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Nanno Mulder – ECLAC

LAC-KLEMS: A Disaggregated Approach to Evaluate the Economic and Social Impact of ICT in Latin America. Nanno Mulder – ECLAC. Outline. - Introduction & background Recent growth accounting research LAC-KLEMS proposal. - Introduction & background. Background.

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Nanno Mulder – ECLAC

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  1. LAC-KLEMS: A Disaggregated Approach to Evaluate the Economic and Social Impact of ICT in Latin America Nanno Mulder – ECLAC

  2. Outline • - Introduction & background • Recent growth accounting research • LAC-KLEMS proposal - Introduction & background

  3. Background • Low economic growth since 1980s … • … although from 2003 to 2007 growth accelerated to above 4% … • … and employment grew and unemployment fell • … while investment increased

  4. Average per capita GDP growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is over 3% per year between 2003 and 2009 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: PER CAPITA GDP GROWTH RATES (Percentages) No similar growth period has been seen for 40 years

  5. Growth is accompanied by an improvement in labour market indicators LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

  6. - Introduction & background • Recent growth accounting research • LAC-KLEMS proposal - Recent growth accounting research

  7. Growth accounting research on LAC • Research has been done on macro-performance using growth accounts (e.g. Elías, 1992; Hofman, 2000; many national studies) • But little analysis on role of sectors in economic growth and importance of ICT (e.g. Coremberg, 2004 and de Vries, Mulder, dal Borgo and Hofman, 2007)

  8. Source: Aravena, Jofré y Villareal (forthcoming)

  9. Source: Aravena, Jofré y Villareal (forthcoming)

  10. Source: De Vries, Mulder & Hofman (forthcoming)

  11. Role of mobile communications in growth • Project with Internet Interdisciplinary Institute (Universitat Oberta de Catalunya) & Telefonica • Goals Measurement of investment and prices of mobile communications using “microdata” Measurement of contribution of mobile services to productivity in Latin America Period: October 08 – April 09

  12. - Introduction & background • Recent growth accounting research • LAC-KLEMS proposal - LAC-KLEMS proposal

  13. Why LAC-KLEMS? • Little knowledge on MFP at industry level; hypothesis of strong heterogeneity • Same it true for meso impact of ICT • Major shifts in labor market (skilled-unskilled) • Therefore difficult to define, implement and evaluate policies related to ICT and productivity

  14. World-KLEMS • KLEMS is already applied in European Union (Un. of Groningen), USA (Harvard University) and Japan • Similar efforts now under way in China, India, amongst others • In Latin American context: LAC-KLEMS (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico)

  15. LAC-KLEMS objectives are to study • economic growth and productivity at industry level • capital formation and technological change at industry level • Role of ICT in growth and productivity • Role of labour and human skills in growth and changes in the sectoral composition of the economy

  16. Project outcomes • Two types of deliverables: • Analytical databaseby sector and factor inputs comparable across countries in Latin America and elsewhere; complying with highest quality standards • Statistical module, data consistent with those published by NSIs; deviations from these standard rules should at least be supported by the NSIs.

  17. Three phases (36 months) • Growth and Productivity Accounts: • Supply-use tables covering output and inputs • Labor accounts - quantity (hours) and quality (gender, age and skill level) by industry • Capital accounts: investment by asset and industry, capital service estimates by industry (user costs) • Construction of database

  18. Project outcomes • (b) Methodological research on measurement of: • output and inputs • education attainment • capital services, following SNA 1993 recommendations. … adjust concepts and measurement to reality of Latin America • General characteristics: role of informal sector, volatility • Capital: include land and other natural resources?

  19. Project outcomes (cont.) (c) Analysis of LAC-KLEMS database • productivity, production structures • technology and innovation indicators • labor market - skill complementarities • technological progress (innovation)

  20. Consortium members • Coordinator: ECLAC Santiago, Chile • Regional members: - Argentina: ECLAC Buenos Aires INDEC - Brazil: Federal University or Rio de Janeiro IBGE - Chile: ECLAC Stgo. and INE - Mexico: to be defined and INEGI

  21. External advisors • Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen (coordinator WORLD-KLEMS) • Institute of Economic Research of Valencia (IVIE), Spain • Harvard University (Prof. Dale Jorgenson) • OECD (Paul Schreyer)

  22. LAC-KLEMS: A Disaggregated Approach to Evaluate the Economic and Social Impact of ICT in Latin America andre.hofman@cepal.org nanno.mulder@cepal.org

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