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BSAI SAFE Report November 2004

Navarin. W. Bering. BSAI SAFE Report November 2004. Commander Is. Gulf of Alaska. Alaska Fisheries Science Center. BSAI Plan Team Members (12 Members). NPFMC -- Jane DiCosimo (Plan Coordinator) NMFS -- Loh-Lee Low (Chair) Mike Sigler (Vice Chair) Grant Thompson

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BSAI SAFE Report November 2004

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  1. Navarin W. Bering BSAI SAFE ReportNovember 2004 Commander Is. Gulf of Alaska Alaska Fisheries Science Center

  2. BSAI Plan Team Members (12 Members) NPFMC -- Jane DiCosimo (Plan Coordinator) NMFS -- Loh-Lee Low (Chair) Mike Sigler (Vice Chair) Grant Thompson Lowell Fritz Kerim Aydin Andy Smoker USF&W -- Kathy Kuletz ADF&G -- Ivan Vining Dave Carlile Univ.Alaska-- Brenda Norcross WDF&W -- Vacant Halibut Comm-- Bill Clark

  3. Nov 2004 BSAI SAFE ReportsMany Contributors from Agencies and Universities 32 Authors for Status of Stocks Section 106 Contributors to Ecosystems Section 4 Authors for Economics Chapter

  4. Alaska Landings2.5 million mt (1998-2001)(From OLO, 4 Yr Average)

  5. Ex-Vessel Value of All Alaska Landings$1.08 Billion (2001-2003 Average)(From Table 2.1 of Economic Chapter)

  6. Alaska Groundfish Landings2.088 million mt (2001-2003)(from Table 1, Economics Section, 3 Yr Average)

  7. Bering Sea-Aleutians Groundfish Catch26 Year History (in thousands of mt)(from Table 1, Economics Section) 91-92

  8. BSAI SAFE 1. Assessment Theme 2. Overview 3. Species-by-Species Review 4. Summary of Changes

  9. Assessment ThemeDefinition of ABC and Overfishing LevelsPlan Team Summary, Pages 5-6 ABC or Overfshing Level = Biomass x Specific Exploitation Rate 1. Determine Biomass from -- Surveys….Hydroacoustics, Trawls -- Models…..Age or Length-Structure Models Determine Exploitation Rates (By Catch Control Rules of 6-Tier System) -- F overfishing ……. Example F 35% -- F abc …………… Example F 40%

  10. Fishing Rates by Fishing Control Rules Quality of Information about Population Dynamics of the Stocks and Use Catch Control Rules according to 6 Tiers of Data Quality (Pages 5-6 of SAFE Summary) Tier 1 -- Reliable B, Bmsy, pdf of Fmsy Tier 2 -- Reliable B, Bmsy, Fmsy, F35, F40 Tier 3 – reliable B, B40, F35, F40 Tier 4 – reliable B, F35, F40 Tier 5 -- reliable B and M Tier 6 – reliable Catch History Data

  11. Sablefish Longline Survey

  12. Overview of Exploitable Biomass By Major Species Groups

  13. Nov 2004 AssessmentBSAI Exploitable BiomassYear 2005 Total = 17.741 MMT(down 212,820 mt from last year)

  14. Nov 2004 AssessmentBSAI BiomassBy Major 6 Groups

  15. Nov 2004 AssessmentBSAI Flatfish Complex BiomassYear 2004 Total = 5.338 MMT(up 145,300 mt from last year)

  16. Nov 2004 AssessmentBSAI Rockfish Complex BiomassYr 2003 Total = 555,200 MT(up 91,770 mt from last year)

  17. Overview of Plan Team Estimated ABCs By Major Species Groups

  18. Nov 2004 AssessmentsBSAI Groundfish Complex ABCs Year 2005 Total = 3.1 MMT(Down 0.5 mmt from last year, mostly from EBS Pollock)

  19. Nov 2004 AssessmentBSAI Flatfish Complex ABCYear 2005 Total = 636,830 MT(Down 14,310 mt from last year)

  20. Nov 2004 AssessmentBSAI Rockfish Complex ABCsYear 2005 Total = 25,079 MT(up 2,584 mt from last year)

  21. BSAI Groundfish Complex Yr 2004 OFL = 4.19 ABC = 3.6 mmt TAC = 2.0 mmt Yr 2005 OFL = 3.57 ABC = 3.1 mmt TAC = ??? 2004 2005

  22. DescriptionSpecies-by-Species

  23. Model Biomass of PollockEBS, Age 3+

  24. Recruitment estimates from Model

  25. Near-term outlook

  26. EBS Pollock Ave 25-Yr Age 1 R = 25 Billion Fish

  27. EBS Pollock AssessmentNotable Features 1. Year 2004 Surveys Bottom Trawl Biomass = 3.75 mmt, down 54% from 2003; but 2003 survey had high confidence limits & was a very warm year. 2. Combined with off-bottom component hydroacoustic estimates, 2004 biomass = 7.23 mmt, down 14 % from 2002 3. Year 2004 Models 6 scenarios of Age-Structure Models, Used Model 1 Age3+ Biomass for 2005 = 8.4 mmt, down from last year’s estimate 3. Recruitment 1999 & 2000 Year Classes both Above Average, but 3 year classes after that are below average.

