1 / 21

Trade Overview Brett Stuart Trade Analyst, USMEF Denver

USMEF Beef Committee. Trade Overview Brett Stuart Trade Analyst, USMEF Denver. Topics. Forecasts U.S. exports Global trade Competitive Situation Outlook. BSE. U.S. Beef Export Forecasts. Unknowns: Ability to supply Japan under new agreement When and how all bans will be lifted

cruz
Download Presentation

Trade Overview Brett Stuart Trade Analyst, USMEF Denver

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. USMEF Beef Committee Trade Overview Brett Stuart Trade Analyst, USMEF Denver

  2. Topics • Forecasts • U.S. exports • Global trade • Competitive Situation • Outlook

  3. BSE

  4. U.S. Beef Export Forecasts Unknowns: • Ability to supply Japan under new agreement • When and how all bans will be lifted • Product restrictions (bone in vs. boneless) • Extent of consumer damage – future consumption • Economic growth / exchange rates Knowns: • Australia / N.Z. production and prices • U.S. production and prices • Tariff structure • Domestic production

  5. U.S. Beef/BVM Export Forecasts USMEF forecasts Source: USDA, USMEF Estimates

  6. 2004 Export Forecasts(% change from prior year)

  7. 2005 Export Forecasts(% change from prior year)

  8. 2005 Global Estimates • Domestic Consumption: +1% • China +6%, or 427,000 mt • Brazil +4%, or 250,000 mt • Beef Imports: +4% • South Korea +38% or 75,000 mt • Mexico +19% or 50,000 mt • S. Africa +38% or 6,000 mt Source: USDA Estimates, cwe

  9. Where is the Growth in 2005 U.S. Beef Exports? (486,800 mt, or +196%) Source: USMEF Forecasts

  10. Competitive Situation

  11. Australia • Return to more favorable weather conditions (except NSW) • Heifer retention is occurring • 2004 feedyard capacity ~ 900,000 head • 711,000 on feed, June 2004 • Capacity was unchanged during 2004 • 56% of cattle on feed are destined for Japan, up from 43% in 2003

  12. Brazil • Strong economic growth • Favorable returns are driving new industry investment • Beef production to increase 5% in 2005 • Aggressive marketing • Russia, the #1 market in 2004, closed to Brazil in September due to FMD

  13. Global Marketing

  14. Global Marketing

  15. Source: USDA, USMEF Estimates

  16. Source: USDA

  17. EU Beef • Return to more normal situation after market disruptions due to animal diseases (BSE crisis, FMD, avian flu) • EU-25 beef consumption higher than production in 2003 for the first time in 20 years (and throughout the forecast period) • 10 accession countries comprise 11% of EU-25 beef production

  18. Outlook

  19. World Economic Growth Sources: Oxford Economic Forecasting; International Financial Statistics, IMF

  20. Factors to watch in 2005 • Asian access • Japanese consumer reaction • Exchange rates • U.S. beef supplies and prices • U.S. surveillance testing

  21. Questions? Brett Stuart Trade Analyst 303-623-6328 bstuart@usmef.org Visit www.usmef.org

More Related