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Exploring the current water crisis affecting rice production and rural communities, with insights on policy changes, long-term consequences, and potential solutions for sustainable water management.
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The Future of Water for Agriculture on the Texas Gulf Coast Presented by Ronald Gertson Rice Producer and Rural Water Advocate
Who am I? • Fifth generation rice farmer • Frustrated “engineer” • Reluctant rural water advocate • Unapologetic Christian • And today an admittedly angry and somewhat discouraged water planner
Topics I will cover today: • The current LCRA Water Crisis • What is at risk? • What is driving the crisis? • What is being done about it? • What are the long-term consequences? • What can be done to better the situation in the long-term? • Other Surface Water Notables • LCRA/SAWS Water Project – dead or alive • Corpus’ Garwood water rights and a new pipeline • Upstream growth • New power plants? • New reservoirs? • The Groundwater Situation • Groundwater Conservation Districts • HB 1763 and Alphabet Soup • Desired Future Conditions and Managed Available Groundwater • Questions
The Current LCRA Crisis • The LCRA BOD Water Committee is meeting this afternoon to consider a staff proposal that would drastically impact water availability to rice and turf producers in the Gulf Coast Irrigation District (Bay City) and the Lakeside Irrigation District (Eagle Lake). At risk is 25,000 to 50,000 acres of rice production for 2010.
LCRA Staff Proposal for a “Temporary” Change to Water Management Policies • Change the date for setting the curtailment level from Jan.1 to Feb. 15. • Replace the current curtailment curve with a new curve that increases the curtailments in all cases even if the lakes completely refill. • Make unused downstream run-of-river rights available for diversion upstream to meet municipal and industrial demands.
What is Driving the Policy Change? • Current curtailment policy was set by modeling Drought of Record (DOR) conditions with today’s water uses. • Actual inflows to the lakes for the past two years have been about 55% of the lowest two years of the DOR. • Lake levels have fallen faster than ever. • Fact - Current policy would not preserve firm water supplies if current conditions persist.
End Result of Policy Change • Garwood acreage is preserved by contract. • Pierce Ranch? About 4000 acres • Gulf Coast and Lakeside suffer severe cutbacks as follows: • < 900,000 ac-ft – no acreage allowed • @ 900,000 ac-ft – 8000 acres allowed at one district only • @ 1,125 mil. ac-ft – 8000 acres allowed at each district for 16,000 acres total • @ 2.0 mil. Ac-ft (full capacity) – 14,606 at Gulf Coast and 16,579 Lakeside • Curtailment levels at lakes-full is still roughly 34% off a 5-yr average • Lakes are currently at about 813,000! Go figure.
What is Being Done? • LCRA BOD Water Committee meeting for discussion of change today starting at 1:45. • Some time will be spent in closed session. • Will open for public comments at 4:30. • Urging interested parties to be present in moral support of chosen speakers and as silent protesters. • Speakers will be focusing on economic impact, alternative approaches and on the need for thorough vetting of assumptions being made. • Looking to Extension Service for expert support. • Also considering hiring private consulting firm specializing in surface water issues.
What are the Likely Outcomes? • Chance that action on the policy can be delayed until November BOD meeting based on lack of time for proper review. • Chance that some compromise policy can be achieved, but only if persuasive scientific approach can be used. • Once adopted by BOD it will go to TCEQ as a temporary emergency amendment to LCRA’s Water Management Plan. • If producers are unsuccessful with BOD, TCEQ will be a second chance for relief. • Time frame for action is likely 30 days or less with LCRA BOD and 30 additional days with TCEQ.
What are the Long-Term Consequences? • Staff is posing the current policy change as temporary. • If successfully adopted, the same methodology used in this staff recommendation cannot help but be rolled forward into an eventual permanent change to the WMP. • This could mean that we will never be able to return even to the 2009 rice acreages and certainly not to more historic high levels of rice acreage. • This is why the very short time we have to contest the staff proposal is extremely critical and demands all of the attention and resources we can bring to bare. • And it is why I will be leaving as soon as this presentation is over.
What can be done to better the situation in the long-term? Combination of: • Conservation • Conjunctive use of ground and surface water • Development of the off-channel reservoir(s) • Balancing reservoirs in the irrigation districts • Who pays for all of this? • Would have been SAWS under LSWP • Conservation can be cost shared with NRCS through EQIP • Other possibilities are currently unfunded and too expensive for producers to undertake • Potential for new users to help, but no precedent for this
Other Surface Water Notables • Status of the LCRA/SAWS Water Project • Water from the Colorado for Corpus Christi • Upstream growth • New power plants? • New reservoirs?
