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North Energy Q3 2011. 9 November 2011. Important information.
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North Energy Q3 2011 9 November 2011
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Agenda • Highlights Q3 • Financial update • Exploration update • Outlook & Summary
Highlights Q3 • Disappointing wildcat well in the Barents Sea • The Heilo reservoir proved better than expected, however water filled • Increased volume estimate on Fogelberg • Conceptual studies ongoing • Promising results from internal Norvarg study • Expecting appraisal well Q4 next year • APA 2011 application • Selective application targeting attractive opportunities in core areas • Strong financial position • Net cash of NOK 238 million
Agenda • Highlights Q3 • Financial update • Exploration update • Outlook & Summary
North Energy ASA – Profit & Loss • Exploration expenses NOK 85 million higher than Q3 2010 • Financial expenses up NOK 10 million from Q2 2011 due to increased activity
High activity level driving exploration costs • Drill decisions moving closer – increased need for seismic and data processing • Dry well at Heilo *) PL 503 Valberget, PL 595 Jaktfalk, PL 587 Grenoble and PL 526 Karl
North Energy ASA - Balance sheet • Fixed assets up NOK 260 million from year-end 2010 • Capitalized drilling costs on Fogelberg and Norvarg • Tax refund December 2011 of NOK 350 million • 33% equity ratio
Net cash according to plan Net cash position as of Q3 2011 • Net cash position of NOK 238 million • NOK 310 million undrawn of NOK 760 million exploration financing facility • Developing in line with funding plans at the IPO 31 363 350 Cash 2011 Tax refund 2012 Tax refund Net working capital Interest-bearing debt Net cash
Next 4 wildcat wells financed NOK million • NOK 670 million raised before and in the IPO • NOK 270 million raised from investors in Northern Norway • NOK 432 million invested since start up in 2007: • Organization, systems and network • 4 wells, incl. one production test • 4 years running expenses • Next 4 wildcat wells financed by remaining funds and the exploration financing facility 700 Acc. capital injection 650 Acc. expenses 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Q4 07 Q4 08 Q4 09 Q4 10 Q3 11
Agenda • Highlights Q3 • Financial update • Exploration update • Outlook & Summary
Strong track record and exciting outlook PROSPECTS PRE-DRILL ESTIMATES POST-DRILL ESTIMATES 50% success rate DRILLED WELLS • Five firm wells next 12 months – all close to infrastructure • Targeting 172 million boe of net resources (unrisked) – 81% oil prone FIRM WELLS All volumes in million barrels of oil equivalents (mmboe) *) Fogelberg volumes updated with operator’s latest estimate **) Norvarg volumes updated with results from internal study ***) Storebjørn volumes harmonized with operator’s estimate
Drawing lessons from dry Heilo well • Better reservoir quality than expected, however water filled • No oil shows in cuttings • Oil still believed to have passed through the Heilo area and into Nucula (geochem correlation) • Migration routes and uplift model to be revisited • Still possible to find oil in Heilo Head and North • However, increased risk due to the dry well in Heilo South Heilo Head (prospect) Heilo North (prospect) Heilo South (dry) 7124/4-1S Dry
Increased volume estimate on Fogelberg 09.11.11 Feasibility Studies Conceptual Studies Pre-engineering Detailed Engineering, Construction, Start-up Production Production • Resource estimates recently updated by the operator • Centrica increased the P50 estimate with 45% at BOK (“Beslutning Om Konkretisering”) • Continuing towards PDO without appraisal well • Evaluating bringing gas through TTS/Nyhamna alongside Zidane BOK BOV PDO Operator’s first estimate North Energys GeoX estimate Operator’s updated estimate P90 (low) P50 (base) P10 (high)
Increased expectations to Norvarg 09.11.11 Appraisal Feasibility Studies Conceptual Studies Pre-engineering Detailed Eng, Construction Production • Increased expectations to Norvarg volumes • Results from internal Norvarg study suggest a P50 estimate of 260 mmboe recoverable gas • Expecting appraisal well in Q4 2011 • The operator is currently preparing basis for appraisal program BOK BOV PDO Operator’s first estimate North Energys GeoX estimate Operator’s updated estimate N/A N/A N/A N/A P90 (low) P50 (base) P10 (high)
Positive regional effects of Norvarg • Break through gas production test from the Kobbe formation • Has lifted the potential in large areas towards the north and east • Future exploration success depends on differentiating between good and bad Triassic targets • Additional discoveries in the Triassic will support a new trunk line to the North Sea gas grid Short term investment return Good Medium Poor Possible new trunk line Risk of non-producing reservoir reduced by the Norvarg well
PL 518 Zapffe – drilling ongoing • Located close to the Goliat field (under development) • The license contains the Zapffe prospect (combination of Tau East and Ypsilon) as well as many leads • In case of discovery a sidestep is planned to appraise the find
PL 450 Storebjørn – high PoS oil prospect • Located 8 km south west of the Ula field and 6 km north west of the Gyda field • Spudding of well expected in Q1 2012 • Fast track PDO possible in case of discovery • Upside in other prospects
PL 370 / PL 370 B Kakelborg – drilling in Q1 2012 • Located north west of Statfjord and Snorre • Kakelborg in Paleocene is the main prospect – additional lead in Jurassic • Oil development as standalone FPSO in the high case and subsea development with tie-back to Snorre in the low case
PL 385 Jette – drilling expected mid 2012 • Located on the Halten Terrace within 20 km of the Norne FPSO • Spare capacity for possible tie-in at Norne in 2014
PL 498 Skagen – drilling in 2012 • Located in an oil producing area close to the Ula and Gyda fields • A discovery on Skagen is assumed developed with an unmanned wellhead platform as a satellite to the Ula field • Skagen is expected to be spudded in Q3 (Maersk Guardian)
Exploration track record and outlook mmboe 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Fogelberg* Stirby Norvarg** Heilo Zapffe Storebjørn*** Kakelborg Jette Skagen Scarecrow**** Net unrisked pre-drill volume (completed wells) Accumulated, net pre-drill volume (risked) Net unrisked pre-drill volume (upcoming wells) Accumulated, net post-drill volume *) Fogelberg post drill volumes updated with operator’s latest estimate, **) Norvarg post drill volumes updated with results from internal study, ***) Storebjørn pre drill volumes harmonized with operator’s estimate, ****) The drill decision on Scarecrow has yet not been taken
Drilling program with timing uncertainties in 2012 Zapffe Storebjørn Kakelborg Skagen Jette Norvarg, appraisal Scarecrow 2011 I 2012 I 2013 Possible appraisal oil Oil Gas-Condensate
Agenda • Highlights Q3 • Financial update • Exploration update • Outlook & Summary
Outlook • 6 months outlook • Result from the Zapffe exploration well in the Barents Sea (ongoing) • Storebjørn exploration well in North Sea • Kakelborg exploration well in the North Sea • Decision on appraisal program for Norvarg • Drill or drop decision on PL 510 Scarecrow • APA 2011 award • 12 months outlook • Drilling of Jette in the Norwegian Sea and Skagen in the North Sea • Drill or drop decision on operated licenses 526 and 590 in the Norwegian Sea • Drill or drop decision on PL 536 and PL 564 in the Barents Sea • APA 2012 application • 18 months outlook • Drilling of at least eight wildcat wells • Drill or drop decision on PL 503 • 22nd round application
Summary • Disappointing wildcat well in the Barents Sea • Increased volume estimate on Fogelberg • Promising results from internal Norvarg study • Strong track record after 4 wells • 5 firm wells planned for the next 12 months • Selective application in the APA 2011 round • Strong financial position