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Developing Air Quality Management Strategies in Liaoning Province, NE China

Developing Air Quality Management Strategies in Liaoning Province, NE China. Mike Holland Workshop on Mitigation of Air Pollution and Climate Change in China Oslo, 17-19 October 2004 http://www.emrc.co.uk/. Acknowledgements. Many Chinese experts Many EU experts, led by AEA Technology

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Developing Air Quality Management Strategies in Liaoning Province, NE China

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  1. Developing Air Quality Management Strategies in Liaoning Province, NE China Mike Holland Workshop on Mitigation of Air Pollution and Climate Change in China Oslo, 17-19 October 2004 http://www.emrc.co.uk/

  2. Acknowledgements • Many Chinese experts • Many EU experts, led by AEA Technology • Liaoning EPB • Municipal EPBs and EMCs • Staff of enterprises that cooperated with the programme • Office staff of the air quality management component

  3. Content • UK experience • Liaoning Integrated Environmental Project • Case studies • Issues • Scales of analysis • Health data • Cost data • Implementation • Conclusions

  4. UK experience • 800 year problem

  5. UK experience • 90% reduction in urban concentrations • Cleaner fuels • Relocated industry • Tall stacks

  6. UK experience • But some people were not very happy…

  7. UK experience • And what about traffic? • NOx • CO • VOCs • Diesel particles • …

  8. Lessons from UK experience • Air pollution is not just an urban issue • Coal burning was not the only problem • Many solutions are not expensive - UK development unaffected by pollution policy • Multi-Agency response now needed • Cost-effective solutions are available

  9. Liaoning Integrated Environmental Programme (LIEP) 1999-2004 • Jointly funded by EU and Chinese Government • 8 components, including… • Raising environmental awareness • Air quality management • Energy management • Cleaner production • Industrial restructuring

  10. Cities in the LIEP • 5 cities • Anshan • Benxi • Fushun • Liaoyang • Shenyang • Now being extended to all 14 cities in the Province

  11. Framework for analysis

  12. Fushun – Emission inventory for 2000

  13. Emission inventory differentiated by height of release (Fushun, 2000) Stationary, non-fugitive sources only

  14. Anshan – contribution to TSP emissions

  15. Problem • Indoor air quality issues overlooked • May be addressed through some urban restructuring plans

  16. ADMS used for dispersion modelling, 1 x 1 km grid in cities Fushun, PM10, 2000, green areas only Meet Class 2 limit

  17. Contributions to TSP and PM10Anshan case study TSP PM10 Regional background Emission inventory sources Emission inventory Sources (0.71) Regional background (0.47) Fugitive emissions Fugitive emissions (0.36)

  18. Another problem • City by city analysis did not deal with regional framework • Pollutant imports • Pollutant exports

  19. Possible solution: RiskPoll Model ( jaasspadaro@aol.com ) • Tested in many developing countries • Designed for regional assessment • Health and environmental assessment • Inhalation and ingestion • PM, SO2, NOx, CO, heavy metals… • Fully documented

  20. RiskPoll • Minimum data requirement: • Population density within 500 km and 1000 km of source • Can add more data, e.g. on meteorology and stack parameters to improve calculations • Results compare well with other more complex models

  21. Quantifying health impacts • European (CAFE Programme), USEPA approach: • Convene expert groups • Chinese Projects • Ad hoc, project by project, approach • LIEP – Review by Prof Xu Zhaoyi • Paper by Kristin Aunan and Xiao-Chuan Pan • Paper by Ramon Ortiz • …

  22. Quantifying health impacts:What is the question? • How big are the impacts of air pollution? • Useful to see if air pollution is so serious that it needs to be addressed • But of possibly limited relevance to quantification of possible actions to improve air quality

  23. Quantifying health impacts:What is the question? • How big are the impacts related to a reduction in pollution? • Much more relevant to specific methods for emission control • The policy question when it has been decided that air quality impacts should be addressed

  24. Quantifying health impacts:Key issues for consistency • Which pollutants? • PM • Which size fractions? • Which chemical species? • SO2, NO2, ozone, PAH, metals • Which effects? • Tendency to underestimate total burden on health (?)

  25. LIEP Health Impact Assessment Model

  26. Health impacts, Anshan baseline

  27. Attributing damage to source type in Anshan

  28. Estimating costs (European and US perspective) • Prone to overestimation • Omission of cost-effective options • Failure to account for innovation • Often based on worst case assessment

  29. Illustrative cost curves(note - this ignores cost-saving measures)

  30. Example of overestimation from Europe – National Emission Ceiling/SO2/UK

  31. Car price data for the UK 2001 cars much better than 1989 cars, but a lot cheaper Car price relatively insensitive to improvements in emissions control Other factors dictate pricing strategies

  32. Example of underestimation of costs • European Commission’s CBA of directive on NO2, PM10, SO2 and lead air quality standards • Final directive pushed compliance much more to hot-spots than had been anticipated in the CBA • Rare example of overestimation

  33. CBA of district heating development programme in Anshan

  34. Benefit-cost ratios for projects at Angang steel works

  35. Cumulative health benefits of projects assessed for Anshan Benefits Benefit (Million RMB) Benefits – Costs Project number (ranked by decreasing B:C ratio)

  36. Implementing air quality action plans • Plans may cover many sectors • Energy industries • Manufacturing industries • Housing • Transport • Urban planning • … • Most efficient solutions may require many actions by many different groups

  37. Action Plan Tracker • Logs data on pollution control options: • Costs • Effectiveness • Additional impacts (congestion, noise, local economy) • Implementation process (responsibility, timescales, etc.) • Progress • Stakeholder comments

  38. Summary of recommended actions to improve air quality in Liaoning • District heating development and improvement • Improved coal quality • Better energy efficiency • Control of fugitive sources (pave roads, protect storage piles, plant trees) • Emission standards for new vehicles, better fuels • Active promotion of non-car options (bicycles, public transport)

  39. Recommendations for improving AQ Management Process • Develop consensus view on health impact assessment • Include indoor and regional analysis as well as local assessment • Disseminate information more effectively • Develop database of control techniques • Use management systems to keep track of progress and identify problems early

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