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Incident Modeling Capability for Air Releases

This capability assists the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare in mapping affected areas, estimating concentrations and number of affected persons, providing addresses, and forecasting contaminant plume movement. It improves incident management, evacuations, planning, training, and exercise development.

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Incident Modeling Capability for Air Releases

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  1. Incident Modeling Capability for Air Releases Idaho DEQ Rick Hardy, Sara Strachan, Wei Zhang IDHW, Office of Epidemiology & Food Protection Kris Carter DVM, MPVM Sponsor: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

  2. Initially Immediately following an emergency atmospheric release, accidental or terrorist, can you assist the Idaho Dept. H&W, Office of Epidemiology by: Mapping affected areas? Estimating concentrations? Estimating number of persons affected? Providing addresses? Later Forecast where the contaminant plume will go tomorrow? i. e. Support Incident Management, evacuations, etc. Support more realistic planning, training and exercise development Request from State Health Department:

  3. Why not use existing models?

  4. Strengths Very fast Good source term module for spills On-site use Real-time meteorological data Ease of use and responder familiarity Deficiencies 1 hour or 6 km cutoff No wind shift w/terrain No fires/plume rise No particulates No deposition No forecast CAMEO/ALOHA

  5. ALOHA Model

  6. Why not use existing models?

  7. Key Features of this CALPUFF Application • Terrain resolution down to 250m • 264 pre-configured source terms • Includes Idaho-specific hazards • Relies on ALOHA source terms for spills • Includes fires, explosions, particulates • Ability to forecast • Outputs affected population estimates and addresses • Includes ground deposition • Initial results very fast (1 hour)

  8. Air Incident Modeling Steps Construct Modeling Domain Terrain Data Land Use Data Source modeling Met From UW MET Pre-processing Manual input of Domain, Source, Met 1 3 2 4 5 GIS Map & Calculation of Population, Addresses Run CALPUFF

  9. Variable Modeling Domains/Resolution 1 • id_4km • CDA_1km • CDA_500m • Lewiston_1km • Lewiston_500m • Lewiston_250m • Riggins_500m • McCall_500m • Boise_1km • TwinFalls_1km • Salmon_1km • Salmon_500m • Pocatello_1km • Pocatello_250m

  10. Daily Met Processing 2 UW MM5 12km and 4km DEQ Linux Cluster 3D.DAT CALMET.DAT for IDAHO 4km Domain Transfer CALMM5 CALMET Optional (On Demand) CALMET CALMET.DAT for Specific Domain

  11. 3 Pre-Configured Source Terms

  12. Industrial ReleasesBased on EPA Risk Management Plans (RMPs) 3.5M lbs

  13. Industrial - Catastrophic Aloha Based Source Parameters

  14. Gravity Flow for Dense Gas Releases

  15. Dense Gas Modeling of Large and Small Anhydrous Ammonia ReleasesConclusion:Approximate with enhanced initial puff dimensions

  16. Transportation Sources

  17. Transportation Spills: Rail & Truck Aloha Based Source Parameters

  18. Pool Fire Scenarios Species Modeled • Benzene • Formaldehyde • Acrolein • Naphthalene • Benzo(a)pyrene

  19. Chemical Warehouse Fire S, Cl combustion by-product emissionsand unburned residual toxics

  20. Wastepile/Tire Fires

  21. Aerial Dispersal

  22. Explosive Dispersal (RDD) Sources“Dirty Bombs”

  23. Explosive Dispersal (RDD)

  24. Explosive Dispersal (ADMLC)

  25. GUI Main Flow Chart 4 Select or Generate Calmet Output Enter Scenario Description Enter Source Location Select Modeling Domain Create Working Directory Create Input Files Customize Source Term Select Source Term Output for CALVIEW/ Surfer and GIS Run Calpuff and Calpost Generate Summary Final Tune

  26. CALPUFF Incident Modeling Interface

  27. Enter Scenario Name and Description

  28. Enter Source Coordinates

  29. Select Domain/Domain Resolution

  30. Lewiston 1 km resolution selected

  31. Lewiston 500m resolution selected

  32. Select Meteorology file. Process it if needed.

  33. Select Source Category and Template

  34. Revise Scenario to fit Incident Details

  35. Review Scenario. Document Run.

  36. Mapoutput example

  37. Number of Persons Affected 5 Streamlined GIS Outputs Censusdata Address Ranges Streetaddressdata

  38. Air Incident Modeling Steps - Before Construct Modeling Domain Terrain Data Land Use Data Source modeling MET Pre-processing Met Data Manual input of Domain, Source, Met GIS Map & Calculation of Population, Addresses Days to complete from scratch Run CALPUFF

  39. Air Incident Modeling Steps - Now Construct Modeling Domain Terrain Data Land Use Data Source modeling MET Pre-processing Met Data GUI for Rapid selection of Domain, Source, Met Pre-Configured/ Pre-Processed New Interface & Streamlined GIS Run CALPUFF GIS Map & Calculation of Population, Addresses 45 – 90 minutes total time!

  40. Example Result:Pocatello Chlorine Simulation Source location

  41. Preliminary Result

  42. (1 ppm) (3 ppm) (20 ppm) Outputs in 1 hour GIS Map Population Estimates Address Ranges

  43. Managing Uncertainties • Wind field uncertainty • Field observation of plume or wind direction • On-line met station observation sites • Depict directional uncertainty on maps • Move toward ensemble Met & AQ runs (someday) • Buoyant plume rise for fire sources • Observer reports of plume height/behavior • Inadequate source term knowledge • site specific information from the field is important • Census problems w/work-day populations

  44. Summary • A New capability for Idaho • Potential new area for other NW-AirQuest jurisdictions? (i.e. new funding source). • Important to manage met uncertainties!! • Consider UW ensemble products to depict plume probability zones?

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