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Winter Experience 05/06 and Outlook 06/07

Winter Experience 05/06 and Outlook 06/07 Andrew Ryan Scope Winter 2005/06 Experience Weather Demand Plant Availability Supply Build-up Distillate use Winter 2006/07 Outlook Plant Margin BMRS Demand BMRS Plant Availability Winter Outlook 06/07 Timetable

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Winter Experience 05/06 and Outlook 06/07

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  1. Winter Experience 05/06 and Outlook 06/07 Andrew Ryan

  2. Scope • Winter 2005/06 Experience • Weather • Demand • Plant Availability • Supply Build-up • Distillate use • Winter 2006/07 Outlook • Plant Margin • BMRS Demand • BMRS Plant Availability • Winter Outlook 06/07 Timetable

  3. Winter 05/06: European Temperatures European Weather Covering the three months Dec 2005-Feb 2006, the map below shows temperature anomalies across Europe. The colours clearly show the extent of the colder conditions across large parts of western Europe – a pattern consistent with the original Met Office winter forecast. Source: UK Met Office

  4. Winter 05/06: UK Temperatures UK Temperatures During mild winters, there tends to be a high frequency of south-westerly winds, bringing relatively warm air to all parts of the UK. The signal for this year, even as far back as last summer, was for a 'blocked' pattern of weather to predominate over Europe, with a higher frequency of easterly winds for the UK. This has certainly been the case, but the extreme cold that has been affecting central Europe has really only influenced the temperature across the south of the country. Scotland and Northern Ireland had, until recently, escaped. Source: UK Met Office

  5. Winter 05/06: GB close to average temperature Source UK Met Office. Winter is defined as 01/12/05 - 28/02/06

  6. Winter 05/06: UK Precipitation UK Precipitation The forecast gave indications the winter would be drier than normal. The precipitation amounts for the winter period (1 Dec- 28 Feb) reflect this, with the UK receiving 196.7 mm, more than 40% less than the long-term average. Source: UK Met Office

  7. Winter 05/06: Winter Demand Out-turn Note: Demand includes Station Load and Exports

  8. Winter 05/06: Peak ACS Demands • Operational View • 2005/6 Outturn: 60.3 GW • Outturn Corrected to ACS weather conditions: 61.5 GW • 2006/7 ACS Forecast: 62.1 GW (1% growth) • 1.0 GW of demand management assumed to continue • Seven Year Statement (SYS) View • 2005/06 outturn 62.8 GW • SYS View “adds back-in” 1.0 GW of demand management • and 0.3 GW of non National Grid metered generation • 2006/7 ACS Forecast: 63.7 GW (DNOs’ growth forecast of 1.5%) • 2006/7 ACS Forecast: 63.1 GW (excluding 0.6 GW of station load)

  9. Winter 05/06: Triads • Information published on National Grid Web site 28/03/06 http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Charges/usefulinfo/ • Triads calculated on Settlements off-take metering at GSP level and so can be different dates to those implied by Outturn Demand figures published on BMRS (INDO), which are generation based and provisional • No Triad in December. First time for more than 30 years

  10. Winter 05/06: Triads The above data was used by National Grid to calculate the Triad for 2005/6 in accordance with the Statement of Use of System Charging Methodology (see chapter 4) It is based on the latest settlement data available when the triad was calculated in March 2005 (as illustrated by the run type SF - Settlement Final, R1 - Reconciliation 1 and R2 - Reconciliation 2).

  11. Winter 05/06: Plant Availability • Plant availability generally good over the winter, : • One AGR was on outage mid-Nov to mid-Mar • One large CCGT unit has been unavailable for most of the winter • There was evidence of some CCGT outage over-runs • 1 GW of coal plant was unavailable in Jan and Feb • No significant technical problems during the cold weather • Evidence of increasing gas-power interaction

  12. Winter 05/06: Plant Availability • Mothballed Plant: • At the start of the winter: • 0.8 GW of plant was unavailable with TEC • 0.6 GW of plant was unavailable without TEC • 0.9 GW of plant was available without TEC • All this plant returned over the course of the winter, taking advantage of the range of Short Term Access products offered by National Grid

  13. Winter 05/06: Electricity Generated by Fuel Type

  14. Winter 05/06: Distillate use v Gas Prices

  15. Winter Outlook: 2006/07

  16. Winter 06/07: 21% Margin (SYS) • Recently published update to 2005 SYS • Availability (TEC based): 76.1 GW • Demand Forecast: 63.1 GW, excluding 0.6 GW of station load • Margin is 21%

  17. Winter 06/07: BMRS View • ACS Demand Forecast: 62.1 GW • Operational view assumes 1.0 GW of demand management • Also excludes 0.3 GW of non-metered generation • But includes 0.6 GW of station load • Demand forecasts are being analysed, update in May 2006 • Availability (Operational View) : 74.7 GW • excludes 1.1 GW of those without TEC who we believe could readily return for this winter • excludes 0.7 GW with TEC but are not declaring themselves available • 0.9 GW of indicated plant closures in late December 2006 • Long Term mothballed is 1.1 GW

  18. Winter 06/07: Notified Generation Availability

  19. Winter 06/07: Timetable • May 06 Publication of Winter Consultation Report • late May Ofgem Seminars • Early summer Industry feedback on Winter Consultation • Jul 06 External seminars on consultation feedback • Sep 06 Publication of Winter Consultation Report • Sep 06 Ofgem Seminar

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