T.M.Jayasekera B Sc. Eng, C Eng, MBA,FIE,FIM,FCIWEM,MICE,MSLIM,MSLITAD National Consultant UNDP TA on Strengthening Pl

1. Results Based Monitoring and Evaluation System T.M.Jayasekera B Sc. Eng, C Eng, MBA,FIE,FIM,FCIWEM,MICE,MSLIM,MSLITAD National Consultant UNDP TA on Strengthening Plan Implementation Capability Ministry of Plan Implementation .

2. Challenges Confronting Society in 21st Century Development Challenges Social Challenges Poverty, Hunger, Mal-nutrition, Child Mortality, Maternal Mortality, Degrading Environment Braking families increasing crimes Drug abuse, child and spouse abuse, teenage pregnancy Alternatives Programmes designed to attack the problems What is Working Well What is Working Poorly Scarce Resource – Tough Choices :- Cancel some programmes to continue others What is less effective What is more effective Programmes Evaluation

3. Traditional Project Monitoring System to speed-up Implementation • Implementation Failures • Low Foreign Aid Disbursement Disbursement Ratio • Sri Lanka 13.12% (Target 20%) • China 29.82% • Thailand 37.14% • Vietnam 17.87% (ADB 2004) • Sick Projects/Problems Projects • Time Overrun • Loan Cancellations • Monitorable Work Plan with Financial / Physical target Monitor Financial and Physical Progress (formats) Identify short falls / Gaps – issues – Remedial Action. Early warning Signal – Alerts M&E Mechanism – LM Meetings – Back to Office Report – PMC • Foreign Aid Utilization – 2003 – 14% 2004 – 20%

4. Implementation Progress alone not sufficient:Project Failures and Declining “Results” ADB Projects 2004

5. Concept of RBME • Tracks performance of a projects based on • Implementation Progress (Physical / financial) • Development Objectives (Benefits / effects and Impacts) • Implementation Progress may not necessarily lead to satisfactory achievement of development objectives • Results Management Culture Impact Input Outputs Effect

6. The Logical Framework LFA is an analytical tool forobjective oriented project planning and managementincluding Monitoring and Evaluation. It is a way of structuring the main elements of a project, highlighting logical linkages between inputs, planned activities and expected results. In the development process • If the inputs are available then activities will take place. • If activities take place then the outputs would be produced. • If the outputs are produced then the purpose will be achieved. • If purpose is achieved, it will contribute to the fulfillment of goal. Output Purpose Input Activities Goal

7. Project Logic Implementation Results Input Activities Outputs Purpose Goal • Men • Maternal • Money • Management • Rehabilitation of Tanks, canals, Sluice gates and distribution channels • Functional Irrigation Scheme • Increased Acreage • Cropping Intensify • Access to water • Increased Production • Increased Employment • Improved Living standard

8. Programme Theory • The model describes as to how these activities could conceivably achieve the stated goals and objectives (Results Chain) • A specification of what must be done to achieve the desired goals. • Programme model conveys the linkages between program goals and objectives and progrmme action. i.e. establishes the link between the problem and the programme.

9. Programme Theory Water Supply Project Input Activities Outputs Outcome Impacts • Water pipes • Taps • Advice etc. • Installation of pipes. • training, involving women • community management • 20 water taps installed; • 10000 safe gallons p.a. • Water borne diseases reduced • Less diarrhea • More time available to women • Improved living conditions to women • Improved health situation

10. Log Frame Matrix Introduction The Log Frame provides a one-page summary of: WHY a project is carried out WHATthe project is expected to achieve HOW the project is going to achieve these results WHICH external factors are crucial for the success of the project HOWwe can assess the success of the project WHEREwe find the data required to assess the success of the project WHATthe project will cost

11. THE LOGICAL FRAMEWORK - Tool for better Project Cycle Management IDENTIFICATION Goal Purpose DESIGN/ APPRAISAL EVALUATION LOG FRAME Goal Purpose Outputs Activities IMPLEMENTATION AND MONITORING Outputs Activities

12. Project Planning Matrix / Logical Framework Matrix • Note 1 : Emphasis on developing performance indicators • Note 2 : The Project Management should be able to guarantee the project outputs. The immediate objective is beyond their direct control

13. Definition and Terminology Input - Resources (Men, Material, Money, Management) Output - Physical accomplishment that the project management should be able to guarantee. Purpose - The immediate objective or effect which is expected to be achieved as the result of the project Goal - The ultimate (long term) overall objective of the project OVI - Set of criteria's, indicators or measures to verify achievement of objectives at different levels. This includes direct or proxy (indirect) indicators. Objectively verifiable means, different independent observers would come to the same conclusion as to the status of achievement.

