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Presence/absent of species in grid-cells across the landscape explained by:

Discover the impact of environmental and species attribute variables on species presence/absence in a grid cell landscape. Explore the hierarchical model structure and data thinning effects on Protea cynaroides and Sorocephalus imbricatus. Evaluate the projected distribution and uncertainty of exotic species Hakea sericea in the Cape Floristic Region.

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Presence/absent of species in grid-cells across the landscape explained by:

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  1. Presence/absent of species in grid-cells across the landscape explained by: • a suite of environmental variables (23) • plus species attribute variables (5) • spatial effects

  2. Kogelberg-Hawequas sub-region Sample locations, with a 1x1 minute grid overlain (~41 x 107 km = 1554 grid cells) [versus ~37,000 cells for full CFR]

  3. The hierarchical structure of the model

  4. Full Model: Protea cynaroides 10 significant environmental covariates (Betas)

  5. Full Model: Sorocephalus imbricatus 0 significant environmental covariates (Betas)

  6. Data Thinning: Protea cynaroides

  7. Data Thinning: Aulax cancellata

  8. $ T $ T $ T $ T T $ T $ $ T $ T T $ T $ T $ $ T T $ $ T $ T T $ $ T T $ T $ T $ $ T $ T T $ T $ $ T $ T T $ T $ M . a r b o r e u s $ T $ T # S T $ T $ T $ $ T $ T $ T M . a r g e n t e u s T $ T $ T $ $ T $ T $ T $ T $ T $ T T $ $ T T $ T $ $ T $ T T $ T $ $ T T $ $ T $ T T $ T $ $ T T $ T $ T $ T $ $ T T $ T $ $ T $ T $ T T $ P r o b a b i l i t y $ T T $ $ T T $ $ T $ T $ T $ T $ T $ T T $ T $ $ T $ T 0 - 0 . 0 1 0 . 0 1 - 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 5 - 0 . 1 # S 0 . 1 - 0 . 2 # S # # S S # # # S # # S S S S # S # S # # S # S S # S # S # # # S S # S S # S # S # # S S 0 . 2 - 0 . 3 5 # S # S # # S S # S # S 0 . 3 5 - 0 . 6 # # 0 . 6 - 1 S S # S # # # # S S S # # S # S S S # S # S # S # S Sister-Species “Ghosting” M. arboreus M. argenteus

  9. Hakea sericea (silky needlebush), introduced from Australia: projected distribution and uncertainty in distribution.

  10. Species distribution predictions of the full Cape Floristic Region

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