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Wind Energy Overview: Technology, Economics and Future Evolution

Wind Energy Overview: Technology, Economics and Future Evolution. Brian Smith Team Leader, Turbine Development National Wind Technology Center May 8, 2002. Growth of Wind Energy Capacity Worldwide. Actual. Projected. Jan 2002 Cumulative MW Rest of World = 2,365

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Wind Energy Overview: Technology, Economics and Future Evolution

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  1. Wind Energy Overview: Technology, Economics and Future Evolution Brian Smith Team Leader, Turbine Development National Wind Technology Center May 8, 2002

  2. Growth of Wind Energy Capacity Worldwide Actual Projected Jan 2002 Cumulative MW Rest of World = 2,365 North America = 4,543 Europe = 16,362 Rest of World Rest of World North America North America Europe Europe MW Installed Year Sources: BTM Consult Aps, March 2001 Windpower Monthly, January 2002

  3. International Market Drivers • Europe • high mandated purchase rates (85-90% of retail, 10-12 cents/kWh) • strong government and public commitment to the environment, including climate change • population density & existing developments driving off shore deployment in Europe • Developing World • huge capacity needs • lack of existing infrastructure (grid) • pressure for sustainable development (IDB’s, climate change) • tied aid

  4. Wind Energy Technology At it’s simplest, the wind turns the turbine’s blades, which spin a shaft connected to a generator that makes electricity. Large turbines can be grouped together to form a wind power plant, which feeds power to the electrical transmission system.

  5. Sizes and Applications • Small (10 kW) • Homes • Farms • Remote Applications • (e.g. water pumping, telecom sites, icemaking) • Intermediate • (10-250 kW) • Village Power • Hybrid Systems • Distributed Power • Large (250 kW - 2+MW) • Central Station Wind Farms • Distributed Power

  6. Cost of Energy Trend 1979: 40 cents/kWh 2000: 4 - 6 cents/kWh • Increased Turbine Size • R&D Advances • Manufacturing Improvements NSP 107 MW Lake Benton wind farm 4 cents/kWh (unsubsidized) 2004: 3 - 5 cents/kWh

  7. Finances and Incentives • Current Situation • Wind energy viable at higher wind speed sites(Class 6 – 15 mph annual average @ 10m) • Limited high wind sites in U.S. • Subsidies important to compete • Production Tax Credit • 1.7 cents/kWh (escalating) for 10 years (~ 1.1 cent/kWh reduction in contract price) • deadline pressure increases costs • State and Local tax can be significant • +/- 0.5 cents/kWh impact

  8. NREL’s National Wind Technology Center Research and Development • Basic & Applied Research • World-Class Testing Facilities • Advanced Prototype Development 2-D Dynamic Stall NASA Ames 80’X 120’ Wind Tunnel Yaw angle = 30° 35 Meter Blade Strength Test EW 1.5 MW Drive Train

  9. Wind Resource Mapping • Identifies most promising areas for wind energy development • Employs geographic information system technology to create layers of key information • Used by state energy planners, Indian tribes, and developers • Approach changing from empirical to numerical modeling techniques • Forecasting, resource assessment and site specific inflow quantification methods are likely to converge into a single approach

  10. Unsteady Aerodynamics Experiment • Predicting the aerodynamic loads on wind turbines remains the greatest technical challenge: • Wind is unsteady and three-dimensional. • Rapid changes in direction & magnitude force different flow conditions (stall, skewed flow, shear, etc.) • These conditions are unlike anything experienced by aircraft or helicopters. • Completed joint program with NASA Ames in the 80’ x 120’ wind tunnel to resolve these aerodynamic effects. • Results obtained will provide the benchmark data for aerodynamic code development and advanced blade concepts for the next 5-10 years.

  11. Hybrid Systems Development • Investigate problems associated with integrating multiple generation & energy storage devices • -wind -diesel generation -fly wheels • -PV -micro-turbines -batteries • Develop new control strategies to optimize hybrid operation using multiple hardware components • Test operation of user hardware in on & off line hybrid environment. • water pumping • battery charging • power conversion • ice making • refrigeration Wales, Alaska Control System Installation • Staff are currently in Wales installing innovative, high penetration control system for the wind/storage/diesel power supply system.

