English for Business IIb. Resources overview (completion, 3.10.2011)

1. English for BusinessIIb. Resources overview(completion, 3.10.2011) Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College

2. From March 3 • Overview of history of growth of energy use • Relative roles of different types of energy • Overview of attributes of energy types

3. For today • EROEI • Resource problems • Limitations on exhaustibles • Climate change • Ecosystem condition

4. EROEI • Energy Return On Energy Invested • Energy contained in a source ready to be used, divided by energy expended to get it there • One measure of the physical cost of an energy source • Interaction between physical properties and technology

5. Resource problems • Limitations of exhaustibles • Climate change • Stressed ecosystems

6. “Peak Oil” • At some point, annual oil production must reach a peak • That’s implicit in exhaustible resource • Are we there yet? • Depends on your definition

7. Liquid fuels • Oil itself is diverse in quality and accessibility • There are similar hydrocarbons • Condensate, Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) • There are non-petroleum-derived liquids • Ethanol, biodiesel • “Liquids” have maybe plateaued, clearly not peaked

8. http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7522

9. Fig 2. World production of “all liquids.” Image from "Oilwatch Monthly" http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7241

10. Oil, not liquids • If you focus on oil, then we haven’t yet made it back to level of July 2008

11. Fig 1. World production of conventional oil. Image from "Oilwatch Monthly" http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7241

12. Oil, not liquids • If you focus on oil, then we haven’t yet made it back to level of July 2008 • Ethanol has lower energy per volume than oil • So expanding “liquids” by replacing oil with ethanol may not mean increasing available energy • Ethanol and biodiesel have lower EROEI than oil • So more of what we have is going to keep extracting energy

13. Conventional oil, not just oil • Conventional oil: • On-shore or shallow water (not deep) • Liquid (not tar or shale) • Relatively sweet (not too much sulfur) • As you violate these conditions, costs go up • Monetary, but also environmental damage and CO2 per unit energy

14. http://planetforlife.com/oilcrisis/oilsituation.html

15. Fossil alternatives to oil • Coal: outlier predictions that a peak is near, but consensus is for a large supply • Gas: looked scarce until improvement of shale technology • Maybe abundant, but EROEI is weaker, and bigger concerns about water pollution • Deepwater oil, tar sands, oil shales • Total quantities 2x, 3x “conventional” oil

16. Peak cheap oil • We probably have enough fossil fuel to keep current rate of expansion for a few more decades • But 20th century growth happened with oil that was physically cheap • How much do our economies depend on that? • Rather than on imperfect substitutes

17. The climate wrench • Climate change is a different problem: • Even if we have lots of fossil fuel, we don’t want to use much of it • What are the alternatives?

18. Wind again • In theory, can replace coal-fired electricity • Currently more expensive than coal • Though coal doesn’t have to pay for the costs it imposes through climate impact • Intermittency/storage problem is big • Norway preparing to offer “balancing services” • Turn hydroelectric on/off as needed to complement wind elsewhere in Europe • Need high capacity cables – and water! • http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7404

19. Desert solar • “Within six hours, deserts receive more energy from the sun than humankind consumes in a year.” • Dr. Gerhard Knies, http://www.desertec.org/en • That’s true, but it’s dispersed • Concentrating it, upgrading to industrial quality, is inherently expensive • Interesting side benefits • Use seawater for cooling, produce fresh water

20. Nukes to the rescue • A better fit for “business as usual” (BAU) • Predictable, controllable, base-load power • But • How quickly can you build out? • How worried are you about operational accidents? • How serious do you think the waste/decommissioning problem is? • How much uranium is there? • This is greatly extended if you use breeder reactors

21. Biofuels • Implications of large-scale replacement • EROEI • Carbon emissions

22. Large-scale biofuels • Food vs. fuel • 41% of U.S. maize crop currently going to ethanol (=15% of global maize) • http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40317079/ns/us_news-environment/ • But even more goes to animal feed • Europe might make ½ its gasoline if it stopped feeding animals (FAOStat + author’s calculations) • Global capacity? • Replacing world diesel capacity with palm oil would take 12x global palm-oil acreage (Data from FAOStat + author’s calculations)

23. Low EROEI • Biofuels have low EROEI • Corn ethanol ~1.2 (claims of ~0.8) • Some of that is electricity  an expensive way of turning coal into liquid fuel • Biodiesel as high as ~4 • Sugar-cane ethanol ~6 • Oil is currently ~20  Biofuels won’t drive as vibrant an economy

24. Downloaded 1/20/2010 from http://www.esf.edu/EFB/hall/

26. Basic limitations • Low EROEI, low quantity is a problem for many alternatives to fossil fuels • Not just a biofuel problem

27. CO2 emissions Biofuels theoretically carbon-neutral

28. CO2 reduction Atmosphere Carbon

29. CO2 emissions • Biofuels theoretically carbon-neutral • Burning the fuel releases CO2

30. CO2 reduction Atmosphere

31. CO2 emissions • Biofuels theoretically carbon-neutral • Burning the fuel releases CO2 • But growing the plant pulled it from the air • But fossil fuel is burned in growing, processing • Converting forest land to oil palm releases huge amounts of CO2 • May outweigh CO2 reduction from replacing petroleum • http://www.geog.le.ac.uk/carbopeat/press/pr2.html

32. Biomass in general • At small scale, probably not problematic • But we’re not talking small scale

34. Biomass in general • At small scale, probably not problematic • But we’re not talking small scale • Global fossil fuel use is >1.5x total human appropriation of net primary production (NPP)

36. Biomass in general • At small scale, probably not problematic • But we’re not talking small scale • Global fossil fuel use is >1.5x total human appropriation of net primary production (NPP) • We’re taking 14-26% of NPP already • Most of that is not for energy • And it’s already causing 6th Extinction • Don’t know how much we can take without accelerating collapse

37. Responses I: Efficiency • Better insulation, better engines, etc. • Increased functionality with no increase in energy use • But we need to reduce from current levels • And watch out for Jeavons’ paradox • Smaller cars, smaller houses • This shades into …

38. Responses II: Doing with less • Living closer to work and services • Rearranging settlement patterns to allow less driving (less car-dependence) • More an issue in North America • But getting worse here • Diet changes • Mainly reduction in meat and animal products

39. Responses III: Price signals • Big role for price signals in inducing efficiency and conservation • No judgment about choosing a distant vacation or a big car • But you’re going to have to be very rich, or give up a lot of other consumption to get those things • At what point does this shade into slower GDP growth, or GDP decline?

40. Responses IV: Tech leap • Big improvement in algal biofuel? • Cheaper photovoltaic cells? • Cheaper electricity storage? • ??? • Long-term economic growth has been associated with use of larger gradients • Now talking about finessing smaller gradients • May be qualitatively different from experience

41. Dematerialization • The digital world promises production of wealth without using much stuff • A nice idea, but people who get rich there tend to buy physical things • Rich countries have only slightly “decoupled” GDP growth from increased resource use • Some of that is in the ability to import from Asia, where energy use is still rising quickly • Metabolic vision of economy suggests that high info flow depends on large energy flow

42. Conclusion? • No crystal ball • Tech breakthroughs can happen • But thermodynamics suggest they’ll be hard • Climatologists could be wrong about climate change • But the data keep coming in showing more effect than IPCC predicted • Yes, they were wrong, but that doesn’t help  Fasten your seatbelts