14. LFA Contd.. MOV - The means, methods and sources which permit OVI to be measured in precise term. Assumption- These are important events, conditions decisions that must exist if the project is to succeed but which are outside the direct control of the project management. These are linked to different levels in the project planning matrix

15. Log Frame : Vertical Logic

16. Log Frame : Horizontal Logic

17. Basic Structure a. Vertical Logic • Horizontal Logic Vertical Logic This identifies what project intends to do, clarifies the logical linkages between means and ends, and specifies uncertainties concerning the project. The elements of vertical logic are 1. Hierarchy of project objectives: Input, output and purpose are specific to project, while higher level-Goal-relates the project to the programme of which project is a part 2. Casual linkages within the hierarchy: Means-end relationship. IF inputs are provided THEN output will be produced……..

18. Important Assumptions: - Assumption at each level are linked to different levels in the LFM. “IF the planed outputs are proceed and IF the important assumptions are valid THEN the project purpose will be achieved” - Assumptions are weighted according to importance and probability. • The notion of hypothesis: - Success at each lower level of vertical logic does not guarantee success at ultimate Goal level.

19. THE LOGICAL FRAMEWORKImportant Assumptions:Describe the external risks to the project Key points: • Both the criticality and probability of assumptions should be assessed. • Risks should, as far as possible be ‘internalized’ by redesigning the project. This leads to stronger projects.

20. The Logical Framework CAUSE AND EFFECT RELATIONSHIPS 4 1 Goal Purpose Assumptions Assumptions . Outputs . Activities . Assumptions .

21. Assessment of Assumptions 1st Questions: “Is the assumption important Don’t include this one No Yes 2nd Question: “How likely will it occur” Almost certain Don’t include this one either Put this assumption into your Project Planning Matrix Project Management must • monitor it and • if possible influence it Quite likely Not likely 3rd Questions: “Can the project be re-designed” Killer assumption! Warn decision makers! Stop! No Yes Redesign project! Plan activities to influence assumptions

22. Horizontal Logic “ The objective of the horizontal logic is the MEASUREMENT of the resources and results of a project, through OVI and MOV” (CIDA) 1. Objectively Verifiable Indicator - Measures (direct or Indirect) to verify to what extent Input, Output, Purpose and Goal is achieved. (Input indicators, Output indicators, Purpose indicators, Goal indicators) - Measurement can be • Quantitative (e.g. Km of road rehabilitation) • Qualitative (e.g. Farmers cooperative functioning effectively) • Behavioral (e.g Increased use of sanitary facilities) Qualitative indicators should be made measurable.

23. - Direct indicators should be supplemented by indirect (proxy) indicators (e.g. indirect wealth indicator may be quality of house construction materials, ownership of bicycles/radio) - Properties of Goal indicator • Specific • Measurable • Achievable • Realistic • Time-bound 2. Means of Verification (MOV)

24. Secondary Education Improvement Project • Improved literacy rate • Employable workforce - Absorption rate by Industries Goal (Impact) Results • Increased enrolment rate • Less Dropout rate • Improved quality of teaching – students pass rate Purpose (Effect) • No of teachers trained • No of text books supplied • Curriculum Development – No of modules completed • No. of school buildings constructed • Facilities (computers, drinking water, toilets, electricity) Outputs . Implementation Inputs . • Funds spent

25. Key Performance Indicators • Qualities • S – Specific • M – Measurable • A – Achievable • R – Realistic • T – Time bound • Setting KPIs Baseline Indicator Level Desired Level of Improvement (Intervention) Target Performance Benchmark =

26. Issues and Challenges • LFA be incorporated into design stage of the Project • Unintended effects and impacts not covered in the LFA • Highly optimistic performance target setting is dangerous as it would finally lead to rating of a good project as a failure • Indicators developed may necessitate the conduct of field surveys which are time consuming and costly.

27. Logical Framework Analysis

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