  28. Next Pollock StockAleutian Islands Region New Information 2004 Survey Developed Age Structured

  29. Aleutian Islands Region 2004 versus 2002 Survey

  30. Aleutian Island RegionPollock Assessment 1. Survey Biomass (NRA Area) • 1991 137,000 • 1994 77,500 • 1997 97,500 • 2000 105,600 • 2002 175,000 • 2004 130,500 2. New age structured assessment 3. ABC from Tier 3 from Model = 43,200 mt

  31. Next Pollock StockBogoslof Region No New Information Using 2003 Survey Data by R/V Miller Freeman

  32. Bogoslof RegionPollock Stock Assessment(No Survey for 2004)

  33. Bogoslof Region Pollock ABCPlan Team versus SSC Procedures 1. Plan Team Method Uses Tier 5 ABC max permissible = Biomass x 0.75 M ABC = 29,700 mt 2. SSC Method Uses 2 mmt as Target Biomass and since 2003 Biomass was less than 10% of Target ABC was adjusted down by formula to 2,570 mt

  34. Pacific Cod AssessmentNotable Features 1. Year 2004 Surveys -- EBS Trawl Biomass = 597,000 mt, down 1% 2. Year 2004 Model -- Substantial revision of Last Year’s Model -- Estimated 2005 Age 3+ Biomass = 1.29 mmt, down 22% from last year -- 2000 year class is clearly above average; but next 2 year classes are below average

  35. BSAI Pacific Cod Average Recruits = 257 million fish 2000

  36. Nov 2004 AssessmentBSAI Flatfish Complex BiomassYear 2004 Total = 5.338 MMT(up 145,300 mt from last year)

  37. Yellowfin Sole AssessmentNotable Features 1. Survey Biomass -- Still relatively high biomass 2. Models -- Estimated 2004 Age 2+ Biomass = 1.56 mmt, up < 1% from last year -- biomass is still high; but declining as strong year classes pass out of the population & recent recruitments have been weaker -- Last 4 year classes (1996-1999 y. classes) have been substantially below average

  38. EBS Yellowfin Sole Ave 40 Yr Age 5 R = 1.4 Billion

  39. EBS Greenland Turbot Ave 30 Yr Age 1 R = 19 Millions

  40. EBS Arrowtooth Flounder Ave 25 Yr age 2 R = 303 Millions

  41. EBS Northern Rock Sole Ave 27Yr Age 4 R = 0.96 Billions

  42. EBS Flathead Sole Ave 25 Yr Age-3 R = 0.78 Billion

  43. EBS Alaska Plaice Ave 27 Yr Age 3 R = 1.14 Billions

  44. Other Flatfish AssessmentNotable Features 1. Species Composition -- 15 species from EBS, minus Alaska Plaice -- 5 species from Aleutians -- 95% of catch are starry flounder and rex sole 2. Biomass Estimates from Surveys only -- Rather Stable to Increasing Trend in recent years in both regions ABC Calculations -- Tier 5 where ABC = 0.75M * Biomass

  45. Bering Sea/Aleutians POP Ave 35 Yr Age 3 R = 63 Millions

  46. Other Red Rockfish Assessment(Species Split) 1. Original Species Splits -- POP -- Other Red Rockfish through Year 2000 (Northern/Sharpchin vs Shortraker/Rougheye) 2. New Splits -- Northern, Shortraker, Rougheye -- Sharpchin is merged into Other Rockfish category

  47. Northern Rockfish AssessmentNotable Features 1. 2nd Yr Model Assessment --Shift to Tier 3 from Tier 5 2. Biomass Trend Rather Stable • Good Recruitment in last 2 years • (94-95 Y.Classes)

  48. Bering Sea/Aleutians Northern Rockfish Ave 19 Yr Age 3 R = 36 Millions

  49. Shortraker and Rougheye AssessementsNotable Features In 2001 & 2002, these species were managed as a group 2. Now Observer Program & NMFS now can keep track of separate species and manage them separately 3. Tier 5 ABC = Model Estimated biomass of 2005 x 0.75M Species Biomass ABC Shortraker 26,4700 mt 596 mt Rougheye 11,9130 mt 223 mt

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