Water Conflict: Global Issues and Cooperative Opportunities

1. Water Conflict: Global Issues and Cooperative Opportunities Sandra Ruckstuhl, PhD 2010 Summer Teacher Institute University of Chicago 29 June 2010

2. Structure of Presentation • CONF 695 Water and Conflict • Conflict Analysis and Resolution • Environmental Conflict • Water Conflict • Water and Dennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model • Cases • Conclusion

3. CONF 695: Water and Conflict • Integrate conflict theory, water concepts, and case literature • Case study approach to highlight social and environmental challenges and perspectives at different levels • Critical thinking and internal debate • Guest speakers from the field • Student presentations – on cases, on research, on policy proposals

4. Conflict Analysis and ResolutionPrinciples • Conflict studies = analysisandresolution • Interdisciplinary - social psychology, international re, development studies, cultural studies • Promotes critical thinking about social relationships, needs, aspirations and power between individuals and groups • Conflictis not necessarily bad (innovation) • Violence is a negative manifestation of conflict • Cooperation is an inherent opportunity in everything

5. PEACEMAKING PEACE- BUILDING PREVENTIVE ACTION Conflict Analysis and ResolutionIntegrative Practice

6. Conflict Analysis and ResolutionChristopher Mitchell’s SPITCEROW Model • S = Sources • P = Parties • I = Issues and interests • T = Tactics • C = Changes • E = Enlargement • R = Roles • O = Outcomes • W = Winner

7. Conflict Analysis and ResolutionDennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model

8. Environmental ConflictWhat is it? “Environmental conflict” boils down to conflict (or “disputes”) over environmental resources. Analysis = What is the nature of these disputes? Resolution = How can we address them?

9. Environmental ConflictWhat are the “resources”? • Conflict over non-renewable (finite) resources • Minerals (diamonds, oil, coltan) • Land (property rights) • Conflict over renewable resources • Forests and timber • Air • Water

10. Environmental ConflictWhat are the dynamics?

11. Environmental ConflictWhat are the dynamics? The environment (water resources included) is neither a necessary nor sufficient cause of violent conflict

12. Environmental ConflictWhat are the dynamics? RELATIVE SCARCITY + POOR INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY = POTENTIAL CONFLICT • Supply-, demand-, structurally driven scarcity leads to conflict (Homer-Dixon 1999) • Demographic stress (environment + population) leads to state failure/exploitation (Kahl 2002) • Differential power and differential impacts of environmental degradation (Peluso and Watts 2001) BUT if we think critically and creatively human ingenuity can overcome…

13. Water Conflict History demonstrates peace and cooperation in managing shared water resources.

14. Water Conflict • Popular coverage of and rhetoric around international “water wars” • Indirect role in intrastate, rather than interstate, violent conflict • Internal fragility associated with inequity of water scarcity problems • Problems with quality and quantity

15. Water Conflict • Environmental change (including global warming) means more water in some areas, less water in others, and pollution worldwide • Environmental change can cause social stress and lead to conflict if institutions cannot adjust to those changes in a productive way

16. Water Conflict A source of destruction, poverty & dispute A source of production, growth & cooperation • Drought • Flood & inundation • Landslide • Desertification • Contamination • Epidemic & disease • Dispute, even conflict • Healthy people • Healthy ecosystems • Food production • Energy production • Navigation • Cultural Value • Cooperation

17. Conflict Analysis and ResolutionDennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model

18. Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Parties There are many different users of water: • Water for people (supply and sanitation) • Water for environment (ecosystems) • Water for food (irrigation) • Water for energy (hydropower) • Water for other purposes (e.g., culture or religion) They have different, sometimes competing needs.

19. Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Parties • upstream vs. downstream • urban vs. rural • rich vs. poor • haves vs. have-nots

20. Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Parties • Water resources (e.g., rivers, aquifers, lakes) cross different kinds of jurisdictional lines • Interstate • Intrastate

21. Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Issues Relative scarcity + institutional capacity deficiencies = conflict • Ownership • Who has the right to it? • Consumption • How should it be used? • Distribution • Who has access and who does not? • Management • How should it be governed?

22. Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Issues

23. Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Issues

24. Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Issues

25. Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Issues Direct/indirect control over resources = power • Control over supply (domestic and industry) • Control over food production (domestic and export) • Control over environment (drought and flood) • Control over health issues (diseases) • Control over energy production (hydropower)

26. Three Pillar ModelConflict Conditions: Individual/Societal Water Scarcity 2025

27. Three Pillar ModelConflict Conditions: Individual/Societal

28. Three Pillar ModelConflict Conditions: Societal/International Projected Population Developing & Transition Countries (DTC) and OECD Mega cities Rapid urban growth in secondary cities & towns Still many in fragile rural areas

29. Three Pillar ModelConflict Conditions: International More than 260 river basins with more than 2 countries…

30. Three Pillar ModelConflict Conditions: International Tensions longstanding and growing with demand…

31. Three Pillar ModelConflict Conditions Physical Effects of Climate Change • Increased variability, availability and access to resources • Changes in precipitation • Glacial melt • Reduced quality of land (erosion, contamination) • Increased desertification • Changes to crop seasons • Changes in biodiversity • Rising sea levels • Flooding coastal areas, including urban habitats and farmland • Disruption of aquatic habitats and fish populations • Natural disasters and extreme weather events (i.e. hurricanes, flash floods, droughts, landslides, wild fires, spread of disease and pestilence)

32. Three Pillar ModelConflict Conditions Social Impacts of Climate Change • Loss of livelihoods • Economic shocks and instability • Food shortages and food insecurity • Human health impacts (e.g. disease) • Food insecurity • Trade relations • Migration • Political instability and state fragility • Spillover effects impacting neighboring areas Inequitable impacts and social tensions

33. Three Pillar ModelConflict Resolution • Conflict prevention (early intervention/diplomacy) • Conflict management (security operations and peacekeeping) • Conflict settlement (coercive peacemaking) • Conflict resolution (non-coercive peacemaking) • Conflict transformation (social cohesion, resilience, capacity)

34. Three Pillar ModelConflict Resolution Building capacity to deal with conflict: Organizations (e.g., policy and official administrative structures) and Institutions (e.g., norms, values, perceptions, behaviors, knowledge)

35. Three Pillar ModelConflict Resolution Environmental Peacebuilding Capitalizes on ecological interdependencies to promote social, economic, and political relationships through joint environmental management and benefit sharing Opportunities both for prevention and transformation are everywhere…

36. CasesNile River Basin

37. CasesThe Sahel Region

38. CasesYemen

39. CasesIsrael and the Palestinian Territories

40. CasesThe Dead Sea

41. CasesIndus River Basin

42. THANK YOU.