1 / 26

My thoughts in the latest

My thoughts in the latest. Gore (2006) “An inconvenient truth: The planetary emergency of global warming and what we can do about it”. 薄い大気： ( 鉛直 ) / ( 水平 ) ～ 10km/10000km = 0.001. The atmosphere is not well mixed.

curry
Download Presentation

My thoughts in the latest

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. My thoughtsin the latest

  2. Gore (2006) “An inconvenient truth: The planetary emergency of global warming and what we can do about it” 薄い大気： (鉛直) / (水平) ～ 10km/10000km = 0.001

  3. The atmosphere is not well mixed • All atmospheric constituents with finite life times are transported from their source regions to sink regions • Transport in large scales is done by coherent motions associated with lots of meteorological phenomena • Vertical stratification due to gravity causes anisotropic transport • Chemical reactions and phase transitions are done in molecular scales • Turbulent mixing is important to fill the scale gap

  4. ～気温 ～雪氷 • 過去６５０,０００年では ? [x1000 year] IPCC (2007; Fig. 6.3)

  5. Correlations in time-series do not tell causality • Both detection (observational facts) and attribution (scientific understandings) are important • Time variations take place in an open Earth system (F-D sys.) • Time variation consists of autonomous internal variations and response variations to external forcings • There are multiple time scales of periodic forcings from diurnal cycle, …. to Milanković • Time scale is basically determined by momentum, thermal, or chemical inertia of the corresponding subsystem

  6. Return to the agenda

  7. 17th Session of WCRP/SPARC SSG 26-30 October 2009 Kyoto Univ., Japan 3.3 Stratosphere-Troposphere Dynamical Coupling Shigeo Yoden Kyoto Univ.

  8. 1. A Japanese research project for FY2008 - 2011 Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) “Assessment of the Stratospheric Effects on Climate Change and Elucidation of the Dynamical Role” PI : Shigeo YODEN (Kyoto Univ.) Co-I : T. Hirooka, T. Horinouchi, K. Ishioka, K. Kodera, H. Mukougawa, Y. Naito, K. Shibata, and M. Taguchi • Main dynamical processes • in the general circulation of the atmosphere, • which we are interested in this project

  9. Research group

  10. 2. Some key points on S-T dynamical coupling • internal variation vs. response to external forcing • stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events • solar cycle modulation, intermittent volcanic eruptions • multiple time scales • winter polar region • SSW ~ days • NAM/SAM, PJO ~ months • seasonal march • interannual variations, trends • downward propagation of information • wave propagations • “top” boundary condition, reflection • wave-mean flow interaction • mean meridional circulation • amplification mechanism • resonance of wave ? • stochastic resonance ? • ??? Baldwin and Dunkerton (2001)

  11. Combined effects of QBO and 11-year solar cycle on the winter hemisphere in a stratosphere-troposphere coupled system • We performed parameter sweep experiments to study the sensitivity and use a large sample method for significance test Influence of solar cycle modulations in W or E phase of QBO difference of [T ] in (K) between Solar Max run and Solar Min run K. Ito, Y. Naito, and S. Yoden (2009, GRL ) significance test Warm Cold >95% >80% >95% >80%

  12. Frequency distribution of time-mean zonal-mean temperature Solar Max runs and Solar Min runs in W or E phase of QBO • [T ] changes in the winter pole caused by solar heating anomaly around the stratopause are consistent with Labitzke relationship • However, the difference is much smaller than that caused by the QBO with heavy overlapping of the PDFs

  13. Impact of the stratospheric sudden warming in the tropical troposphere K. Kodera, N. Eguchi, and T. Ichimaru 0 C T10NP <80N-90N> -40 -80 -61 C T50EQ <20S-20N> -67 E W W -73 2009 2006 2007 2008 2009 January major warming has a huge impact on the tropical stratosphere

  14. (III) 24-30 Jan (II) 16-22 Jan (I) 8-14 Jan U, EPF Zonaly averaged ω 30 100 300 1000 40N 40S EQ 40S EQ 40N 40S EQ 40N

  15. Impacts of SSW and VI on O3 Composite O3 (%) evolution during SSW (SCO < -3.0) K. SHibata 30 events in 5-member simulation (MRI-CCM) for 1980-2004 40S20SEQ20N40N 10+0 10+1 P 10+2 0 0 0 0 +40 +40 +40 +40 -40 -40 -40 -40 10+3 -40 0 +40 T (days)

