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Corn and Soybeans Outlook Presentation to National Chicken Council

Analyzing the US corn and soybean market outlook with detailed supply, demand, and yield data, including planting progress, flood events impact, and renewable fuel standards. Insightful projections and trends discussed.

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Corn and Soybeans Outlook Presentation to National Chicken Council

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  1. Situation and Outlook for Corn and SoybeansPresented to:National Chicken CouncilBoard of Directors Greenbrier Hotel, White SulphurSprings, West VirginiaJune 17, 2011

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Demand May 11, 2011

  3. U.S. Corn Yield May WASDE forecast based on expected planting progress as of May 15th 158.7 1990-10 trend 1960-10 trend May 11, 2011

  4. Planting Progress, July Temps, and Corn Yields2009, 2010, & 2011P May 11, 2011

  5. U.S. Corn Supply and Demand June 9, 2011

  6. June 9, 2011

  7. Planting Progress and Changes in Acreage • Model results indicate changes from intended acreage: • Declines totaling 1.95 million acres in following States: • Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin • Increases totaling 0.45 million acres in following States: • Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska • Illinois unchanged • Net decline in planted area 1.5 million acres June 9, 2011

  8. Flood Events • May flooding along the lower Ohio and Mississippi River valleys • Early information suggests corn acreage losses from 100,000 to 150,000 acres • June flooding in Missouri River valley • Emergency discharges by Army Corps of Engineers through summer • Early information suggests corn acreage losses of 250,000-300,000 acres • Additional reduction in harvested area projected at 400,000 acres June 9, 2011

  9. Forecast Missouri River Flood Zone Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, June 8, 2011, http://omaha.com/assets/images/OW599664.JPG June 9, 2011

  10. Renewable Fuel Standard Source: Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.

  11. U.S. Blended Motor Gasoline Consumption 8.9 bil. gal. Source: DOE-Energy Information Administration, Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) and Annual Energy Outlook (AEO).

  12. U.S. Ethanol Production Capacity 2011 2012 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 Source: Production capacity from Renewable Fuels Association. RFS from Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.

  13. Ethanol Producer Net Returns Above Variable Costs / Spot prices - 15 cents / gal. (6/10/11) Note: USDA-WAOB estimates based on USDA-AMS plant reports and DOE-EIA estimates and forecasts for natural gas and electricity prices.

  14. Ethanol and RBOB Nearby Futures Prices Reformulate Gasoline Blend Stock (RBOB) $0.23 Ethanol Note: Ethanol prices based on CBOT nearby futures. RBOB (Reformulated Gasoline Blend Stock) based on NYME nearby futures.

  15. Ethanol and RBOB Nearby Futures Spreads 45-cent blender credit Blending incentive (6/13/11) = $0.68 (Ethanol – RBOB) Note: Ethanol prices based on CBOT nearby futures. RBOB (Reformulated Gasoline Blend Stock) based on NYME nearby futures.

  16. U.S. Weekly Gasoline ProductionAll Finished Blends and Ethanol Blends Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy, Energy Information Administration.

  17. U.S. Corn Used for Ethanol Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, June 9, 2011.

  18. U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand June 9, 2011

  19. Wheat (SRW) vs. Corn Futures CBOT July 2011 Contracts Wheat =Corn lb. for lb. (1.07 price ratio) Source: USDA-AMS.

  20. U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand June 9, 2011

  21. China Soybean Imports Million Tons

  22. U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Demand June 9, 2011

  23. U.S. Meat Production

  24. U.S. Protein Consumption Million Short Tons

  25. Soybean Meal Prices Dollars/Ton

  26. Soybean Meal – Corn Price Ratio Ratio

  27. U.S. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand June 9, 2011

  28. U.S. Biodiesel Production

  29. Soybean Oil Price and Stocks-to-Use Cents per lb Percent

  30. U.S. Meat Production and Prices June 9, 2011

  31. U.S. Meat TradeMillion Pounds June 9, 2011

  32. End of Presentation June 9, 2011

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