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J.C. André, CERFACS– F M. Muller, MEDD – F J.P. Lacaux, Médias-France -F

FROM GICC , THE FRENCH RESEARCH PROGRAMME ABOUT MANAGEMENT AND IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO CIRCLE , A COORDINATED EUROPEAN INITIATIVE INCLUDING RUSSIA. J.C. André, CERFACS– F M. Muller, MEDD – F J.P. Lacaux, Médias-France -F G. Begni, Médias-France – F

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J.C. André, CERFACS– F M. Muller, MEDD – F J.P. Lacaux, Médias-France -F

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  1. FROM GICC, THE FRENCH RESEARCH PROGRAMME ABOUT MANAGEMENT AND IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO CIRCLE, A COORDINATED EUROPEAN INITIATIVE INCLUDING RUSSIA J.C. André, CERFACS– F M. Muller, MEDD – F J.P. Lacaux, Médias-France -F G. Begni, Médias-France – F M. König, Umweltbundesamt – A E. Gordov, SCERT – Russia.

  2. REMINDER : UNFCCC, Art. 2 Framework Convention on Climate Change, Art. 2 "The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner."

  3. REMINDER : THIRD IPCC REPORT (1) There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. Detection and attribution studies consistently find evidence for an anthropogenic signal in the climate record of the last 35 to 50 years.

  4. REMINDER : THIRD IPCC REPORT (2) • The world community faces many risks from climate change. Clearly, it is important to understand the nature of those risks, where natural and human systems are likely to be most vulnerable, and what may be achieved by adaptive responses. • Assessment of what constitutes dangerous interference in the climate systems will require analysis of the interactions of climate change and social and economic conditions, which are inextricably linked. Understanding the role of socioeconomic factors, particularly adaptive responses and capacity, is critical.

  5. REMINDER : THIRD IPCC REPORT (3)

  6. WHAT ARE THE MISSION & OBJECTIVES OF GICC ? • The mission of the GICCprogramme is to promote and develop French scientific research on identifying national 'Impacts of Climate Change' and associated physical mechanisms. • The main objective, downstream, is to provide sound scientific arguments in order to participate in the tuning of adaptive tools and techniques. • This will allow policy and decision makers from the public sector to optimize strategies for prevention and mitigation of those impacts.

  7. WHY DOES France NEEDS GICC ? • France presents a wide variety of natural landscapes & climatic regions facing quite diferent socio-economic situations. • In addition, overseas territories raise specific questions • A few years go, the study of impacts of climate change was in its infancy. Interdiciplinary studies had to be undertaken. • This is why the GICC programme was set up. • In parallel, each one backing the other, the « National Observatory of Climate Change Impacts » (ONERC) was also set up.

  8. WHO LEADS GICC ? • GICCis a key input to policy makers. It is a major component of the recently issued national « Climate Plan » • GICCis essentially managed by the Ministry of Ecology and Sustainable Development (MEDD) in close collaboration with the Inter-Ministerial Mission on Greenhouse Effect (MIES) • ADEME (Agency for Environment and Energy) also brings a contribution of its own • Some other institutions can also be associated on an ad-hoc basis, e.g French Institute for Biodiversity (IFB)

  9. HOW IS GICC MANAGED ? • The Steering Committee brings together some main public stakeholders under the co-chairmanship of MEDD & MIES and takes all the relevant decisions. • The independent Scientific Advisory Council • assists the SC in turning their needs into TORs for scientific calls, • peer-reviews the proposals for each call • Peer-reviews each intermediate and final report • Assists the SC in organizing scientific workshops and outreach events.

  10. HOW DOES GICC WORK ? • The GICC programme is divided into phases : • GICC-1 (calls:1999-2002; end: 2004) • GICC-2 (began in 2003) • Each phase has leading themes of its own. • A yearly call for proposal (APR) is issued. Such or such aspect of the leading themes may be emphasized. • The duration of each project is 2 to 3 years, thus creating overlaps between APRs and phases and generating learning from experience. • Synthesis workshops and outreach events are organized.

  11. WHICH GUIDELINES FOR GICC-1 ? • Keys for international negotiations, • GES reduction strategies in France and in the EU • Risks linked to climate change: evaluation, impacts, adaptation strategies, • Methodological developments.

  12. WHICH THEMES FOR GICC-1 ? (1-4) 1 – Evolution scenarios for the mean & extreme climate evolutions in 21th century.   2 – Interactions between climate, economy & society; managing the various timescales.   3 – What is the role of carbon forest sequestration and agricultural practices in climate policies?   4 - Bridging national &international actions.

  13. WHICH THEMES FOR GICC-1 ? (5-8) 5 – Towards new direct or indirect raw emission inventories for GHG’s & aerosols.  6 – Which impacts on terrestrial biosphere? 7 - Which impacts on hydrosystems?   8 - Which impacts on health?

