Organic Yield-Gap Analysis for US Organic Crops, 2016

1. Organic Yield-Gap Analysis for US Organic Crops, 2016 An analysis based on a detailed Organic survey conducted by the USDA in 2016 compared with the general survey of US agriculture that is conducted by the USDA every growing year. Analysis by Steve Savage, Ph.D., Agricultural Scientist

2. Why this report? • As we approach the 2020s, many consumers have accepted the marketing/activist narrative that Organic farming would be the best option for food safety and to mitigate the most damaging effects of climate change. • The “Inconvenient Truth” is that Organic farming is a terrible option from a climate change perspective. It’s dependence on manures and compost involves huge, but rarely recognized greenhouse gas emissions in terms of the very potent greenhouse gases methane and nitrous oxide. But perhaps its biggest climate change issue is that Organic farms are mostly less productive per unit area than “conventionally” farmed land (see the slides in this presentation). That means that with rising food demand driven now mostly by rising standards of living in the developing world, there is a need to farm production and that means the very undesirable conversion of forests or grasslands to agriculture in places like Brazil. That leads to major carbon dioxide release from what had been sequestered carbon in the soils and also the loss of biodiversity and other “environmental services” provided by those natural lands. • Each year the USDA does a survey of crop acreage and yield, but in some years they also do a detailed survey of those parameters for the USDA Certified Organic growers. The data from both of these survey efforts is transparently available on-line down to the county level. Unfortunately for the protection of the privacy of individual Organic farmers in counties with very little organic acreage the data is only available at the state or even only at the national level. This makes it hard to do a completely rigorous comparison of per-acre productivity of Organic vs Conventional production systems, but at the available state-level, the lower productivity of organic farming is quite striking. For reasons that are not clear, the USDA does not publish any sort of comparison of their conventional and organic survey data. I have asked them about this but never have gotten a response. • As an agricultural scientist and someone very concerned about the ramifications of Climate Change for my children and grandchildren I want to explain to consumers that if they share my concerns they should specifically avoid supporting the unsustainable Organic farming industry. I don’t question the good intentions of the farmers or consumers, I just want to challenge them with the truths that should influence their decisions.

3. Background on what “Organic” farming means • The Organic farming movement started in the late 1800s and early 1900s in response to issues that had arisen in plough-based agriculture which had converted most of the prairie land in the American Midwest to farmland through the process of “sod-busting.” Spurred by the Homestead Act of 18xx, xxxs of Americans moved to the Midwest to claim their 640 acres of government land give-away. Most used the new “polished steel plow” made by the John Deere company to turn what was once a diverse grassland ecosystem into what became one of the most productive agricultural region in the world. However, the way that these farmers needed to control weeds and make the land suitable for planting was to mechanically disturb the soil and that lead to the death of many soil organisms and the breakdown of the organic matter that they had made using the energy supplied by the plants that grew there. Over time as the soil was degraded by this tillage it became less fertile, less able to capture and store rainfall and less productive. The common solution was often to then move on to “virgin” land and do the same thing to the biome there. • The true innovation of the early Organic movement was the realization that for a soil to remain as a productive site over time, the organic matter content of the soil had to be replenished after each crop harvest. Their solution was to import large quantities of organic matter from other sites in the form of the manure or composted manure from the animals fed on those other agricultural acres. This worked, but it was never nor is it now a viable solution for US or global agriculture. • Even so, starting with the Rhodale Institute’s publication of “Organic Gardening” magazine in the 1960s and the eventual establishment of a commercial Organic industry in the 1970s, the mostly non-farmer consumers in US society were told the story that Organic farming was the best way to both feed us and protect the environment. • In 1990 the USDA (US Department of Agriculture) was charged by congress with coming up with a national “Organic Standard” to supersede the fragmented certification systems that had evolved to that time. It was a major struggle because the very science-oriented USDA was at odds with the early organic marketers who had focused entirely on the narrative that what is “natural” is always best. The marketers finally prevailed and when in 2002 the national Organic standards were issued they were not based on science but rather on the naturalistic fallacy.

4. 2016 US Crops By Class So here is the big picture. The only crop category for which Organic yields were higher than the 2016 US average was for forage crops for feeding animals. To have produced all of the US agricultural output from 2016 as Organic would have required more than 100 million more acres to have been farmed -an area greater than that of the entire state of California, the third largest state. That amount of new land suitable for farming clearly does not exist in the US and so that shortfall would induce more conversion of forest and grassland into farming in places like Brazil leading to major releases of previously sequestered carbon in those soils

5. US Forage Crops 2016 There were higher yields for Organic Hay and Haylage for animal feed in 2016 but for other animal feed crops the Organic yield was quite a bit lower

6. Alfalfa For Hay 17.1 million acres of alfalfa is grown for hay, mainly to feed dairy cattle. 1.71% of that land is in Certified Organic acres. Most of that land is much less productive.

