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State of the Cities

State of the Cities. Denver Business Journal – Mayors’ Economic Forecast. Professor Martin Shields CSU Regional Economics Institute. THE LABOR MARKET. US Employment Below 2007 Peak. 1974-76. 1981-83. 1990-93. 2001-05. 1980. 1997-present. m onths to recovery.

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State of the Cities

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  1. State of the Cities Denver Business Journal – Mayors’ Economic Forecast Professor Martin Shields CSU Regional Economics Institute

  2. THE LABOR MARKET

  3. US Employment Below 2007 Peak 1974-76 1981-83 1990-93 2001-05 1980 1997-present months to recovery Source: Current Employment Survey

  4. Denver Employment 96 Percent of Pre-Recessionary Levels Great Recession Source: Current Employment Survey

  5. Unemployment is Too Damn High Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  6. The Jobs Gap 1% growth since last year

  7. Looking Forward

  8. GDP Growth Tepid, but Sustained 12 Month Change Source: US Department of Commerce

  9. Mid-size Companies = Job Engines Size of firm (by employees) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  10. Core Inflation Rate Back to 15-Year Average % Change in Price Level from 12 months earlier Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  11. Local Industry Watch Poised to grow • Energy • Health care • Professional & business services • Wholesale trade Continued struggles • Government • Financial activities • Information

  12. What about Construction? • ‘Construction of buildings’ has stopped shedding jobs • Specialty trade contractors employment up 300 over past year • Architecture and engineering adding jobs, too • Related financial activities still struggling Privately owned single unit housing starts

  13. The Important Economic Issues • Recovery Continues: Though at lackluster pace. National and international performance remain a major factor. • Unemployment: Will remain relatively high but below national average. • Falling Household Income: Has had large negative effects on the region.

  14. 2012 Outlook I don’t always make economic forecasts, But when I do, I am invariably wrong.

  15. 2012 Outlook • New Jobs: The region could add between 12,000 and 16,000 jobs in 2012 (1.0% - 1.3%) • Unemployment: Might drop to 7.1% (from 7.9 percent in November) • Wage Growth: Will keep pace with inflation, but household incomes will remain stagnant

  16. It’s Too Early to Declare Victory Policy makers must remain committed to job creation both locally and nationally!

  17. Thank You Dr. Martin Shields Director, Regional Economics Institute Colorado State University 970.491.2922 martin.shields@colostate.edu outreach.colostate.edu/rei

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