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Forests, water & research in the Sierra Nevada

Forests, water & research in the Sierra Nevada. Roger Bales, Sierra Nevada Research Institute, UC Merced. Sierra Nevada watershed research infrastructure . MODIS image. Elev., m. E-W transect of flux towers. 3000. 2400. 1800. 1200. 600. Shorthair Creek 2700 m 8900 ft.

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Forests, water & research in the Sierra Nevada

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  1. Forests, water & research in the Sierra Nevada Roger Bales, Sierra Nevada Research Institute, UC Merced

  2. Sierra Nevada watershed research infrastructure MODIS image Elev., m E-W transect of flux towers 3000 2400 1800 1200 600 Shorthair Creek 2700 m 8900 ft Soaproot Saddle 1100 m 3600 ft San Joaquin Experimental Range 400 m 1300 ft CZO P301 2000 m 6600 ft CZO Main CZO site N-S transect of research catchments Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory

  3. Mountain hydrology – fluxes Motivating questions evapotranspiration precipitation How will this landscape & the hydrologic processes connecting it alter w/ climate warming & land-use/landcover change? infiltration snowmelt sublimation runoff Reservoirs: Snowpack storage Soil-water storage ground & surface water exchange

  4. Mountain hydrology – fluxes Myth: We can, with a high degree of skill, estimate or predict the magnitude of these quantities evapotranspiration precipitation infiltration snowmelt sublimation runoff Reservoirs: Snowpack storage Soil-water storage ground & surface water exchange

  5. Mountain hydrology – fluxes My biases: Improved predictions require better process understanding The basis for process understanding is new measurements Processes are coupled & best studied together evapotranspiration precipitation infiltration snowmelt sublimation runoff Reservoirs: Snowpack storage Soil-water storage ground & surface water exchange

  6. Basic water balance Precipitation = Evapotranspiration + Runoff = +

  7. 3oC 50% more runoff in snow dominated vs. mixed rain-snow catchments 5oF Implication for 2oC warmer climate: Reduce runoff by 10-40% in mixed conifer forest (assuming ecosystems adapt) 6000’ 7000’ 8000’ 0.1 increase per 350 m (1150 ft) Decreasing temperature Increasing snow fraction Decreasing vegetation Coarser soils

  8. Annual evapotranspiration mm in 800 32 700 28 600 24 500 20 400 16 300 12 0 1000/ 2000/ 3000/ 3300 6600 10000 • Highest current evapotranspiration in rain to rain-snow transition region of mixed conifer forest – year-round growth • Lower elevation is water limited • Higher elevation is cold limited Elevation, m/ft Goulden et al., submitted

  9. Sierra Nevada precipitation & snow water equivalent (SWE) – climatological estimate? in >80 70 50 35 25 15 10 in >28 24 16 8 3

  10. Most snowmelt comes from elevations above most measurement of precipitation or snowpack

  11. Mountain water cycle & climate warming oF Land surface temperatures • Warming by 2–6oC (4–11oF) drives significant changes: • rain-vs-snow storms * • snowpack amounts * • snowmelt timing * • flood risk • streamflow timing * • low baseflows • growing seasons * • recharge? • drier soil in summer • Precipitation changes uncertain Already observed (*) 2 1 0 -1 5-yr average Departure from 1901-2000 mean -2 oF 15 11 7 4 0 -4

  12. Kings basin snowmelt w/ climate warming

  13. Making a water-secure world – the three I’s INFRASTRUCTUREto store, transport & treat water Stronger & more-adaptable INSTITUTIONS Better & more-accessible INFORMATION Water security: the reliable availability of an acceptable quantity & quality of water for health, livelihoods & production, coupled w/ an acceptable level of water-related risks

  14. Making a water-secure world – the three I’s INFRASTRUCTUREto store, transport & treat water Stronger & more-adaptable INSTITUTIONS Ecosystem services Better & more-accessible INFORMATION Water is fundamental to sustainable ecosystem services. Water management therefore translates into managing ecosystem services, and must be a fundamental goal of virtually all such efforts.

  15. A new generation of integrated measurements lidar embedded sensor networks low-cost sensors eddy correlation isotopes & ions satellite snowcover sap flow sediment

  16. Basin-wide deployment of hydrologic instrument clusters – American R. basin Strategically place low-cost sensors to get spatial estimates of snowcover, soil moisture & other water-balance components Network & integrate these sensors into a single spatial instrument for water-balance measurements.

  17. Building the knowledge base to enhance forest & water management

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