Job Search Success in Local Labour Markets Ronald W. McQuaid, Malcolm Greig and John Adams

1. Employment Research Institute Napier University Job Search Success in Local Labour Markets Ronald W. McQuaid, Malcolm Greig and John Adams ESRC Seminar, Edinburgh, 6-8 January 2004

2. Employment Research Institute Napier University Labour Market Policies • 1980s - 1990s progressive tightening of policy • ‘active’ and ‘deterrent’ policies • demand-side • supply-side emphasise • increasing targeting of certain groups • inappropriate targeting of active labour market policies can lead to inefficiencies of displacement, deadweight and substitution

3. Employment Research Institute Napier University New Deal Targets • young (aged 18-24) • long-term unemployed • lone parents • disabled people • the unemployed aged fifty plus • partners of unemployed people • disadvantaged communities (for example: Employment Action Zones, Priority Partnership Areas, Social Inclusion Partnerships, Single Regeneration Budget areas)

4. Employment Research Institute Napier University Study • demand-side (126 firms) • supply-side • 306 interviews, 169 follow through • 70 (41%) found a job and 99 (59%) did not • profiling the success of different groups in finding employment • explaining the success

5. Employment Research Institute Napier University Attributes • Socio-demographic variables • Human capital variables • Financial variables • Job search variables • Spatial variables • Residential variables

6. Employment Research Institute Napier University Model • factor analysis in order to develop a multi-dimensional profile of (un)successful job seekers • Factors were extracted using Principal Component Analysis with Varimax rotation • The factor scores (values with respect to each observation for each factor identified) were then analysed using binary logistic regression analysis taking employment success as the dependent variable, measured by the variable FOUNDAJOB

7. Factor1 Factor 2 Factor 3 Factor 4 Factor 5 MARRIED (+) BGATE (+) PTPT (+) QUALITY (+) MANUAL (+) DEPS (+) BUS79 (-) PTTEMP (+) DEPRIV (-) EDQUAL (-) AGE (+) ACCESS (+) PRESSTIME (+) WMTIME (+) PROFQUAL (+) PRESSTIME (-) AOSTIME (+) RESWAG (+) EATIME (+) TOTINC (+) PRTRANS (+) OWNEROCC (+) LIVFAM (-) Table I: Factor Components

8. Factor 6 Factor 7 Factor 8 Factor 9 CTENANT (+) FEMALE (-) AGE (+) PTPT (+) OWNEROCC (-) TTWTIME (+) LENU (+) JCTIME (+) DEPRIV (+) LIVFAM (-)

9. Table II: Estimated Regression Equation Coefficients for Employment Success Table II: Estimated Regression Equation Coefficients for Employment Success Factor Coefficient estimate F1 ‘family characteristics’ 0.308* F2 ‘accessible, non-metropolitan’ 0.355** F3 ‘flexible’ 0.022 F4 ‘motivated’ 2.009 F5 ‘unskilled’ 0.247 F6 ‘socially excluded 0.029 F7 ‘male commuter’ 0.242 F8 ‘older long-term unemployed’ -0.699*** F9 ‘willing to work part-time’ 0.179 Constant -0.491*** *** Significant at 1% level ** significant at 5% level *significant at 10% level

10. Employment Research Institute Napier University Conclusions • Factor 1 is significantly positively correlated with finding a job. This is interpreted as ‘family’. • Factor 2 is significantly positively associated with finding a job - ‘accessible, non-metropolitan’ • most significant set of attributes (Factor 8) is interpreted as ‘older, long-term unemployed’ (and who unsurprisingly does not live with their parents), which is negatively associated with finding a job • focus of New Deal 50+ on the older, long-term unemployed is supported • Next phase

12. DEFINITION OF VARIABLES Socio-demographic variables FEMALE = 1 if the job seeker is female, 0 if male MARRIED = 1 if the job seeker is married, 0 otherwise DEPS = 1 if the job seeker has dependent children, 0 otherwise AGE = age of job seeker in years LONEPAR= 1 if the job seeker is a lone parent Human capital variables MANUAL = 1 if job seeker was formerly employed in a manual occupation, 0 otherwise EDQUAL = level of academic qualifications from 0 (none) to 7 (higher degree) PROFQUAL = level of professional/vocational qualifications from 0 (none) to 3 (advanced) LENU = number of weeks that job seeker has been unemployed QUALITY = self-perceived quality index of transferable skills Financial variables RESWAG = minimum weekly wage job seeker is willing to work for TOTINC = monthly non-earned income

13. Job search variables N_APPS = total number of applications made by job seeker in the 6 months prior to interview JCTIME = average weekly time (hours) spent searching in Jobcentres PRESSTIME= average weekly time (hours) spent searching in newspapers WMTIME= average weekly time (hours) spent searching through word of mouth AOSTIME= average weekly time (hours) spent on speculative job applications EATIME= average weekly time (hours) spent searching through agencies PTPT = prepared to accept part-time employment PTTEMP = prepared to accept temporary employment (time spent searching through employment agencies omitted due to low usage) Spatial variables BGATE= 1 if job seeker resident in Bathgate TTWA, 0 if Edinburgh TTWA TTWTIME = job seeker’s maximum stated daily travel to work time (minutes) BUS79 = number of buses between job seeker’s residence and CBD from 7am to 9am ACCESS = accessibility index measuring travel time from job seeker’s residence to major centres of employment PRTRANS = 1 if job seeker has access to private transport, 0 otherwise Residential variables DEPRIV = measure of local postcode area social deprivation 0 (low) to 3 (high) CTENANT = 1 if job seeker is a council tenant, 0 otherwise* OWNEROCC = 1 if job seeker is an owner occupier, 0 otherwise* LIVFAM = 1 if job seeker lives with parents, 0 otherwise* *(Base class is private tenant)