Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) and Remaining Risk Safety Enhancements

1. Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)and Remaining Risk Safety Enhancements North Asia Regional Aviation Safety Team Bangkok, Thailand January 2007 Kyle Olsen – Glenn Michael

2. COMMERCIAL AVIATION SAFETY TEAM (CAST)2020 Safety Plan StatusDecember 7, 2006

3. 47 Safety Enhancements 39 Complete 08 Underway 2 6 39 Risk Reduction Estimated To Date 65.0 % 2020 Plan Risk Reduction Estimated 70.9 %

4. 2020 CAST SAFETY PLAN – 47SE; 39 Complete; 6 Underway 6 7.9 1 15.1 2 15.0 3 .5 4 1.1 5 .4 7 7.9 8 7.9 9 .8 10 16.4 11 3.4 12 5.3 13 .8 14 5.7 15 9.2 16 .7 17 0 18 1.5 19 0.1 20 3.6 21 1.5 23 7.4 25 6.0 24R2 2.4 26 2.3 28 5.0 29 1.9 30R1 0.7 31 12.2 32 0 34R1 0 27 8.8 39 0 40 0 47 1.2 49 1.5 50 2.6 51 0 52 0 46 1.6 120 0 53 2.7 55 1.7 59 0 60 1.5 78 0 84 .8 85 1.2 Complete except for measurement COMPLETE ON TRACK IN QUESTION LATE JIMDAT Score/2007 implementation level

5. Late Safety Enhancements Safety Enhancements Individual Risk Reduction • 30R1 Human Factors and Automation 0.7 • 47 CRM Training for Tower Controllers 1.2 NEEDING MEASUREMENT • 27 Risk Assessment 8.8 • 31 AMT Ground and Simulator Training 12.2 • 49 SOP’s for Ground Operations 1.5 • 78 Cabin Injury Reduction During Turbulence 0.0

6. Study of Remaining Risks Background Joint Implementation Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

7. Safer Skies COMMERCIAL AVIATION Controlled Flight GENERAL AVIATION Into Terrain CABIN SAFETY Aeronautical Loss of Control Decisionmaking Passenger Interference Loss of Control Uncontained Engine Failures Weather Passenger Seat Belt Use Runway Incursion Controlled Flight Carry-on Baggage Into Terrain Approach and Landing Child Restraint Survivability Weather Turbulence Runway Incursions HUMAN FACTORS IMPROVED DATA IN OPERATIONS & & ANALYSIS MAINTENANCE

8. Resource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction 100% 10000 Risk Reduction APPROVED PLAN $ 9000 Total Cost in $ (Millions) 8000 75% 7000 6000 $ Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements 50% 5000 Resource Cost ($ Millions) 2007 2020 4000 3000 25% 2000 $ 1000 $ $ 0% 0 All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020 Implementation Level) Completed Completed + Plan (2020 Implementation Level) Completed + Plan (2007 Implementation Level)

9. CFIT, Approach-and-Landing, and Loss-of-Control Major Accidents Western-Built Commercial Jets CFIT accident rate Approach-and-landing accident rate Loss-of-Control accident rate 3 year moving average (CFIT) 3 year moving average (Approach and landing) 3 year moving average (Loss of Control) Major Accidents per million departures Year * 1 January through 1 September 2006 ** Worldwide departure/rates are estimated through August 31, 2006. Departure data not available for Eastern-Built Aircraft Source: Ascend, Boeing

10. All Regions Combined Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted World Wide (2007 Implementation Values) 100 90 Risk Eliminated 80 Risk Remaining 70 60 Portion of Risk (percent) 50 40 30 20 10 0 LOC-I SC F-NP Midair Ice CFIT SCF- PP Total 1987-2001 Equivalent Part 121 Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy

11. Study of Remaining Risks Results Joint Implementation Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

12. Remaining Risk • Cargo • Icing • Midair • Maintenance

13. Status of RR SEs • 24 SEs and 11 R&D Projects were developed by RR JSITs • JIMDAT has evaluated the 24 SEs and comments by CAST Members have been addressed. • The JIMDAT recommends 18 SEs for G level approval. • 1 SE is recommended for CAST approval in support of international activities • 4 SEs are recommended to be retained as Safety Enhancements Reserved for Future Implementation (SERFI) • 1 SE was eliminated by the JIMDAT • R&D projects have yet to be evaluated • Planned action for February JIMDAT

16. Regional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1996 through 2005 Europe 0.6 C.I.S.1 JAA - 0.6 Non JAA – 1.2 United States and Canada 0.4 China 0.23 Middle East 2.7 Asia 1.9 (Excluding China) Africa 9.7 Latin America and Caribbean 3.2 Oceania 0.0 World 1.03 Accidents per million departures 1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate.

