents looking for in schools? There are two principles that parents in our research indicate they most want to find in schools for their children: • Educating the whole child: nurturing critical thinking, intellectual and personal growth. • Attending to the child’s own particular needs. Source: Marketing Independent Schools to Generation X and Minority Parents, NAIS, 2005

49. Gen X parents with young children are most concerned about… • Development and opportunity: Emphasis on finding a school that offers a variety of activities and classes. They want school to engage their children and expose them to many things. • Safety concerns: need to see that schools will keep their children safe from accidents, bullies, or other dangers. • Too much selectivity and standardized testing: concerned that putting too much pressure on their children will teach them to dislike school. Source: Marketing Independent Schools to Generation X and Minority Parents, NAIS, 2005

50. Parents of older children are most concerned about… • Rigorous academics: look for schools that provide the necessary skills to prepare their children for college and career. • Safety concerns: concerned about safety, specifically social dangers such as drugs, gangs, and sex. Source: Marketing Independent Schools to Generation X and Minority Parents, NAIS, 2005