Nthatisi Leseba University of Kwa-Zulu Natal 16 June 2016

1. Factors Associated with incidences of Childbearing among Female Youth in South Africa: Is School Trajectory a Contributing Factor? Nthatisi Leseba University of Kwa-Zulu Natal 16 June 2016 ResearchProposal Presented to the 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians13-17 June 2016

2. Presentation Outline • Introduction • Justification of the study • Research Questions • Proposed Theoretical Framework • Proposed Methodology • Limitation 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

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4. Introduction (1) • International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), 1994 Cairo • The guarantee of education to all : with an emphasis on young girls and women. • The resolution was later emphasised in the MDG’s (Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)). (2000-2015) • Recently, the Sustainable Development Goals are still emphasising the resolutions. • The interventions were also indirectly aimed to reduce adolescent fertility and multiple factors underlying it. 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

5. Introduction (2) Several years after a number of interventions youth childbearing is still a problem. • Africa • Youth childbearing is still relatively high in Africa with Adolescent Childbearing Rate of 104 births per 1000 female youth in 2013 • With Niger having 54% of women having given birth before the age of 18 • Western Africa – 124 births per 1000 female youth • Middle Africa – 144 births per 1000 female youth • South Africa • Youth Childbearing has been declining since 1994 but not for everyone • Incidences of childbearing among schoolgirls has been increasing: • 68 000 – 2009; 89 000-2011; 99 000-2013 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

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7. Justification of the study (1) • Education is a critical factor underlying adolescent childbearing and human sustainable development. • Schools act as a protective environment for young girls. • However, the South African Educational System is characterised by : • Slow Progress • High repetition rates from one grade to the other • High drop out rates • Re-entry in the educational system • Late entry 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

8. Justification of The study (2) • It is of importance to determine if school trajectories are contributing factor of increasing incidences of youth childbearing, especially now when South Africa is faced with a number of recommendations in improving the effectiveness of education and trying to move towards sustainable human development and National developmental Plans. • Improving the quality of education and skill development innovations 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

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10. Research Questions • What percentage of females 15 – 20 years had repeated a grade? • What are incidences of youth childbearing among females aged 15-20 years who gave birth in 2011 -2012?  • Is there an association between incidences of youth childbearing and school trajectory? • If so, does the association between incidence of childbearing and school trajectory remain significant while controlling for other demographic and socio economic factors? 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

11. Theoretical Framework • The main objective of the framework was to identify social and economic factors associated with teenage pregnancy in Africa. • Female literacy as a central factor 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

12. Proposed Methodology • Data • Analysis a longitudinal survey - National Income Dynamic Study (NIDS) Wave 2 (2012). • The study is national representative • Where 32 633 individuals were selected from a sum of 8040 households. • The sample of interest resulted into 2050 female aged 15-20 in the 2012 data set with 1319 of those female youth had given birth. 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

13. Variable Definitions • Dependent Variable • Females aged 15-20 who gave birth in 2011 and 2012 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

14. Variable Definition • Independent variables • Ever repeated a grade • Other Demographic and Socio-economic factors such as : • Population group • Religion • Location of residence (urban / rural) • Household configuration (living with both parents, living with only one parent, living with another relative) • Mother’s education • Household socioeconomic status • Ethnicity 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

15. Data analysis • The study will use a logistic regression model where the dependent variable will be coded as; • 1“1. Having given birth in 2011-2012”and 0“0. For those that have not given birth at all” • The following multivariate logistic regression will be adopted in the study. • Where =1, 2, 3 ………… 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

16. Limitations • The data does not report the year in which one repeated a grade, it may be before or after child birth. • There is not data on sexual and reproductive health to strengthen the socio-demographic factors as per the theoretical framework • The data will only determine the association than causation because it is a cross-sectional study. 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

17. Thank you for your time, it is a thoughtful gift of all... 5th ISIbalo Conference of African Young Statisticians * 13-17 JUne 2016 * Pretoria, South Africa

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