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Achieving Zero Emissions and Sustainable Cities: Strategies for CO2 Reduction and Energy Efficiency

This research aims to explore optimal strategies for reducing CO2 emissions in cities in the long term, focusing on three key areas: CO2 emissions reduction, energy-efficient space heating and cooling, and electricity demand reduction. It also examines options for supplying heating, cooling, and electricity needs, optimizing traffic through new services and settlement structures. The study incorporates a city model, building and settlement structure analysis, and Monte Carlo simulations to address various open questions and make informed recommendations.

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Achieving Zero Emissions and Sustainable Cities: Strategies for CO2 Reduction and Energy Efficiency

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  1. WP 1.0

  2. What are the questions? How can CO2-emissions be reduced to zero in cities in the long term? How can the demand for space heating and cooling be reduced to zero in the long term? What are optimal options to supply the remaining demand for heating and cooling? How can the demand for electricity be reduced in the long term? What are optimal options to supply the electricity demand? How can the traffic be optimised by new services and settlement structures?

  3. Steps of the analysis City Model (housholds, services, industry, traffic) Building and settlement structure Settlement and transport structure Equipment with electric appliances in household and service: electricity demand Heat and cooling demand in 2009, 2030 2050,2100 Monte Carlo for traffic sector TIMES model of heat and cold and electricity supply

  4. Development of space heat and cooling demand in cities. Building stock 2009 Climate change New forms of use Refurbishment and demolition Construction Building stock 2030,2050,2100

  5. Development of space heat and cooling demand in cities. Geometry Materials Energy Building typology Heat demand Solar, Wind, Temp- erature data Building model Cooling demand Pattern of use Waste

  6. Development of housing stock Walls Roof Windows Heat Recovery Will the housing stock diverge in the long term to a low energy or passive house standard, even for service buildings? Yes: No: 60 % of the floor space requires still more 60 kWh/(m²a) (climate Corrected for central Europe)

  7. City metrology model

  8. MWh/a MWh/a MWh/a MWh/a MWh/a MWh/a MWh/a Heat demand austrian city 2010

  9. MWh/a MWh/a MWh/a MWh/a MWh/a MWh/a MWh/a Heat demand austrian city 2040

  10. Development of space heat and cooling demand in cities. A few open questions: + what will be the rise in temperature? + will we see refurbishment of average houses to low energy or passive house standard? + what will be the standard for new buildings? + what will be the average space demand per person?

  11. Heat demand of the service sector.

  12. Times model with heating and cooling sector. Production of district heating and electricity: + price + kg CO2/kWh Energy delivery to houses: + district heating and cooling + gas, biogas, (hydrogen) + oil, methanol + wood pellets + electricity Heating technologies: + condensing boilder (+solar) + micro-chp + wood pellet boiler + heat pump Cooling technologies: + compression cooling + solar cooling + …

  13. Electricity: households short term

  14. Electricity: households long term term Even if we assume that many very efficient technologies are applied in households a certain level of electricity demand will remain. What level should we assume here 1500 kWh ,1000 kWh or 500 kWh per person and year? ?

  15. Development of the service sector. Is housing and service sector spatially correlated? What will be the future development? Which sectors will dominate in the future? What are major drivers for the various sectors? What will be the demand for floor space? Are special house types used? What about the electricity demand? Should we work with simple estimates as published regularly by ISI and make simple extrapolations?

  16. Development of the service sector.

  17. Traffic: simple Monte Carlo

  18. Summary and questions + principle approach to deal with space heat and cooling is developed, still a number of input parameters missing (future climate) + should we use the extrapolation of existing cities or model cities (how should we generate the distributions: population services,…) + should we assume a certain level of carbon free electricity that can be purchased by the cities? + traffic model still in the design phase

  19. A first sketch of the working steps: • The design of the model will be as follows: • We start from the possible city morphologies already presented. • For each morphology we analyse the population and workplace densities. • Then we identify the building types that could serve such a density and which are currently installed. • Then we have to take into account the building stock that will still be available in 2050/2100. • Then we get from WP 2 the specific heat, cooling and electricity demands for the kind of buildings and offices, and so forth or we assume a set of certain housing types and leave the final decision to the model, also the decision about the refurbishment status of the existing housing stock is left to the model (actually we have two models). • The we calculate with the model he heat, cooling and electricity demand in spatially resolved manner. • Then we give various options fort he heat and cooling and electricity supply and design with the model supply structures necessary to reach certain emission limits. This is then done with the second model. • Then we can make judgements which city structure is better suited to reach low emission limits. • Then we have to do something similar including the traffic!

  20. What are the questions? 1.0 What is required to reduce in cities CO2-emissions in future to zero? 1.1 How will in future the space heating and cooling demand be, how the demand for hot water? What will be the demand for process heat? What will be the demand for electricity? 1.1.1 How will the housing stock develop? What will be the quality of refurbishment programmes? Will low or even passive houses be the future standard. How will the hot water demand develop in houses? 1.1.2 Which services will dominate urban economies? 1.1.2.1 How much space will be required by these services? Will special Housing types be used? 1.1.2.2 How much appliances and electric and other devices are applied? 1.2 What supply options are feasible? Can district heating and cooling be applied? Will gas/biogas/hydrogen networks be a feasible option? Do heat pumps offer a unique chance to supply heat and cold?

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