7. US Legume Crops 2016 Plant-based protein in an important component of the human and animal diet, but only relatively minor crops like Pinto Beans and Austrian Winter Beans had higher yields as Organic in the 2016 season. Nearly 2 million additional acres would have been needed to produce these crops as ”Only Organic.” This is in spite of the fact that these crops require much less nitrogen fertilization because they have an association with soil bacteria that fix atmospheric nitrogen for them in trade for energy.

8. US Major Grain Crops 2016 Corn, Soybeans and Sorghum grown for grain accounted for 50% of all US crop acres in 2016. These are the crops that provide most of the feed and biofuel for the US as well as many major food ingredients. To have produced these crops as organic would have required 77 million acres to be farmed, something that would drive major land-use-conversion in places like Brazil and the associated climate and biodiversity impacts of that change.

9. US Small Grains 2016 Small grains are a major part of the human diet and with the exception of the relatively small crop, rye, these plants do not yield very well in Organic systems. To have supplied the domestic and important global market for these grains as Organic would have required 33 million more planted acres, an area comparable to the entire state of Arkansas. Since many of these crops have quality issues associated with where they are grown there are really not places in the US or the rest of the world where this could happen

10. The only vegetable crop for which Organic yields were higher was sweet potatoes. Organic represents 4.9% of total vegetable acreage in the US – much more than the overall 0.5% for all crops. Since many vegetable crops do best in specific climatic zones that significant current Organicx footprint probably serves to raise overall prices for consumers even if they do not purchase organic. When that issue is added to the fear of pesticide residues on vegetables driven by the EWG’s “Dirty Dozen List” this only contributes to the missed health advantages of vegetables in the diets of many consumers. To have produced all the 2016 US grown vegetables as organic would have required 1.75 million more acres to be grown - something clearly not possible. US Vegetable Crops 2016

11. US Nut Crops 2016 Tree nuts are considered to be a very healthy component of the diet and may even reduce over-eating that causes obesity because of their ability to make consumers feel “full.” These are crops that only flourish is certain climates so there is no possibility that they could all be raised as organic as that would require 1.5 million more acres to be planted to those crops.

12. US Small Fruit Crops 2016 Organic yields of small fruits are often much lower than the national average. This is particularly true for strawberries, cranberries and wild blueberries. The one exception is “tame” blueberries, mostly in Washington state. To have produced all of this healthy fruit as Organic would have required 238,000 more acres which simply does not exist in areas with a suitable climate. In the case of strawberries if the 11.6% of that valuable coastal land had been grown conventionally there would have been 194 million pounds more strawberries available to consumers, probably at a lower price.

13. US Tree Fruit Crops 2016 Organic makes up 2.61% of the land used to grow tree fruit and grapes. To produce all the fruit as organic would require a half a million more acres of land. The citrus crop data is complicated by the difference in organic and conventional between whether they are grown in California or in Florida where a devastating invasive bacterial disease has dramatically reduced yields. The best hopes for the future of the California industry depend on mostly non-organic pest control solutions.

14. Other US Crops 2016 Organic Tobacco constitutes 3.1% of the total acreage of this cancer causing crop. Hops which is a booming industry these days for craft beer brewing is 1.3% Organic. Sunflower which is the most significant crop in this list is planted on 2.7 million US acres and an additional 1.1 million acres would be required to produce it as Organic. Most cotton production has shifted to India and other places in Asia and Africa because it is one of the very few crops grown in those regions with be grower benefits of insect resistance and herbicide tolerance. Still, there are 9.5 million US acres grown and it would take another 1.5 million acres to produce this important fiber crop as organic

15. Conclusions • So the good news is that Organic remains a tiny part of US agriculture. The not so good news is that for the key healthy fruit and vegetable crops it is enough of a factor to raise the prices for even those who don’t buy Organic. • Eliminating Organic agriculture would not be nearly enough to help with Climate Change mitigation, but some alternative marketing category that would reward the farmers who are doing the best kind of “Climate Friendly” farming could be a real contribution (Farmers doing no-till, cover crops, etc) • As consumers our most Climate-responsible buying behavior should be to reject Organic and it’s false narratives.