100 likes | 276 Views
Regional Freight Perspectives: Questions about the future of volumes. Bill Anderson ( bander@uwindsor.ca ) Ontario Research Chair in Cross-Border Transportation Policy, University of Windsor, www.uwindsor.ca / crossborder / Transportation Border Working Group Dearborn, MI, April 24, 2013.
E N D
Regional Freight Perspectives:Questions about the future of volumes Bill Anderson (bander@uwindsor.ca) Ontario Research Chair in Cross-Border Transportation Policy, University of Windsor, www.uwindsor.ca/crossborder/ Transportation Border Working Group Dearborn, MI, April 24, 2013
Background • Ontario has a trade dependent economy • 80% of trade with the US • US trade greater than interprovincial trade • 75% by truck • 90% of trucks at four crossings • Google: The Border and the Ontario Economy
Traffic projections for new bridge (million vehicles per year)
Some key question on the future of freight volumes • Will the downward trend in non-oil Canada-US trade continue? • Will the average value of truckloads increase? • Will cross-border automotive supply chains expand or contract? • Will global trade across Ontario-US borders increase?
Value per truckload • If value per increases, truck movements won’t keep pace with trade trends • Limited evidence of increase • Factors • Industry mix • Value of goods within industries (shift to high value goods with global competition)
Cross-border automotive supply chains • Automotive industry is in a post-recession growth cycle • Canada’s share of North American automotive investment is down (Globe and Mail, April 12) • “New domestics” more likely to source locally than across the border.
Global trade • Almost 30% of Canada’s marine/rail imports destined to US • Asia-Pacific Gateway project • Expansion potential in Halifax and Montreal • Halifax can handle large draft • Potential for intermodal expansion in Detroit