17. Regional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1996 through 2005 COSCAP CIS Specific CIS Projects Europe 0.6 C.I.S.1 ESSI 35 SEs JAA 11 SEs EASA 62% reduction JAA - 0.6 Non JAA – 1.2 United States and Canada 0.4 COSCAP NA, SA, SEA 27 SEs in work 60% reduction CAST 65 SEs 39 complete 26 in work 76% reduction China 0.23 Middle East 2.7 Asia 1.9 (Excluding China) COSCAP GS (2006) COSCAP BA (late 2005) Africa 9.7 Latin America and Caribbean 3.2 Oceania 0.0 PAAST CFIT and ALAR COSCAP UEMOA (late 2005) World 1.03 COSCAP AM Accidents per million departures 1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate.

19. SE-165 MidairTCAS Policies and Procedures • Prevent midair collisions by requiring flightcrews to follow TCAS Resolution Advisories (RA’s), establish procedures for TCAS range setting and requiring that TCAS-capable simulators and flight-training devices are used for training TCAS responses and Maneuvers. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

20. SE-164 MidairTCAS Installation • Worldwide installation of TCAS in all aircraft of 33,000 pounds or greater max takeoff weight. • ICAO requirement for aircraft of 5,700kg • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

21. SE-121 CargoStandard Operating Procedures • Reduce cargo-related accidents and incidents by publishing and enforcing clear, concise and accurate standard operating procedures (SOP), and training the rationale behind those procedures • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

22. SE-125 CargoHazardous Materials - HazMat • Reduce hazmat related accidents and incidents develop and implement by regulators, manufacturers (of packaging material) and shipping companies a multi-tier system to identify and safely process undeclared hazardous material. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

23. SE-129 Regulation & PolicyCompliance, Enforcement and Restricted Operations • Regulators should improve their legal processes for compliance, enforcement and operational restrictions. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

24. SE-130 CargoRegulation & Policy - Oversight • Regulators should develop/enhance and implement a system that ensures appropriate inspector coverage for all airlines, sub-contracting, and leasing operations and assign highly-experienced inspectors to operators that require the most oversight • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

25. SE-131 CargoSafety Culture • Reduce cargo-related accidents and incidents by encouraging a culture that enhances operational safety. Safety culture can be enhanced by a safety management system (SMS). • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

26. SE-136 IcingTraining – Engine Surge Recovery • To prevent accidents resulting from an engine surge caused by ice ingestion, airlines should provide adequate training for flight crews to ensure appropriate responses. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

27. SE-163 MidairSee-and Avoid • Prevent midair collisions by improving see-and-avoid capability. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

28. SE-159 MidairAirspace Design • Prevent midair collisions by designing B/C/D airspace to be more easily identifiable, improving the usability of VFR charts and ensuring adequate and timely coordination of airspace design changes to users. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

29. SE-162 Midair • Prevent midair collisions by facilitating aircraft separation for users of advanced navigation systems not receiving ATC separation services. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

30. SE-127 CargoFire Containment • To reduce the occurrence of accidents and incidents from cargo fires, improved cargo containers should be developed to contain (or suppress) fires originating in shipped cargo • Appropriate for implementation in Asia ?

31. SE-133 – IcingTurboprop Aircraft Ice Detection Systems • To prevent accidents caused by in-flight icing, for turboprop aircraft with non-evaporative ice protection systems and non-powered flight controls, install systems that automatically detect ice, measure the rate of ice accretion and warn the crew. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia ?

32. SE-134 IcingAircraft Design - Avionics • Avionic manufacturers and aircraft manufacturers should develop and install smart pitch guidance systems on all aircraft not presently equipped to prevent over rotation in conjunction with a low energy state or aerodynamic degradation due to the presence of ice. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia ?

33. SE-101 Aircraft DesignAdvanced Circuit Protection • Develop and install advanced circuit protection / arc fault breaker technology • Appropriate for implementation in Asia ?

34. SE-169 MaintenancePolicy & Procedures • Airlines, operators and regulators should ensure that procedures are in place related to work cards, shift changes, responsibility and authority for work assignments and that necessary manuals are complete, accurate, available and appropriately used. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

35. SE-170 MaintenanceAircraft Design • Original equipment manufacturers (OEM) should monitor service history to verify that design and procedural assumptions valid. • Operators should adhere to OEM recommendations or report maintenance task difficulties • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

36. SE-172 MaintenanceGap Analysis of Maintenance Process • Identify and correct gaps within and between the maintenance processes that could inhibit the intended design level of safety. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

37. SE-175 MaintenanceFlight Critical Configurations Changes • Airlines/maintenance should provide visible tagging any time the pitot static system is covered. • Preflight procedures should include specific verification that pitot static ports are uncovered. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

38. Capacity The Needs Vary Safety Efficiency

39. Thank you Kyle Olsen – Glenn Michael