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Question. Does the estuarine Water Quality Sediment Transport Model (WQSTM) capture the range of short-term variability that has been observed in recent high-frequency data collections?. Premise.

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  1. Question Does the estuarine Water Quality Sediment Transport Model (WQSTM) capture the range of short-term variability that has been observed in recent high-frequency data collections? Premise A WQSTM that fails to simulate the extent of short-term variability in DO concentrations will provide a flawed estimate of the protective nature of the 30-day mean criterion relative to the 7-day mean, the 1-day mean, and/or the instantaneous minimum criteria.

  2. Methods • Matched location of Potomac Profiler with a stack of cells from the WQSTM • Binned profiler observations by depth into groups matching vertical cells at that location of the WQSTM • WQSTM: data from 1991-2000; Profiler: May-November 2009 • Compared empirical frequency distribution (EDF) of observations from summer 2009 with WQSTM simulations for the same date range of each year, 1991-2000. • Graphed time series of profiler data against a sample single-year of data (1991) from the WQSTM

  3. Potomac River Profiler and WQSTM grid

  4. EDFs By Depth

  5. Timeseries By Depth

  6. nprofiler = 1152 nprofiler = 120 nprofiler = 1232 Patterns Underlying Bimodal Distribution At Depth

  7. Changes with Depth Depth (m) 0 1.524 3.048 4.572 6.096 7.62 9.144 No profiler data 10.668 12.192 13.716

  8. Next Steps • Identify pycnocline boundaries in profiler data • Pull salinity and water temperature data from WQSTM; ID pycnocline boundaries • Is underestimate of bottom anoxia due to inconsistent simulation of stratification in this location? • Expand to other sets of profiler and buoy data • Consider implications for criteria assessment of WQSTM output and Umbrella Assumption • Suggestions?

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