Scenario-Based Planning for the Impacts of Multimodal Transportation Policies

1. Scenario-Based Planning for the Impacts of Multimodal Transportation Policies James H. Lambert Matthew J. Schroeder October 14, 2008

2. Project Steering Committee • Mary Lynn Tischer, Director, Commonwealth of Virginia Multimodal Office • Wayne Ferguson, Virginia Transportation Research Council • Katherine Graham, Commonwealth of Virginia Multimodal Office • Mark McCaskill, Roanoke Valley Area Metropolitan Planning Organization • John Miller, Virginia Transportation Research Council • Kimberly Pryor Spence, Virginia Department of Transportation

3. Acknowledgments • Ralph Davis, Virginia Deputy Secretary of Transportation • Michael Garrett, Virginia Department of Transportation • Matthew Grimes, Virginia Transportation Research Council • Roger Howe, Virginia Transportation Research Council • Ben Mannell, Virginia Department of Transportation • Joost Santos, University of Virginia • Chad Tucker, Virginia Department of Transportation • Commonwealth’s Multimodal Transportation Office • VTrans2035 • Virginia Department of Transportation • Virginia Transportation Research Council

4. James Lambert, Principal Investigator Matthew Schroeder, Graduate Research Assistant Megan Kersh, Undergraduate Student Asad Saqib, Undergraduate Student Ward Williams, Undergraduate Student Project Team

5. My administration will begin immediately and work urgently to address the transportation dilemma that complicates our lives and threatens our prosperity. Together, let us find answers through a dialogue that is shaped not simply in terms of dollars and cents, but also by new solutions and common sense. A lack of coordination and planning has us stuck where we are today. -Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, Inaugural Address, 2006 Prologue

6. Summary of Accomplishments • Reviewed practices of scenario-based planning • Assessed the needs of regional transportation agencies in long-range planning • Developed a scenario-based analysis of the regional impacts of transportation policies • Designed an Excel workbook • Demonstrated the analysis in the Roanoke region with the twenty-one multimodal policies of VTrans2025

7. Presentation Outline • Introduction and motivation • Overview of approach • Background • Methodology • Demonstration of the workbook • Results and recommendations

8. Motivation • Scenario-based analysis is essential for the VTrans 2035 planning horizon • Virginia’s transportation system in 2008 • More than 60,000 miles of roadway • 67 public-use airports • 4 state-operated port terminals • Over 40 fixed route transit systems • Extensive freight and passenger rail • Bicycle and pedestrian amenities

9. VTrans 2035 Pierce R. Homer Secretary of Transportation • “…policy framework for an integrated multimodal transportation system that improves mobility and adds to the prosperity and the quality of life for Virginia” • Modal agencies • DOAV • VDRPT • VDOT • DMV • VPA Modal Agencies VTrans2035 Advisory Committee Analysis for scenario-based transportation planning

10. Overview of Approach • Study the impacts of multimodal transportation policies by region across Virginia • Understand how future scenarios and related assumptions matter to Virginia’s transportation system • Support coordination among regional and statewide transportation planners

11. Regional Planning Organizations Source: 2035 Virginia State Highway Plan 2008

12. Milestones • September 2007: Contact with Virginia’s Multimodal Office • November 2007: Virginia Transportation Conference, Roanoke, Virginia • December 2007: Roanoke Valley Alleghany MPO student paper competition • February 2008: Meeting with Dr. Tischer and Deputy Secretary Ralph Davis, Michael Garrett, Kimberly Pryor-Spence, Katherine Graham, VDOT, on economic input output analysis • February 2008: Meeting with Roanoke Valley MPO • March 2008: Meeting with Roanoke Valley MPO • May 2008: Briefing with Dr. Tischer and Katherine Graham • May 2008: Briefing with VTrans2035 Advisory Committee • June-September 2008: Survey of MPOs/PDCs • August 2008: Draft of final report submitted to the VTRC • September 2008: Second draft final report, 80% executive review

13. Project Website www.virginia.edu/crmes/multimodal2

14. Scenario-Based Planning • Use of scenarios to guide forecasts, projects, and policies • Advocated by the Federal Highway Administration • Several existing different approaches for methodology Source: FHWA, MWCOG, various sources

15. Sample of Literature • Cervero, R., & Aschauer, D. (1998). Economic impact analysis of transit investments:Guidebook for practitioners. • Cole, Sam (2001). Dare to Dream: Bringing Futures into Planning. Journal of the • Flyvbjerg, B, Holm M. K., Buhl, S. (2005). How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects? • Jarke, M., Bui, X.T. and Carroll, J.M. (1998). Scenario management: an interdisciplinary approach. • Wachs, M. (2001). Forecasting versus Envisioning: A New Window on the Future. • Bartholomew, K. (2005). Integrating Land Use Issues Into Transportation Planning: Scenario Planning. • Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission. (2005). Regional Analysis of What-If Transportation Scenarios.

