Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia Sharad Joshi Monterey Institute of International Studies November 13, 2009

1. Regional Nuclear Challenges: South AsiaSharad JoshiMonterey Institute of International StudiesNovember 13, 2009

3. Stability/Instability Paradox Strategic stability Increased violence at sub-strategic level Strategic instability Increased violence at sub-strategic level Helps link non-state violence and nuclear postures in South Asia

4. Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia Currently Nuclear weapons deployed by both Deterrence posture (stable/unstable?) Periodic crises situations (e.g. 2001/02) involved nuclear threats Nonproliferation regime positions Both India and Pakistan outside Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) Debate in India over CTBT Varied positions on Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) Pakistan�s problems with FMCT

5. Expansion of specific capabilities Continued production of fissile material Continued development of more lethal delivery systems Introduction of cruise missiles, longer-range ballistic missiles, submarine launched ballistic missiles Consideration of missile defense systems

6. Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia Capabilities and Strategies India Tests in 1974, 1998 Estimated 40-50 nuclear devices Ballistic missile capability � Prithvi, Agni I&II Acquisition of cruise missiles (BrahMos) Deterrence strategy No first use doctrine

7. Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia Capabilities and Strategies India Quest for �credible minimum deterrent� Agni III long range ballistic missile Submarine launch capability sought Nuclear submarine (INS Arihant) launched in July 2009 Approval for Agni-V Restricted increase in range-5,000 km Testing of missile defense systems

8. Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia Capabilities Pakistan Tests in 1998 Refusal to adopt a no-first use policy Put forward a �No War pact� Credible minimum doctrine Estimated material for 50-110nuclear devices. Missile capability covers most of India � Ghauri, Shaheen Development of cruise missiles � Babur ? nuclear delivery role F-16 deal with U.S.

9. Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia

10. Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia Capabilities and Strategies Pakistan Concern over security of nuclear weapons Both countries: Development of cruise missiles Pakistan � Babur, Ra�ad (nuclear capable) India � BrahMos, Nirbhay Implications for military strategy How do cruise missiles fit into broader thinkingon security and deterrence issues in South Asia?

11. Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia Capabilities and Strategies Missile defense Two tests by India in 2006/2007 Quest for cruise missile defense Nuclear Confidence Building Measures Missile test notification no cruise missiles Agreement for reducing risk of nuclear accidents Exchange of nuclear facilities lists

12. Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia U.S.-India Nuclear Agreement Current situation IAEA safeguards agreement approved in August 2008; signed in March 2009 NSG approval in September 2008 Nuclear Deal with France � Sept. 30, 2008 U.S. Congressional approval for bilateral pact in October 2008 Benefits for India Nuclear technology, materials from external suppliers Domestic sources of uranium can be diverted to military Enhanced energy supply De facto approval of nuclear status

13. Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia U.S.-India Nuclear Agreement U.S. goals Strategic partnership with India Some regulation of India�s nuclear facilities Business incentives for U.S. nuclear industry Will lessen India�s dependence on fossil fuels Unstated objective: Building India as a regional counterweight to China

14. Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia U.S.-India Nuclear Agreement Negative Consequences Breaks the nonproliferation regime Bad precedent More difficult to stop DPRK and Iran Pakistan�s quest for similar agreement China�s proposed nuclear assistance to Pakistan Allows India to produce more fissile material Could actually stabilize India�s nuclear capabilities? Indian argument India needs to be part of nuclear energy trade Regime ineffective anyway

15. Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia Proliferation From South Asia A.Q. Khan network Evolution from an import role to an export role also

16. Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia

17. Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia Security of Pakistan�s Nuclear weapons Growing Pakistani nuclear arsenal + expansion of delivery systems Political instability and violence Implications for security of nuclear weapons and materials. E.g., meetings in 2001 between Pakistani scientists and Al Qaeda leadership Technological hurdle towards a workable nuclear device, i.e., intent does not necessarily equal capability But, dirty bomb possible Psychological effect of nuclear materials use

18. Security of Pakistan�s Nuclear Weapons Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia

19. Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia Conclusions Expansion of nuclear capabilities and changes in Indian position in nonproliferation system South Asian proliferation also has to be seen in context of Asia-Pacific power dynamics, especially the rivalry between China and the U.S. India-Pakistan nuclear stalemate leading to changes in conventional strategies? � e.g., BrahMos Importance of Confidence Building Measures in other areas of contention, e.g., Siachen glacier. Can facilitate Nuclear CBMs. Security of nuclear materials and facilities from terrorist and proliferation networks remains a key problem.