  12. NREL’s Component Testing Facilities • NREL operates the only full-scale blade testing facility in the U.S. for MW-scale wind turbines. • NREL operates the only facility in the world for full-system wind turbine drive train testing. • Both facilities are currently operating at maximum capacity. • Larger facilities are necessary to support the development of new low wind speed technology: • 5-MW designs under development • GE/Enron Wind 3.6 MW prototype is built and ready to test 34-Meter Blade Test at Industrial User Facility 750-kW Drive train test in 2.5-MW Dynamometer Test Facility

  13. Wind Integration Monitoring & Analysis • Wind integration barriers: • Fluctuating wind outputs raise concern about system stability and ancillary costs • Wind cannot be controlled or dispatched • Research needs: • Monitor windfarm output to measure the fluctuations, and access ancillary impacts and costs • Assist utilities develop better models of windfarm electrical output for planning, operations, and transmission requirements • Provide technical support to utility staff developing and planning for wind integration • Support the improvement of forecasting techniques to predict output

  14. Challenging DOE Program Goals • Low Wind Speed Technology • Develop wind turbine technology (>100kW) capable of 3 cents/kWh in Class 4 (13.4 mph wind site) by 2010 • Increase area available for wind energy development by a factor of 20 or more • Accelerate achievement of the domestic renewable energy generations capacity goal • Distributed Wind Systems • Reduce the cost of energy from distributed wind systems to $.10-$.15/kWh at Class 3 wind sites (12 mph wind site) by 2007 • Increase distributed energy capacity in the United States

  15. Wind Power Classification • Wind Power Class • Resource Potential • Wind Speed at 10 m (mph) Transmission Line 230 KV and greater Major Load Center • 4-5 • 6 • Good/Excellent • Outstanding • 13-14 • 15+ Wind Resource Class Comparison

  16. *Growth trajectory from NEMS using AEO 2001 assumptions with 3 cent/Class4/2007 technology 60 50 40 Opportunity Competitive Class 4 Technology* GW 30 20 High Renewables 10 EIA/AEO 2001 Renewables Cases Reference 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 Program Goal: 3 cents/kWh Class 4 COE in 2010 Benefits of Low Wind Speed Technology to U.S. Industry • Baseline (15 GW in 2020) • No technology breakthrough • Class 6 Plateau • Expands resource base 20-fold • Reduces average distance to load 5-fold • 35 GW additional opportunity by 2020

  17. Turbines Under Development with Industry Height in meters Height in meters

  18. Turbine Research Prototypes Bergey XL.50 (SWT) AOC 15/50 (NTPT) NPS NW 100 (CWT) WTC 500 kW EMD-1 (NGT) EW 1.5 MW POC (NGT) EW 750i (NTRT)

  19. EW 1.5 MW

  20. Technology Challenges – Very Tall Towers Tall Tower Concepts: (85 – 120 m, 280 – 400 ft) • Steel tube • Truss towers • Pre-stressed concrete • Composite • Hybrid towers • Self-erecting/no cranes Vestas V66 on 117 m tower Development Challenges: • Weight and cost • Shipping • On site manufacturing • Fatigue loading • Tower load feedback control • Foundation cost

  21. Technology Challenges – 5 MW Drive Train Generator and Single Stage Gearbox Integrated Low Speed Source: Multibrid Technology Brochure

  22. A Future Vision for Wind Energy Future Transmission Barriers 2002 Maturing Technology Business as Usual Path Low Wind Speed Technology 3¢/kWh at 13mph 20% of Electricity High Probability of Success 2010 Land Based LWST Mid-West Plains Bulk Power Generator 4-6¢ at 15mph Offshore Path Regulatory Barriers Offshore Wind Ocean Based LWST 5MW Scale Coastal Markets Low Wind Speed Technology Offshore ?¢/kWh at 13mph 20% of Electricity 2010 • Land Based • Bulk Electricity • Wind Farms Wind-Hydrogen Path Cost & Infrastructure Barriers • Land & Ocean • Large & Small • Electricity • Electrolysis • H2 • Wind-H2 Technology • Transportation • Firm Electricity • Industrial • Residential • Unlimited Market • 2030 & Beyond Potential 20% of Electricity Market

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