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Global Outlook: Supply & Demand for Wood Products

This publication provides an analysis of the global supply and demand for wood products, including production, consumption, trade, and factors affecting models and markets. It also includes specific regional and sectoral analysis.

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Global Outlook: Supply & Demand for Wood Products

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  1. Global Outlook: Supply & Demand for Wood Products Ed Pepke, Ph.D. Forest Products Marketing Specialist Food and Agricultural Organization UN Economic Commission for Europe Geneva, Switzerland

  2. Outline • Forest products markets • Production, consumption & trade • Global • Regional • Sectoral • Forest resources • Growing the market

  3. Sources • UNECE/FAO TIMBER database on forest products statistics • UNECE/FAO Temperate & Boreal Forest Resources Assessment • FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study • FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment • FAOSTAT Forestry Database website • UNECE/FAO Timber Bulletin “Forest products annual market analysis, 2002-2005 • UNECE Timber Committee market forecasts

  4. Forest products markets

  5. World production of roundwood,1961-2003 Source: FAOSTAT

  6. Regional production of industrial roundwood, 1961-2010 Source: FAOSTAT and FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

  7. Regional trade, all primary forest products, 2002 Source: FAOSTAT

  8. N. American trade, all primary forest products, 1993-2002

  9. Sectoral analysis: Lumber

  10. N. American softwood lumber market, 1995-2004 Source:UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2003

  11. N. American softwood lumber trade, 1995-2004 Source:UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2003

  12. N. American hardwood lumber market, 1995-2004 Source:UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2003

  13. N. American hardwood lumber trade, 1995-2004 Source:UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2003

  14. American lumber consumption & production, 1980-2010 Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

  15. American lumber trade, 1980-2010 Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

  16. Factors affecting models and markets • Gross domestic product (GDP) • Population • Costs and prices (labor, raw material, etc.) • Technological change • Government policies • Socio-economic trends Global Forest Products Consumption, Production, Trade and Prices: Global Forest Products Model Projections to 2010 By Zhu, S; Tomberlin, D; Buongiorno, J. Published by FAO, 1998

  17. European softwood lumber market, 1995-2004 Source:UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2003

  18. European softwood lumber trade, 1995-2004 Source:UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2003

  19. European hardwood lumber market, 1995-2004 Source:UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004

  20. European hardwood lumber trade, 1995-2004 Source:UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004

  21. Europe lumber consumption & production outlook, 1980-2010 Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

  22. Europe lumber trade outlook, 1980-2010 Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

  23. Russian softwood lumber market, 1992-2004 Source:UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2003

  24. Asia lumber production & consumption outlook, 1980-2010 Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

  25. Asia lumber trade outlook,1980-2010 Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

  26. An asideJapanese and Korean tariffs

  27. Japanese and Korean tariffs • In context of WTO trade negotiations, will not support elimination of wood tariffs • Forest product tariffs protect the domestic industry interest • Tariffs protect the environment, preserve limited natural forest resources and maintain minimum harvest levels for forest management • Forestry Agencies of both governments will continue this bilateral forum to protect common trade interests in the forest products sector. Source:Global Agriculture Information Network, January 2004.

  28. Sectoral analysis: Panels

  29. North America structural production, 1995-2004 Source:UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2003

  30. European OSB market, 1995-2004 Source:UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004

  31. America panel consumption & production outlook, 1980-2010 Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

  32. America panel trade outlook,1980-2010 Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

  33. Europe panel consumption & production outlook, 1980-2010 Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

  34. Europe panel trade outlook,1980-2010 Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

  35. Asia panel consumption & production outlook, 1980-2010 Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

  36. Asia panel trade outlook, 1980-2010 Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

  37. An aside on theChinese market

  38. China’s expanding trade • Total export value 2003: $390 billion, +36% • Total import value 2003: 371 billion, +39% • Trade surplus: $20 billion • China & Japan 2003 trade: $120 billion, +31% • China & US 2003 trade: $114 billion, +29% • China & Europe 2003 trade: $112 billion, +43% • “Sudden growth” of primary product imports: timber, steel, oil, soybeans Source: “China Forest Products Market Information”, December 2003

  39. Sino-US furniture trade: US side • Chinese share of US market increasing rapidly • Chinese furniture exports to US • 2000: $1.7 billion • 2002: $2.9 billion • Anti-dumping investigation requested by 28 American furniture manufacturers in November 2003 • US furniture industry earnings down 70% • US furniture workforce down 34,000 Source: “China Forest Products Market Information”, December 2003

  40. Sino-US furniture trade: Chinese side • 60% of China’s furniture exports are “American” furniture • Produced by US-owned companies • US wood • US technology and styles • Advantage for US manufacturers is low manufacturing costs • Labor • Energy • Taxes Source: “China Forest Products Market Information”, December 2003

  41. China’s booming timber imports • Housing construction • Only minority wood-based • Green and healthy communities • Affordable • Renovation market for houses and municipal • Infrastructure development • Interior woodwork and furnishings • Olympic-related construction (2008 Beijing) Source: “China Forest Products Market Information”, December 2003

  42. Sectoral analysis: Paper

  43. N. America paper & paperboard consumption & production outlook, 1980-2010 Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

  44. N. America paper & paperboard trade outlook, 1980-2010 Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

  45. European paper & paperboard consumption & production outlook, 1980-2010 Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

  46. Europe paper & paperboard trade outlook, 1980-2010 Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

  47. Asia paper & paperboard consumption & production outlook, 1980-2010 Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

  48. Asia paper & paperboard trade outlook, 1980-2010 Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

  49. Summary: Key market issues (1 of 2) • Illegal logging and trade of illegally-sourced wood • Certification of sustainable forest management, markets for certified forest products • Policies for sound use of wood, wood promo • Industrial development policies and structural oversupply Source: Forest Products Annual Market Analysis, 2002-2004

  50. Summary: Key market issues (2 of 2) • Climate change policy • Wood energy promotion policies • Trade policy, tariff and non-tariff barriers Source: Forest Products Annual Market Analysis, 2002-2004

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