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Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 14 , 2010. The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST. The Mad Hedge Fund Trader.
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Please Stand ByJohn Thomas for Macro MillionaireWednesday, March 14, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Impact of the Japanese Earthquakeand the huge trading opportunities it createsEmergency Strategy ReviewProfiting from disasterDiary of a Mad Hedge Fund TraderMarch 14, 2011www.madhedgefundtrader.com
The Collapse of the Japanese EconomyThe loss of the world’s third largest economy *Millions in Northern Japan are without food, water, and heat in freezing temperatures. Stores in most major cities have been cleaned out of food and gasoline.*Japan’s rail system has shut down. Tokyo subways have stopped running. No one can get to work.*Most of industrial Japan has shut down to count the dead*Severe power shortages mean rollingblack out in the industrial heartland.No quick comeback for the economy.*Mass evacuation of expatriates fleeing a nuclear melt down is underway.
Japanese Government Response *The BOJ has been ordered to “save Japan”*The largest intervention in the history of the foreign exchange markets*$186 billion of dollars bought, yen sold in the first hour*Could mark a 15 year top in the yen*Quantitative easing expanded to $500 billion*Ramping up the printing presses
Macro Millionaire Performance • February +3.98% March month to dateFirst 14 weeks of Trading+ 20.61% • Versus 10.5% for the S&P500
Portfolio ReviewBuilding More Aggressive Shorts5 out of 6 positions will do well, and no. 6 (Yen) may turnPerfectly positioned to benefit from the current crisis Small is beautiful
Our Japan Positionstop loss at $14.85 = ¥79$186 billion of BOJ Intervention in the first hour
The Earthquake’s Global ImpactThe earthquake that is shaking financial markets around the world *Slower economic Growth world wide*A stock market crash in Japan*Flight to safety bid for bonds and the dollar*Sharp sell of in commodity prices.*Global electronics parts shortage*The “RISK OFF” trade is in play
Equities *The world’s third largest economy is flipping from +2% quarterly growth to -3%*All company earnings forecasts have been rendered meaningless*No one had a giant destructive earthquake or a nuclear melt down in their budget for 2011*”RISK OFF” = sell stock
S & P 500 (SPY)the 50 day moving average is brokentaking a run at the 200 day average
Oil *Slower global growth brings less demand for oil*The Middle Eastern picture is calming*Supply glut in the US futures long in Chicago is 6X Oklahoma storage take delivery, or sell*Will Obama open the strategic petroleum reserve? This market the last two peaks in oil prices
The Position You’re Glad You Don’t HaveJapan Equity ETF (EWJ)
Bonds *Flight to safety bid is on*Recovery of an oversold condition that has built up in the last six months*Profit taking on shorts by hedge funds*Head and shoulders bottom onthe charts*Trading rally onlythe 20 year bear market in bonds has only just started, but will take a rest
Commodities *Slower economic growth means less demand for industrial commodities*Hedge fund profit taking on major long positions*Auto related commodities like platinum (PPLT) and Palladium (PALL) are especially hard hit.
Trade Sheet *Stocks-Keep your shorts, the earthquake will give us some downside juice*Bonds-Look for a rally and short volatility*Commodities- Selling off continues, earthquake delays recovery*Currencies-sell the yen and euro, flight to safety bid for dollar*Precious Metals- avoid, have run too far, possible short play setting up again*Volatility-Run your longs, still rising*Real estate-dieing a slow death
Follow This Letter! *Buy and hold is dead, trade or die! Don’t rush into the market now, wait for the market to come to you*Now is the time to rely on a newsletter where the writer speaks Japanese and has 40 years of experience in Japan*Learn which long term trends will reassert themselves*Volatility will remain high. Learn how to maximize your gains while limiting your risk *Market timing is crucial, I will send email alertson when to move*The black swans are coming*Know which instruments to trade
Macro Millionaire Global Strategy LuncheonsBuy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.com March 31, 2011 New York City, 12:00 noonApril 28, 2011 Phoenix, Arizona
European Strategy Luncheons April 4, 2011 London, England 12:00 noonApril 8, 2011 Paris, France 12:00 noon
To Access my Research Data Base Please Go towww.madhedgefundtrader.com