  14. WHICH RECOMMENDATIONS FROM THE GICC-1 WORKSHOP?(1) • Climate:T and P evolutions are now reasonably understood, including associated incertitude - We must now better address extreme events. • New inventories: Having an overarching comprehensive methodology is mandatory (uncertainties, scales, stakeholders). Key questions identified.

  15. WHICH RECOMMENDATIONS FROM THE GICC-1 WORKSHOP?(2) Economical aspects: • Fair inter-comparison of economic tools; • Importance of defining ‘trajectories’ to orient decision making processes; • Take retroactions in proper account; • Uncertainties: switch from scenarios to quantitative estimation; • Need to better quantify damages; • Importance of agricultural sector in GHG reduction - comparative costs to be studied in-depth; • Forest issues to be better understood. • Governance and negotiators awareness ( => extending economical aspects to social and political sciences)

  16. WHICH RECOMMENDATIONS FROM THE GICC-1 WORKSHOP?(3) • Terrestrial biosphere:Productivity & phenology changes fairly addressed; need for databases; set up links to biodiversity. • Hydrosystems: Significant preliminary results got. Set up an overarching methodology that takes anthropic action changes into account. • Health. Interdisciplinary teams have been set up. Switch from a statistical to a mechanist approach through processes modelling; address animal and vegetal health.

  17. WHICH RECOMMENDATIONS FROM THE GICC-1 WORKSHOP?(4) GENERAL CONCLUSIONS: A lot of research job has been done. Gaps (e.g. better uncertainties quantification, regional aspects including stakeholders) , possible synergies and ways to go further have been identified: • Learn from GICC-1 to better define GICC-2 • Open to international co-operation

  18. WHICH GUIDELINES FOR GICC-2 ? A GICC-1 follow-out step, that emphasises the following issues: • Regional dimension , including scientific issues (mean trend, extreme events), societal perception, public policies implementation, related technological innovation fostering. • Links with biological sciences, human health, biodiversity, and emerging vegetal diseases.

  19. AND NOW …TWO QUESTIONS TO YOU, LISTENER DO YOU THINK INDEED THAT OTHER COUNTRIES EXPERIENCE A BETTER SITUATION? DO YOU THINK INDEED THAT CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES STOP AT THE BORDERS? SO…..

  20. WORKING ALONE OR TOGETHER ? • France is studying climate change impacts through GICC …. • Germany does the same through DEKLIM …. • And so on all over Europe! • For sure, each country has features and policies of its own, BUT ….. • Sharing research efforts would suppress inefficient duplications, allow to exchange results and address new issues at new scales.

  21. THE RIGHT WAY : ERA-NET ! Within the framework of the European Research Area (ERA) & the 6th Research Framework Programme (FP6), the EC has implemented among others the ERA-NET scheme. The ERA-NET Scheme is about the coordination and cooperation of national &regional programmes and as such, it aims at the national and regional programme makers and managers. This is what we were looking for !

  22. THE RIGHT CONCEPT:CIRCLE ! (1) The Austrian Agency for Environment defined an ERA- NET initiative to federate European programmes that address ……… First step: A Specific Support Action to better know these programmes (2004-5) Second step: A concerted action to lead actual exchanges and actions (2005-9).

  23. WHICH PRESENTCIRCLE KEY STEPS ? The Specific Support Action is under completion (key meeting in Helsinki, 12-15 April 2005) The Concerted Action has been very carefully prepared during a final meeting in DLR, Bonn (end February 2005) and submitted to the EC on March 02. We are now waiting for results…

  24. THE CIRCLE CA PARTNERS : Black : members Grey: Observers Can evolve with time (namely for Russia)

  25. I Learn: Exchangeknowledge and experiences on the national programmes, their areas of focus, and their scientific and management practices to learn from each other. II Plan: Decide strategic issues, determine ways to collaborate and define tangible and doable activities to support each other in the future. III Connect Establish operational linksbetween programmes by putting plans into action and by creating synergies that bring about tangible mutual benefits. IV Fulfil: Reach the goalof the first strategic re-structuring of European Climate Change Impact Research funding by implementing trans-national activities. THE CIRCLE CA ‘VERTICAL’ ACTIVITIES

  26. 1 Lead: Operationally manage the project at consortium level, ensure high output quality and, likewise, strategically guide the creation of a vision among the partners 2 Continue Create a platform that ensures the coordination work will go on after the project has finished and prepare future joint project activities 3 Group: Support and organisearea-related groups within the consortium, such as neighbouring countries which want to address similar issues related to their geo-climatic area . 4 Spread: Create awareness by disseminating the project results at various levels in targeted ways to decision makers, other research programmes and networks, and to researchers THE CIRCLE CA ‘HORIZONTAL’ ACTIVITIES

  27. I II III IV LEARN PLAN CONNECT FULFIL 1 LEAD 2 CONTINUE 3 GROUP 4 SPREAD THE CIRCLE CA MATRIX

  28. FROM ATLANTIC TO URAL .. AND BEYONDTHROUGH GICC, CIRCLE & SIRS ..

  29. LET US WORK TOGETHER FOR OUR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT!

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