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Climate Modelling for CLIMNEG-2

Climate Modelling for CLIMNEG-2. Jean-Pascal van Ypersele Ben Matthews UCL-ASTR (Institut d’astronomie et de géophysique G. Lemaître) Web: www.climate.be E-mail: vanyp@climate.be matthews@climate.be (CLIMNEG2 User group meeting 16-12-2002). Outline. 1) The problem at hand

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Climate Modelling for CLIMNEG-2

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  1. Climate Modelling for CLIMNEG-2 Jean-Pascal van YperseleBen Matthews UCL-ASTR (Institut d’astronomie et de géophysique G. Lemaître) Web: www.climate.be E-mail: vanyp@climate.be matthews@climate.be (CLIMNEG2 User group meeting 16-12-2002)

  2. Outline 1) The problem at hand 2) What did we promise? 3) What have we delivered in 2002? 4) What will we do next? Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (vanypersele@astr.ucl.ac.be)

  3. 1) The problem at hand Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (vanypersele@astr.ucl.ac.be)

  4. The information chain leading to a climate projection

  5. 2) What did we promise? Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (vanypersele@astr.ucl.ac.be)

  6. Agarwal et al., 1999

  7. Task 3-A-1 Update & couple climate component of CWS (2002 & 2003) • Explicit treatment of non-CO2 GHG • Improve treatment of aerosols • Update C-cycle in CWS • Refine regional temperature estimates in CWS (incl. treatment of uncertainties) • Add sea-level module to CWS Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (vanypersele@astr.ucl.ac.be)

  8. Source: IPCC WGI 2001

  9. Carbon cycle Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (vanypersele@astr.ucl.ac.be) Units: GtC (109 tonnes of Carbon) or GtC/year

  10. 3) What have we delivered in 2002? • JCM improvements, including all elements of Task 3-A-1 (See Ben Matthews talk, and www.chooseclimate.org) • Integration within CWS is prepared • Brazilian proposal submission (see 4)) • Policy advice for COP8 • Many vulgarization/educational activities • (New Delhi work programme on UNFCCC Article 6) Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (vanypersele@astr.ucl.ac.be)

  11. 4) What will we do next? Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (vanypersele@astr.ucl.ac.be)

  12. Task 3-A-2 emission pathways leading to stabilization (2004) • Provide range of emission pathways leading to stabilization at various levels (in context of Article 2) • Contribute to identify criteria for« sustainable climate » • Study economic implications of these scenarios with CWS Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (vanypersele@astr.ucl.ac.be)

  13. Source: IPCC 2001

  14. Task 3-A-3 Explore possibility to link intermediate complexity model (e.g. MoBidiC) togeneral equilibrium model (e.g. GEM3-World) (2005) Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (vanypersele@astr.ucl.ac.be)

  15. Task 3-B-3 Policy recommendations (2003-2005) • Ongoing: • Participation in Brazilian proposal intercomparison exercice (UNFCCC Workshop, see www.cru.uea.ac.uk/unfccc_assessment/ • Participation in EU group of experts on climate research in COP8 • Recommendations within IPCC to develop stabilization scenarios Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (vanypersele@astr.ucl.ac.be)

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