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Labour market statistics and the economy: prospects and puzzles

The Jobs Economist. Labour market statistics and the economy: prospects and puzzles . John Philpott Inclusion LMI seminar 30 October 2013 www.thejobseconomist.org. Use (and abuse) of statistics. “You can prove anything with statistics!”

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Labour market statistics and the economy: prospects and puzzles

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  1. The Jobs Economist Labour market statistics and the economy: prospects and puzzles John Philpott Inclusion LMI seminar 30 October 2013 www.thejobseconomist.org

  2. Use (and abuse) of statistics “You can prove anything with statistics!” “You can’t prove anything (or at least not everything) with statistics” Support/Defend prior theory or view Basis of explanatory narrative

  3. My approach to explanatory narrative A labour market commentator, not an academic or statistician Treat established official statistics with due respect Apply Occam’s Razor Be open to change - admit when wrong, explain why Make clear that prediction/forecasting is an analytical tool (ceteris paribus!), not ‘astrology’

  4. Jobs Economist’s post-2008 surprises

  5. UK unemployment (rate 16+, seasonally adjusted, ONS/LFS)

  6. Puzzling labour market developments Productivity puzzle (jobs without growth)? Pay puzzle(break from normal pattern)? Persistence puzzle (stability in youth unemployment)?

  7. Productivity puzzle

  8. Pay slowdown and squeeze

  9. Break in redundancy trend also pre-dates recession

  10. Unprecedented real pay squeeze

  11. Insider power in further decline (WERS)

  12. More effective outsiders 1 (% LTU share)

  13. More effective outsiders 2 (fall in structural inactivity rate)

  14. Youth unemployment (rate 16-24, seasonally adjusted, ONS/LFS)

  15. Quarterly LM flow rates (UK seasonally adjusted)

  16. Trend in vacancies (000s,UK, seasonally adjusted

  17. Thinking about future prospects

  18. The Jobs Economist Thank You! John Philpott Inclusion LMI seminar 30 October 2013 www.thejobseconomist.org

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