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USMEF Pork & Allied Industries & NPB Trade Committee

USMEF Pork & Allied Industries & NPB Trade Committee . Erin Daley October 30, 2007. U.S. Pork Exports Historic & USMEF Forecast . 2014 Share of Exports. 4%. 8%. 4%. 10%. 11%. 26%. 27%. 2007 F: -2.4%, 1.23 MMT 2008 F: +2%- access issues; Korea 2009-2014: 4.5-5% growth.

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USMEF Pork & Allied Industries & NPB Trade Committee

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  1. USMEF Pork & Allied Industries & NPB Trade Committee Erin Daley October 30, 2007

  2. U.S. Pork Exports Historic & USMEF Forecast 2014 Share of Exports 4% 8% 4% 10% 11% 26% 27% 2007 F: -2.4%, 1.23 MMT 2008 F: +2%- access issues; Korea 2009-2014: 4.5-5% growth Source: USDA/USMEF forecast; 1,000 MT

  3. Key Pork Exporters- Historic & Outlook (Thousand MT) Source: OECD/FAO Outlook, 2007, carcass weight equivalent

  4. World Pork Production 2007 Est. 1996 China’s pork production is roughly 5.5 times larger than U.S. production and number slaughtered is 6.8 times larger Sow beginning stocks are over 8 times larger than U.S. A 2% decrease in China’s production nearly = Japan’s total production; 1 MMT CWE Source: USDA, USMEF

  5. Pork Consumption Growth 1996 2007 Est. China: 31 MMT U.S.: 7.6 MMT World: 70 MMT China: nearing 54 MMT +74% U.S.: 8.7 MMT +14% World: 100.8 MMT +44% Source: USDA and USMEF estimates

  6. Brazil Jan-Sept. Pork Exports +18% Russia: FMD restrictions but benefit from preferential duty and shifting EU quotas Annual Source: Global Trade Atlas, metric tons

  7. Denmark’s Pork Exports Jan-July -6% Feed Prices; EU regulations; Japan gate price Source: Global Trade Atlas, metric tons

  8. Canada’s Pork Exports Jan-Aug -3% Canadian labeling MCOOL Feed Prices Exports to US thru 10/29/2007 Feeder hogs: +7%; 4.5 million head Slaughter hogs: +20%; 1.65 million head Source: Global Trade Atlas, metric tons

  9. Pork Exports to Mexico Jan-Aug Slaughter hog exports to Mexico through 10/29/2007: -44%; 80,688 head Source: Global Trade Atlas, metric tons

  10. Japan’s Pork Imports Jan-Aug +4.5% Market Share 2007 U.S.: 37% Canada: 20% Denmark: 18% Source: Global Trade Atlas, metric tons

  11. Korea’s Pork Imports Jan-Aug +13% Market Share 2007 EU-25: 43% U.S.: 26% Canada: 18% Chile: 12% Source: Global Trade Atlas, metric tons

  12. Russia’s Pork Imports Jan-June Market Share 2007 EU-25: 40% Brazil: 39% U.S.: 11% Canada: 10% Source: Global Trade Atlas, metric tons

  13. Australia’s Pork Imports Jan-Aug +48% Market Share 2007 Canada: 36% EU-25: 33% U.S.: 30% Source: Global Trade Atlas, metric tons

  14. China Pork Situation 6.8 MMT deficit Source: USDA and USMEF est.; 1,000 MT CWE and 1,000 head (sows)

  15. January-July Pork Exports to China +111% Source: Global Trade Atlas, USMEF; metric tons; includes variety meats

  16. Jan-July Pork Exports to Hong Kong (excl. China’s exports) + 56% Source: Global Trade Atlas, USMEF; metric tons; includes variety meats

  17. Thank You! For More Information: edaley@usmef.org www.usmef.org

  18. Pork Exports to China Source: Global Trade Atlas, metric tons; includes variety meats

  19. Pork Exports to Hong Kong (excluding China’s exports) Source: Global Trade Atlas, metric tons; includes variety meats

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