Presentation Transcript

1. Please Stand ByJohn Thomas for Macro MillionaireWednesday, March 2, 2010 The Webinar will Start at 12:00 EST
2. Macro MillionaireJohn ThomasThe Mad Hedge Fund Trader Position UpdateFlight of the Black Swans-Special Armageddon Issue
3. Macro Millionaire Global Strategy LuncheonsBuy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.com March 31, 2011 New York City, 12:00 noonApril 28, 2011 Phoenix, Arizona
4. Macro Millionaire Global Strategy LuncheonsBuy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.com April 4, 2011 London, England 12:00 noonApril 8, 2011 Paris, France 12:00 noon
5. Performance February -3.97% (final) March first day +2.18%First 12 weeks of Trading+ 18.81% Versus 11.1% for the S&P500
6. Decent OutperformanceS&P 500 +11.1%
7. Portfolio ReviewMaintainingModest shorts For details please log into the “Macro Millionaire” website members page
8. Here Come the Black Swans *The crash risk is rising*Prepare now for the coming flood*Learn the hedge fund techniques for protecting your assets
9. The Coming Real Estate Disaster *A further 30% fall in home prices is in the cards*All stimulus has failedhuge state and federal tax subsidies ($18,000 in CA) 30 year mortgage rates at 50 year lows (4.4%)*A ten year supply overhangs the market 5 years in existing and shadow inventory 5 years of pressure from retiring baby boomers*Banks will only lend to borrowers who don’t need the money*Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are about to disappear- no help from congressadd 200 bp for a privatized market*What happens when interest rates rise?
10. A Secondary Banking Crisis *Banks still carrying huge unrealized loan losses on the books-the Fed knows this, I know this, and now you know it.*Counting on economic growth to bail them out over the long term-not going to get it-downshifting from a 3.9% to 2% world*Falling home prices will magnify these losses before the old losses are recapitalized*No more TARP’s-last bail out was hugely unpopular, current balance in Washington won’t permit it.*Bottom line-we lose a few more big banks
11. Beware the “New Normal” *Lower long term economic growth rates can’t support higher PE multiplesdownshifting from a 3.9% to 2% world Check out he PIMCO website-Bill Gross & Mohamed El Erian*30 year multiple range of 10-22*New Multiple range of 10-16* Stocks are no bargain here at a 15 multiple*This is what lost decades are made of
12. Coming Collapse of the Dollar *The trade deficit overwhelms our services surplus*A weak dollar assures imported inflation*A falling dollar forces rising interest rates*Oil is throwing the fat on the fireArabs are recycling their reserves among a broader range of currencies*Not a new trend
13. The Continuing Collapse of the Treasury Market *The fat lady has already sung*The government’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) says the national debt will rise from $14 trillion to $20 trillion by 2020*By 2020, debt service rises from 4% of the budget to 20%*The high interest rates this demands will send the US economy into a death spiral*The US will never recover from the 2000-2010 debt binge*Permanently higher unemployment andlower American standards of living arethe out come*Where did the consumer go?*Consumer spending still70% of the economy
14. Treasury Bond PricesTen year yields from 2.3% to 4.7% in six months
15. The Printing Press Will Only Bring Tears *The Fed is committed to buying $600 billion worth of Treasury bonds in six months.*It has already bought $1 trillion*This new cash is stoking runaway commodity price inflation*CPI showing 2.5% inflation is bogus, conceals true picture*Cotton-highest prices since the Civil War – up 215% from 2010 lows*Oil – up 54%*Corn + 84%*Copper +71%*Silver +134%*A gridlocked Washington is more interested in scoring debating points than finding a viable solution
16. According to the Fed, This is not inflation+215%
17. Nor is This+134%
18. The Powder Keg in the Middle East *Risks to our energy supply are vastly understated in the market*Of 20 million barrels/day of US consumption, 10 million comes from abroad*2 million barrels/day comes from the middle East*US forces now primarily protecting China’s oil supply *Saudi Arabia produces 12 million barrels/day*Libya produces 1.5 million barrels/day*Since oil is a globally traded commodity,takes out one source of supply and we all pay*Bring back the 1970’s gas lines
19. Protect Your Wealth *“Buy and Hold” is dead*Trade or perish*Think like a hedge fund manager*Learn the hedging techniques of the big hedge funds*Only enter limited risk high return positions*Learn the instruments to execute these strategies*Adopt a global “macro” long/short view*Identify the moving sectors buy the winners and short the losers*Rent, don’t buy
20. The Worst Case Scenario All of the above happens at the same time!2011?2012?2013?Whenever it comes, you must prepare now
21. Trade Sheet *Stocks-The correction has started, sell rallies short, emerging markets getting trashed*Wait for the big dip*Commodities- Selling off, buy the coming lows*Currencies-sell the yen and euro, *Precious Metals- overbought once again*Volatility-Run your longs, still rising*Real estate-the next down leg has begun
22. Macro Millionairewith John Thomaswww.macromillionaire.com