LCRA / SAWS Status • Would expand water supplies from the Colorado River through a combination of conservation, off-channel reservoir and groundwater for agriculture. • Studies demonstrate that there would not be enough water to send to S. A. after meeting in-basin demands. • SAWS is suing LCRA for breach of contract. • LCRA claims there is no basis for such a suit. • The plan appears to be dead. • SAWS still has needs, though, so stay tuned.
Corpus Christi Water from the Colorado • Corpus purchased 35,000 ac-ft of the Garwood water right in 1997 for $16 mil. • Has not drawn on this right yet. • Engineering studies for pipeline currently underway. • Will likely pump from the Colorado in Matagorda County and connect to the Mary Rhodes Pipeline at Lake Texana (about 40 miles) • No water goes into Texana • Estimated cost $100 mil • Pipeline construction time: < 18 months • Could be using Colorado water by 2020
Upstream Growth • Growth in the Austin area is outpacing earlier projections. • The IH130 corridor is stimulating growth that was not previously planned for. • Unclear who will service all of this new growth. • It is clear that much of the water will come from the Colorado if it is available.
New Power Plants • Power plants are major water consumers • Las Brisas Power plant proposed for the Corpus area likely driving the current move to access the Garwood right. • South Texas Nuclear expansion • White Stallion coal plant proposed • Austin Energy to expand with coal plant • Exelon proposes nuclear south of Victoria • Water availability will be a determining factor for each of these plants
New Reservoirs? • Few traditional sites left for development • 25 year permitting process • Must have water available to fill • Where there is water, topography is wrong • Off-channel reservoirs in the coastal region will be the future • Capture flood flows with high capacity pumps • Transporting water to areas of need a big cost factor
Is Groundwater Our Ace in the Hole? • Let’s take a look and then you decide
Groundwater and Alphabet Soup • GCD – Groundwater Conservation District • TWDB – Texas Water Development Board • GMA – Groundwater Management Area • MAG – Managed Available Groundwater • GAM – Groundwater Availability Model • DFC – Desired Future Condition
GCDs • Groundwater Conservation Districts are the Legislature’s preferred method of managing groundwater. • The regional water planning process has resulted in the proliferation of GCDs over most of the state. • Each GCD can choose its own management scheme within certain parameters.
HB 1763 • Passed in 2007 • Forces GCDs within a Groundwater Management Area (GMA) to do joint planning • Each GMA must provide their Desired Future Conditions (DFC) for each aquifer and aquifer layer under their area by September, 2010. • TWDB uses the DFCs and the GAMs to determine the Managed Available Groundwater (MAG). • Each GCD must then incorporate the MAG into their Management Plan in an effort to manage for their DFC.
DFC/MAG Example • GCD X adopts a DFC that will allow an average decline of 10 feet in the water table of Aquifer Y over the next 50 yrs. • GCD X’s DFC must be determined to be compatible with neighboring GCDs by the GMA in which it lies. • TWDB does iterative runs of the GAM and determines that Z acre-feet of pumpage can occur annually without exceeding the DFC of 10 ft of drawdown. • Z acre feet is passed down as the MAG for GCD X. • GCD X manages the aquifer in such a way as to prevent pumpage from exceeding MAG Z and the DFC of 10 ft.
How can GCD X accomplish the required objectives? • GCD X must adopt a management scheme that does not allow the actual pumpage in the district to consistently exceed Z ac-ft. • When total permitted volumes result in pumpage that bumps up to MAG Z, the district must either turn down all future permit requests or start ratcheting back existing permits to make room for new ones. • Many unknowns about the legalities involved here.
Big Question: Who Owns Groundwater in Place? • Several major landowner groups insist that the landowner owns it even before he pumps it. • The Rule of Capture says that ownership occurs only once it is captured (pumped). • The courts have skirted directly answering this question. • Several current cases could force the Texas Supreme Court to finally answer this question. • The answer matters a great deal. • GCDs operate under the assumption that ownership does not occur until it is captured, therefore a GCD can restrict or even deny access to groundwater so long as there is a scientifically plausible reason for doing so without the risk of a private property takings suit against it.
GMA 15 Progress • Draft DFCs have been generated. • TWDB is accomplishing a draft MAG run. • Will adopt final DFCs by September, 2010. • No conflicts among GCDs so far. • Meetings are open – get with your local GCD to be informed of meetings.
Don’t Lose Hope • Be prepared for the worst, but hope for the best. • We will survive this and live to farm another day • People have to eat. • Pray for rain in the upper basins and for wisdom and reasonable actions in the meantime.
