Egbert Holthuis European Commission, DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities

1. Meeting of MISEP Correspondents Stockholm, Sweden7-8 October 2009EU policies dealing with the crisis Egbert Holthuis European Commission, DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities

2. Situation on EU labour markets EU economic recovery plan Dec 2008 Monitoring of the EERP and the NRP Mutual learning with and between MS Key role EU social partners Role of the EU

3. Economic crisis: Labour markets deteriorating Sharp rise in EU unemployment since March 2008 • UR ↑ 2 pps in 1 year to 9% (i.e. by 5 million to ∼22 million overall)

4. For all MS* UR is higher than a year ago • particular y/y-rise inBaltic states, Spain and Ireland (up to 11 pps) • Men are more effected, especially young ones • Unemployment in the EU less affected than in US (↑ 2 vs. 3.6 pps) + Declining numbers of job vacancies Firms’ employment expectations remain negative *Where recent data is available

5. Outlook remains bleak Chart 20: Forecast employment growth Commission forecasts: • Employment ↓ 2.6% in 2009 and ↓ 1.4% in 2010 • UR ↑ to 9.4 (2009) 10.9 (2010) • Baltics, Ireland and Spain (more than 20%) hit hardest • NL, Cyprus least • In line with other international forecasts (ECB, OECD…) Chart 21: Forecast unemployment rates

6. Purpose gather consistent and comparable information on measures which can help with the recovery process in the short-term, i.e. during 2009 and 2010. Information on reforms which are relevant for (i) sustaining aggregate demand, (ii) sustaining employment, (iii) addressing competitiveness problems and (iv) protecting incomes of disadvantaged groups during that period. Monitoring EERP recovery programmes

7. Measures and reforms aimed towards supporting industrial sectors, businesses and companies, Measures and reforms aimed at supporting a good functioning of labour marketsMeasures and reforms aimed at supporting investment activity Measures and reforms that support household purchasing power Budgetary consolidation measures Other measures Classification of measures

8. Categorised according to policy objectives and aims. A distinction is made between short run objectives in response to the economic crisis, and medium/long term aims. As regard short-term objectives measures are classified whether they help in 2009 or 2010 to: sustain aggregate demand; sustain employment, i.e. wasteful shedding; address competitiveness problems; protect incomes of disadvantaged groups. As regard medium/long -term objectives (column J), measures are classified using drop down lists as to whether they help with: adjustment capacity; raising the growth and jobs potential. Measure objectives

9. Timing of the measure As regard the timing of the measure, the dates of the announcement, adoption and the start of the implementation are recorded Duration of the measure The EERP invites to take stimulus measures which are temporary, i.e. the measures have effect only in 2009 and/or 2010 and that will be reversed.. Budgetary dimension of the measure A detailed budgetary dimension of the measure for the year 2009 and 2010 is recorded in millions of Euro (except UK) Additional information

10. Size of fiscal stimulus measures Degree to which there has been transfer of best practices across Europe, especially on the labour market Degree to which EERP measures on the labour market have helped contain the rise in unemployment and alleviated social hardship Degree in which consolidation measures have been taken to ensure that public finance sustainability is not jeopardized EERP output indicators

11. Recovery measures assessment framework: List of relevant policy areas Maintaining employment, creating jobs and promoting mobility Upgrading skills, market labour market needs Increasing access to employment and 22 subdivisions Assessment criteria for measures Effectiveness: dead weight loss; GDP, employment or productivity effects Timeliness: HC investments vs increased benefit levels Being targeted: criteria, timeframes used Consistent with LT: goals: public finances, LT labour supply, flexicurity Size: relative to wage sum Qualitative assessment measures (1)

12. Source: National Reform Programmes (NRP) and EMCO country review 12-13 November 2009 Focus presentation of measures to address the crisis and discussion on coherence with long-term reforms (format to be decided) Pre- and post assessments from so-called sysdem experts Joint EC/OECD questionnaire Qualitative assessment measures (2)

13. Discussions in EMCO (ad-hoc) MISEP Stockholm Measures to maintain and create employment Measures to provide access to employment Improving labour market matching Managing transitions Role Mutual Learning

14. Involvement in design recovery plans at EU and MS level European Works Councils Joint solutions for issues like: valorisation competences, job guidance, recruitment Develop joint positions on social security (activation and adequate safety nets) Shared understanding future challenges EU labour market (ref. 2008 “Joint analysis”) and solutions to achieve these jointly (eg 2009 Summit) Crucial role Social Partners

15. Thank you very much for your attention