Extend, Embrace, Integrate!

1. The Future of Climate & Geo-ScienceDr. Robert BishopPresident, ICES FoundationGeneva, Switzerland

2. Extend, Embrace, Integrate! • Weather – Climate • Weather – Climate – Geophysical • Weather – Climate – Geophysical – Biophysical • Natural Sciences – Socioeconomic Sciences We are headed for an ‘holistic’ world model

3. WEATHER & CLIMATE ENVIRONMENT CIVILISATION BIOSPHERE SOLAR SYSTEM EARTH SYSTEM The Bigger Picture

4. Nature isSeamless, Borderless & Integrated!

5. Predicting future conditions on Earthinvolves understandingmanycomplex non-linear interconnected systems

6. Specialization hasstrength & weaknesses. we have been treating the sciences as separate stovepipes and silos over the past 200 years! • In Research • In Research Funding • In Publishing • In Peer-review • In Conferences • In University Faculties • In Government Departments

7. The New Grand Challenge To view the Earth as a whole and take an Holistic Approach • Multi-science (physical, chem, bio, socio-economic) • Multi-scale (spectral, spatial & temporal) • Seamless Time for Integration vs. Dis-Integration!

9. ICES Organisation Structure Swiss based Not-for-profit Foundation Public-Private Partnership Broad Scientific Participation Inter-disciplinary Governance Participation by Int’l Organisations Experts Committee, Ethics Committee

10. Why Public-Private Partnership? • Fast • Agile • Simple • Flexible • Responsive • Non-political • Independent • New sources of funding

11. Why Switzerland? History ofinternational humanitarianism Global thinking, neutral, trusted country Science literate, educational infrastructure Proximityto global policy bodies: UNEP, WBCSD, IUCN, WWF UNISDR, WHO, UNHCR, ICRC WMO (WCRP, WWRP), GEO WTO, WEF, UNCTAD, ILO, ITU, EBU, ISO Partnerships: CERN, ETH, Canton Universities

12. ICES Top Priorities • Maintain dedicated HPC in the top 10 of machines worldwide • Improve global level modeling mesh resolution, uncertainty management and parameterization • Build next generation Earth System Models by integrating weather, climate, bio, geo, space & social sciences • Supply backup HPC cycles andsoftware engineering support to national and regional centers worldwide • Build consultation & communications channels with key Int’l Organizations & NGOs

13. ICES Core Actor’s Network • World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) - World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) • European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) • European Network for Earth System Modelling (ENES) • Group on Earth Observations (GEO Portal, GEO Grid) • Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere (COLA), IGES • International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) • UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction • National Disaster Management Agencies • National Meteorology Bureaus • National Geological Surveys • Global Earthquake Model • National Climate Centres • National Ocean Centres • National Space Centres • Research Universities

14. ICES Resource Allocation WEATHER & CLIMATE SOCIAL SYSTEMS 50% to next-generation model development 25% to global climate & earth systems community support 25% to developing world ENVIRONMENT SOLAR SYSTEM BIOSPHERE EARTH SYSTEM

15. ICES and Society WEATHER & CLIMATE • Food • Water • Health • Energy • Transportation • Sustainability SOCIAL SYSTEMS ENVIRONMENT SOLAR SYSTEM BIOSPHERE EARTH SYSTEM

16. ICES and Disaster Risk Management WEATHER & CLIMATE SOCIAL SYSTEMS ENVIRONMENT • Community Resilience • Adaptation & Mitigation • Planning & Relief Strategies • Precursor signals SOLAR SYSTEM BIOSPHERE EARTH SYSTEM

17. ICES and Geoengineering WEATHER & CLIMATE SOCIAL SYSTEMS ENVIRONMENT • Climate Remediation • CO2 Removal • Solar Radiation Management • Unintended Consequences SOLAR SYSTEM BIOSPHERE EARTH SYSTEM

18. Yokohama Earth SimulatorOpened March 2002, NEC SX-6

19. DedicatedWeather-Climate Systems(TAKEN FROM THE NOVEMBER 2010 LIST OF TOP500 SUPERCOMPUTER SITES)

20. In the next 10 years … • Earth System models will learn to integrate all natural sciences – weather, climate, earth, environmental, helio & planetary sciences, etc • Such models will assimilate much more of our observational data – in situ, ocean, airborne, space based, etc • These models will resolve fine-detailed relevant phenomenon – cloud microphysics, convection, vorticity, aerosols, etc • Supercomputing resources, cloud computing & international grids will all play their part, as will Google Earth, Wolfram Alpha, Wikis and Citizen Science • Natural Science & Socioeconomic models will integrate - painfully! • Public-Private Partnerships will emerge as new key players

21. Helping guide the successful transformation of human society in an era of rapid climate change and frequent natural disasters.

22. Many recent events were not predicted nor well understood!

23. 2010 Ash cloud disrupts European economy • Mantle-Crust-Glacier-Rivers-Oceans • Weather-Agriculture-Economy-Society • 150,000 flights cancelled, 15 million re-bookings

24. 2010 BP Oil Slick disrupts Gulf States economy • 87 days of continuous flow • 50km oil slick below the surface • 5 million barrels of oil spilled - largest spill in history

25. 2010 Extreme Rainfall – Northwest Pakistan • Heaviest monsoon in 80 years • 20 million people displaced • 1700+ deaths

26. 2010 Record Heat Wave – Western Russia • Highest temperatures in 130 years • Spontaneous fires – peat bogs, crops, forests • 56,000+ reported deaths

27. 2010 Landslides – Gansu, China • Disruption from 47 hydro-electric projects • Massive deforestation - landslides • 1500+ deaths

28. 2011 Extensive flooding - Queensland • 1 million km2 of land underwater • Highest rainfall on record • 25 deaths - $6 billion insurance claims

29. 2011 Flooding & Mudslides - Brazil • 500 deaths • Highest rainfall on record

30. 2010 Flooding Disasters

31. Other Major Natural Disasters

32. Indeed, Weather and Climate are onlythethin edge of the wedge!