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A Method for the More Accurate Measurement and Communication of Model Error

A Method for the More Accurate Measurement and Communication of Model Error. Scott Fortmann-Roe University of California, Berkeley. Predictions. 1) More accurate assessment of prediction error. 2 ) More accurate models. Inferences. 3) More accurate measures of significance.

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A Method for the More Accurate Measurement and Communication of Model Error

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  1. A Method for the More Accurate Measurement and Communication of Model Error Scott Fortmann-RoeUniversity of California, Berkeley

  2. Predictions 1) More accurate assessment of prediction error 2) More accurate models Inferences 3) More accurate measures of significance 4) Altered inferences and conclusions

  3. The Method: A3

  4. Applications

  5. Housing Market Predicting housing price based on house and market attributes Harrison D, Rubinfeld DL (1978) Hedonic housing prices and the demand for clean air. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 5: 81–102.

  6. Adjusted R2: 0.60; p-Value < 0.01

  7. A3: Linear Model

  8. A3: Random Forest Model

  9. Environmental Productivity Measure utility of an ecosystem based on different physical attributes Maestre FT, Quero JL, Gotelli NJ, Escudero A, Ochoa V, et al. (2012) Plant Species Richness and Ecosystem Multifunctionality in Global Drylands. Science 335: 214–218.

  10. Adjusted R2=0.56; p-Value < 0.01

  11. A3: Linear Model

  12. A3: Random Forest Model

  13. Applications Recap • Explained an additional 15-16% of the squared error • Significantly altered inferences and conclusions about the underlying systems

  14. Questions….

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