16. Sample of Literature (cont.) • Federal Highway Administration. (2007). FHWA Scenario Planning Initiatives. • Federal Highway Administration. (n.d.). Scenario planning. • National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board and the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments. (2004). What If The Washington Region Grew Differently: The TPB Regional Mobility and Accessibility Scenario study. • Thomas Jefferson Planning District Commission. (n.d.). Jefferson Area Eastern Planning Initiative. • Watts, R. A., Poitras, C., Chamberlin, R. (2008). Citizen Participation and Frame Analysis in the Development of Scenarios for the VTrans Long Range Transportation Business Plan. • Virginia Department of Transportation. (2004). Virginia’s Statewide Multimodal Long-Range Transportation Plan: Phase 3 and Final Report to the General Assembly. • Zergas, C., Sussman, J., Conklin, C. (2004). Scenario Planning for Strategic Regional Transportation Planning.

17. Types of Scenarios • Spatial • Economic • Demographic • Number of households, in/out-migration • Other • Environmental • Availability of energy resources • National emergencies • Natural disasters • Workforce

18. Spatial Scenarios • Urban core repopulates • People go to urbanized areas to live and work, net population unchanged • Public transportation increases, clean transportation • Sprawl accelerates • Private automobile become main mode, vehicle miles traveled increases • Land consumption, energy usage increase, resource depletion • Information technology amenities grow • More workers telecommute so sprawl continues • Flexible work hours result in justifying transit service to certain areas • Region undivided • Shift job and household growth from west to east • Transit oriented development • More people live and work closer to transit Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

19. Economic Scenarios • Regional economy strengthens • Many workers move to region, sprawl continues • Global trade intensifies • Population decreases, increased use of automobiles • Energy cost rises • People relocate to more transit-oriented locations • Decreased use of automobile, air quality increases • Infrastructure investment expands • May draw people to area in the long run Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

20. Demographic Scenarios • In-migration increases • Total population increases, decreased use of auto • Out-migration increases • Population decreases, increased use of auto • More households • Increased household growth to balance forecast job growth Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

21. Other Scenarios • “Green” region emphasized • Use of public transit, bike, etc. • Crisis of national significance occurs/ homeland security tightened • Sprawl accelerates, shun public transportation • Airlines suffer, intermodal connection not emphasized • Carbon constrained future • Energy constrained future • Global price shocks and shortages Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

22. Methodology Components Performance Goals Transportation Policies Future Scenarios

23. VTrans Statewide Policies • Twenty-one policies of VTrans and Office of Multimodal Transportation Planning • Sample of policies • P.4 – Fund rail • P.6 – Strengthen planning and modeling • P.24 – Going green (specific to region) • P.23 – Improve bicycle and pedestrian paths (specific to region)

24. MPO Interest in VTrans Policies Source: VTrans survey 2008

25. Future Scenarios • Used nineteen scenarios based on studies throughout the U.S. • Focused on five scenarios for the region in our case study • S.2 – Sprawl accelerates • S.17 – Retirement • S.18 – Natural disaster • S.3 – IT amenities grow • S.19 – Decrease in air quality

26. MPO Interest in Future Scenarios Source: VTrans survey 2008

27. Transportation Goals • Six high level goals with 34 performance criteria • High level criteria: • C.1 – Safety and Security • C.2 – Preservation and Management • C.3 – Efficient Movement of Goods and People • C.4 – Economic Vitality • C.5 – Quality of Life • C.6 – Program Delivery Source: VTrans 2025

28. Excel Workbook - Introduction

29. Workbook – Policy Definitions

30. Workbook – Policy Ratings

31. Workbook – Scenario Definitions

32. Workbook – Goals Re-Weighting

33. Goals Re-Weighting Example

34. Workbook – Policy Comparison

35. Workbook – Policy Comparison (cont.)

36. Workbook – Policy Comparison (cont.)

37. Results are useful to group policies by performance Results are useful to group policies by upside or downside sensitivity to scenarios Decision making by VTrans and MPOs is informed by choices of scenarios, policies, and performance criteria Interpretation of Results

38. Summary of Accomplishments • Reviewed practices of scenario-based planning • Assessed the needs of regional transportation agencies in long-range planning • Developed a scenario-based analysis of the regional impacts of transportation policies • Designed an Excel workbook • Demonstrated the analysis in the Roanoke region with the twenty-one multimodal policies of VTrans2025

39. Recommendations • Deploy Excel workbook for survey of additional regional organizations • Collate the results in support of VTrans2035, comparing the regional impacts of VTrans policies • Provide key input to upcoming summit of transportation thought and vision leaders in Charlottesville, November 2008

40. Recommendations (cont.) • Costs/resources of deployment • Time to interact by telephone, email, and Excel workbook with regional planners • Time to compile and present comparison comparing regional results • Maintenance of website with Excel workbook • Benefits • Improved coordination of VTrans2035 and the regional planning organizations • Policies that are robust to disruptive scenarios and appropriate to Virginia regions

41. Next Steps • Study VTrans2035 multimodal corridors • Find the sensitivity of the corridors to VTrans “issues” • Study the sensitivity of VTrans and other statewide policies to future scenarios of climate change • Sea-level rise • Frequencies of storms, flood, drought • Intensities of storms, flood, drought • Demographic/socioeconomic climate impacts

42. RVAMPO Student Paper Award to UVa/VTRC Student Team