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Rob Keefe WHR National Real Estate Update

Rob Keefe WHR National Real Estate Update. Advancing > Lives > Forward >.

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Rob Keefe WHR National Real Estate Update

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  1. Rob Keefe WHR National Real Estate Update Advancing > Lives > Forward >

  2. “We are a specialized relocation company solely focused on advancing the lives of our clients’ employees by delivering high-touch relocation services that are customized to the culture and business practices of our clients” Advancing > Lives > Forward >

  3. Background • President of regional real estate brokerage • Real estate development company • Supervised title agency • President of mortgage broker/bank • Active in organized real estate • WRA Chair (2012) • NAR Director/Taxation Committee Advancing > Lives > Forward >

  4. Agenda • National real estate market conditions • Market issues • Brokerage trends Advancing > Lives > Forward >

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  15. 33% Advancing > Lives > Forward >

  16. Market Issues Advancing > Lives > Forward >

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  21. Top 20 Markets for Drop in Listing Count (Year over Year) Advancing > Lives > Forward >

  22. Inventory Compression • California down to 2.6 months inventory, a 40% drop from 2012 • Sacramento at 1.1 months inventory • Seattle (King County) at 1.4 months inv a 50% drop from 2012 • Minneapolis at 3.0 months • Washington DC less than 2 months Advancing > Lives > Forward >

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  24. One cause of listing drop Advancing > Lives > Forward >

  25. 20 MSA’s with highest average listing age Advancing > Lives > Forward >

  26. A tale of two cities • Sacramento, CA • Asheville, NC Median listing age = 27 days Y/Y change in listing count = -67.2% Months inventory = 1.1 Median listing age = 149 days Y/Y change in listing cout = -10.6% Months inventory = 5+ Advancing > Lives > Forward >

  27. Tight credit continues to weigh on market • 37% of mortgages have >20% down payment • 2001-04 approx 40% of borrowers had FICO >740 • In 2012 this is over 50% overall, over 70% for FNMA/FHLMC • Essentially no sub-prime, Alt-A market • NAR estimates deficit of 500-700k sales Advancing > Lives > Forward >

  28. Appraisals continue to kill deals Advancing > Lives > Forward >

  29. Other Federal issues • Mortgage Interest Deductibility • FHA solvency • Short sale expediting • Future of GSE’s • General fiscal chaos and uncertainty Advancing > Lives > Forward >

  30. NAR’s View • Upside … Credit Availability • Housing recovery so far even with tight credit • What happens if mortgage accessibility opens up? • Counter-cyclical housing policy … lower FHA premiums and lower GSE g-fees • Downside … Washington Policy • QRM 20% down payment requirement? • Basel 3 … capital rule that punishes private mortgage with low down payment and commercial loans • Trim mortgage interest deduction? • Capital gains tax on home sale? Advancing > Lives > Forward >

  31. Brokerage Developments Advancing > Lives > Forward >

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  41. Summary • National market in recovery • Listing shortage in certain markets • Federal policies are putting damper on market • Appraisals continue to be challenging • Revolution in consumer-directed real estate data • Agents beginning to be put under microscope Advancing > Lives > Forward >

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