  16. VI O3 (%) evolution in NH Composite O3 (%) evolution during VI (SCO > +2.5) 36 events in 5-member simulation (MRI-CCM) for 1980-2004 40S20SEQ20N40N 10+0 10+1 P 10+2 +40 +40 +40 +40 +40 0 0 0 0 0 -40 -40 -40 -40 -40 10+3 T (days)

  17. Influence of ENSO toTropical/Subtropical Wave Driving (WD) in WACCM Masakazu Taguchi (Aichi Univ. of Education) (1) ENSO influence in WACCM • We compare 2 perpetual JAN runs, each 3650 days long: one for La Nina and the other for El Nino SST conditions. • We make a diagnostic analysis based on TEM equations. • Taguchi (2009, JAS, accepted) Mean changes: El Nino - La Nina [T] [U] － BDC EPF In tropical lower stratos., cooling, increased poleward upward/ flow, and increased WD occur for El Nino. Increased WD by stationary waves including eq. Rossby waves － －

  18. A numerical study of upward-propagating gravity waves in two different MJO phasesHorinouchi (2008, GRL ) High frequency components of w’ Inactive phase of MJO Active phase of MJO

  19. Influence of Stratospheric Circulation on the Predictability of the tropospheric NAM H. Mukougawa, T. Hirooka and Y. Kuroda (2009, GRL ) • We study influence of stratospheric NAM variations to the forecast skill of tropospheric NAM index by using 5-winter (2001/02-2005/06; DJF) archive of the JMA 1-month ensemble forecast dataset. • Prediction skill of ensemble-mean NAM index in the upper troposphere is significantly improved for 5- to 13-day forecast when negatively large NAM indices are observed (weak westerly winds) around 30hPa at the initial time in comparison with stratospheric positive NAM events. Mean Square Error (MSE) of 250-hPa NAM index Classified by 30-hPa NAM NAM < -1 NAM >+1 -1<NAM<+1 significance test heavy shade > 99.9 % shallow shade > 99 % lead time (days)

  20. Predictability limits of stratospheric circulation T.Hirooka (Kyushu Univ.) On the basis of RMSE and AC analyses of JMA one-month forecasts in the stratosphere, the predictability of stratospheric circulations in the NH winter during 2001-2006 is investigated. Small amp Small amp AC Large amp Small amp Predictability (days) RMSE Predictability (days)

  21. and more ……

  22. For your information

  23. the XXV IUGG General Assembly in 2011 Earth on the Edge: Science for a Sustainable Planet28 June - 7 July 2011Melbourne, Australia

  24. Symposia proposed or co-sponsored by ICMA • UNION Symposium (IAGA, IAMAS, SCOSTEP, … ) “Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System – CAWSES-II” A. Rodger (British Antarctic Survey), D. Marsh (NCAR), … • ICMA sponsored Symposia “Middle Atmosphere Science” S. Yoden (Kyoto Univ.), B. Funke (CSIC), D. Murphy (AAD), T. Horinouchi (Hokkaido Univ.) “The Impact of Solar Variability on Earth” U. Langematz (Free Univ. Berllin), W. Schmutz (PMOD/WRC), L. Hood (Univ. Arizona), V. Fomichev (York Univ.), J.D. Haigh (Imperial College), T. Woods (Univ. of Colorado) “Chemistry-Climate Interactions” L. Pan (NCAR), G. Bodeker (New Zealand), J. Burrows (Univ. Bremen), Y. Kondo (Univ. Tokyo), E. Rozanov (PMOD/WRC) “Stratosphere-Troposphere-Ocean Coupling in Weather and Climate”  E. Manzini (INGV-CMCC), J. Alexander (NWRA)

  25. ICMA-SPARC joint symposium “Stratospheric Processes and Their Role in Climate Focussed on the Southern Hemisphere” G. Bodeker (New Zealand), K. Pienaar (Potchefstroom Univ.) • IAMAS-IAGA joint symposium  “External Forcing on the Middle Atmosphere and Lower Ionosphere”  A. Krivolutsky (Central Aerological Observatory), J. Lastovichka (Inst. of Atmos. Phys.)

  26. Thanks !

More Related